SERIE A SATURDAY: The Ultra previews JUVENTUS v SASSUOLO with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
JUVENTUS V SASSUOLO
7.45pm The focus on Saturday from Europe on Betdaq Betting Exchange turns to Serie A Juventus host Sassuolo. Juventus are in a real scrap for the top four, and you’d have to call this a must win game with home advantage. Sassuolo are having a very respectable first season back in the top flight, but at the same time Juventus will surely be thinking they should be winning at home against a newly promoted side. It’s no surprise that Juventus come into the game as the red-hot favourites at 1.37 with Sassuolo 10.5 and the draw is 5.4 at the time of writing.
Juventus come into the weekend in fifth place with 53 points, sitting just one point behind Como in fourth. Cesc Fabregas has been doing a sensational job there, and even though they are a small club compared to Juventus, there’s nothing to suggest that they should drop away as the season goes on. Roma have dropped away in recent weeks; but they are still coming into the weekend only two points behind Juventus. Looking at the xG figures, Juventus are under-performing. Their average xG created of 1.92 is the second best attacking figure in Serie A – only Inter Milan are better going forward with a figure of 2.03 – and their average xG conceded of 1.11 is the third best defensive figure too.
So, why do they sit in fifth then? They haven’t been taking all their chances. On paper, they have genuine title contender numbers, and it’s a little frustrating for their supporters that the results haven’t always matched. They have made a lot of progress this season though – it wasn’t so long ago that Juventus were creating really low xG figures. They have fixed the chances created, now they just need to start converting. Sassuolo, for their part, have had a genuinely impressive first season back in Serie A. Obviously when someone comes up to the top tier, the sole aim is to stay there. We’ve seen the massive gulf in class between the top flight and the rest with the money involved these days.
Their xG figures tell the story of a solid, well-organised promoted side – their average xG created of 1.20 which is in the bottom six attacking figures, but not quite relegation well. The concern is obviously at the back – their average xG conceded of 1.63 is the third worst defensive figure in Serie A. When the sides met earlier in the season, Juventus ran out easy 3-0 winners, absolutely controlling the game. With home advantage now too, it’s hard to see past a comfortable Juventus win here – granted there’s no prizes for tipping 1.37 shots so we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value. However, I’d happily include the 1.37 in any Acca this weekend. Sassuolo are a reasonably solid side, but given the volume of chances they are conceding, I feel Juventus can cover the handicap on the way to winning. Juventus are trading 2.02 to cover a 1.5 goal handicap, and that looks cracking value in a must-win game for the home side in the top four race.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Juventus -1.5 goals to beat Sassuolo at 2.02 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SAJuSa
