SERIE A FRIDAY: The Ultra previews CAGLIARI v NAPOLI with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
CAGLIARI V NAPOLI
5.30pm Friday Night Football from Europe comes from Serie A on Betdaq Betting Exchange! Cagliari host Napoli as the defending champions are making the trip south – unfortunately for Conte’s side they are already out of the title race this season! Inter Milan have been running away with that – they are currently nine points clear. They did drop points in back-to-back games however; so you could call this an absolutely a must win for Conte’s side to even put a little pressure on. Cagliari are sitting at the other end of the table; a six point cushion on the relegation zone is a nice cushion to have, but they still must be looking over their shoulders.
Given the gulf in class between the sides, it’s no surprise that Napoli come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.67 with Cagliari 6.4 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. You could make the case that Napoli have been quite average this season, and they have done well to be included in the title race for so long into this season. Their average xG created of 1.50 is the seventh best attacking figure in Serie A – not the dominant numbers you’d associate with a title winning side. For example, the Inter attacking figure is 2.03. Conte teams are always about relentless organisation and winning ugly. Their average xG conceded of 1.14 is the fourth best defensive figure in Serie A, and that is impressive but on its own, not enough given the lack of attacking quality. They come into this one in decent nick though; they’ve won their last three.
Obviously with the Champions League exit at the Group Stage – embarrassing really given the top 24 qualify – Napoli can now focus on the domestic games given the lack of midweek action. Cagliari are on a poor run coming into this game; there actually aren’t many positives at the moment. It’s been six Serie A games without a win, and their average xG created of just 1.09 is the third worst attacking figure in Serie A. The worst figure is 1.06, so there obviously isn’t much in it. Their average xG conceded of 1.52 is in the bottom five defensively as well. Those are figures that scream relegation battle rather than anything else – they are probably lucky to have the six point cushion.
You can poke holes in this Napoli side – they aren’t the dominant force of last season – but they have the defensive solidity to control games against limited sides, and Cagliari’s attacking numbers are simply too poor to inspire confidence that they can create enough to hurt them, even with home advantage. They give away too many chances as well, and it’s hard to see past Napoli here – the 1.67 looks good value to me, I’d have them trading 1.6 and I’m happy to start the weekend with a confident bet.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Napoli to beat Cagliari at 1.67 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SACaNa
