CARABAO CUP FINAL SUNDAY: The Striker previews ARSENAL v MANCHESTER CITY with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ARSENAL V MANCHESTER CITY
4.30pm We have a Carabao Cup Final right out of the top drawer on Betdaq Betting Exchange! Arsenal take on Manchester City at Wembley Stadium on Sunday afternoon and while the domestic Cups have definitely lost their magic in recent years, this is a huge game for both games. This isn’t just a Cup Final; it’s a statement of intent game that could define the remainder of the season for both clubs. You could say that Arsenal have two hands already on the Premier League title; City definitely need a mental blow to try and close the gap at the top of the table which is now nine points.
City desperately need something positive to happen too given their season could effectively be over after this game should they lose. City’s Champions League adventure ended in misery at the Etihad this week. A Federico Valverde hat-trick in the first leg at the Bernabeu had left them needing an almost impossible comeback, and despite early pressure and several big chances, a Bernardo Silva red card for handball in the 22nd minute ended any realistic hope. Vinicius Junior’s brace sealed a 5-1 aggregate loss that felt slightly embarrassing given they went into that tie as clear favourites to progress, and now this Carabao Cup Final represents their last realistic chance of silverware this season.
Compare City’s situation to Arsenal’s! Arteta men are in a superb spot – obviously they took the nine point lead last weekend with City dropping more points, and they sailed through to the Quarter-Finals of the Champions League with a win over Bayer Leverkusen. There really isn’t much between the sides on paper – City have an average xG created of 1.73, which is the third best attacking figure in the Premier League and Arsenal sit just behind them on 1.72. They also have the top two defensive figures in the Premier League; Arsenal have an average xG conceded of just 0.92 is the best defensive figure in the Premier League, and indeed the best figure across all of Europe’s elite leagues. That is a remarkable defensive achievement in a league as competitive as the Premier League. City have an impressive figure too – their average xG conceded is 1.13 – however, recent results suggest City have been far too vulnerable defensively.
Guardiola may be forced into a defensive reshuffle against an Arsenal side that has been ruthlessly clinical all season. You get the feeling here that City will give Arsenal chances at some stage, and with Arteta setting his side up so strongly, it’s no surprise that they could into the game as the favourites. Arsenal are trading 2.52 with Manchester City 3.25 and the draw is 3.3 at the time of writing. This rivalry has shifted considerably in recent seasons. Arsenal are unbeaten in their last six meetings against City – it feels like they are a different side to the one that crumbled under pressure on the title run-in a few seasons ago. Obviously Arteta has yet to translate the excellent Arsenal performance level into a trophy; but this season that changes.
Given Arsenal’s exceptional xG conceded figure of 0.92 and their relentless form, I feel the balance is firmly in Arsenal’s favour here – especially from a mental point of view too. They are fresher emotionally, they are winning consistently across four competitions, and their underlying numbers back up everything you see on the pitch. City dropping points in recent weeks has really knocked their momentum too, and I feel this is the time for Arsenal. I’m happy to take the 2.52 on Arsenal in what should be the most fascinating Carabao Cup Final for many years.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Arsenal to beat Manchester City at 2.52 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
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