LA LIGA SUNDAY: The Ultra previews REAL MADRID v ATLETICO MADRID with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
REAL MADRID v ATLETICO MADRID
8pm We have a blockbuster on Betdaq Betting Exchange from Europe on Sunday! It’s the Madrid Derby from the Bernabeu as Real Madrid host Atlético Madrid. This one arrives on the back of a fantastic week in the Champions League for both sides as they both progressed to the Quarter-Finals, but as always when these two clash there is so much more riding on it than just three La Liga points. Real Madrid come into the weekend four points behind Barcelona in the title race, and Real Madrid know they simply cannot afford to drop points at home – even in a tough fixture like this. Diego Simeone’s side would obviously love to dent the title chances of Real!
While both sides were in action midweek in the Champions League, they effectively had their ties won in the first leg. Real Madrid were utterly brilliant against Manchester City, winning 2-1 at the Etihad on Tuesday to seal a stunning 5-1 aggregate victory. Atletico Madrid came through an extraordinary tie against Spurs where the mistakes from Spurs made the headlines in the first leg. They had done the hard work winning 5-2 at the Metropolitano, and although they lost the second leg 3-2 during the week, that was just a case of getting the job done.
While the two sides are sitting beside each other in second and third, the gulf in class between them has been massive. Real Madrid’s underlying numbers have been exceptional. Their average xG created of 2.09 is the second best attacking figure in La Liga – only Barcelona at 2.21 are ahead of them. Kylian Mbappe has been in phenomenal form since they sacked Xabi Alonso – clearly he wasn’t happy under him. Their average xG conceded of 1.12 is also the second best defensive figure in La Liga, which shows just how well-balanced this side is. Atletico Madrid have an average xG created of 1.65 is the third best attacking figure in La Liga – a solid output but obviously a little average when compared to the big two.
Their average xG conceded of 1.18 is the fourth best defensive figure, not too far off Barcelona and Real Madrid there. It’s no surprise to see Real Madrid as the favourites – they are marginally odds on 1.98 with Atletico Madrid 3.8 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing. Jan Oblak is a doubt with an injury concern, and that would be a massive blow for Atletico missing their key goalkeeper here, he missed the Spurs game midweek. We had three 1-1 draws in a row when the sides met in 2024 and into 2025, but recently we have had drama when the sides have met. We had a 5-2 win for Atletico and then Real won 2-1 when the sides met in January. It’s usually fine margins are in this fixture though.
Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.67 and Both Teams To Score is three ticks shorter at 1.64. Both Teams To Score has landed in eleven of the last twelve meetings between the sides in all competitions, and while Simeone might set up his side to try and frustrate Real, this fixture usually doesn’t stay quiet for long. Plus, given the title race, Real have to go for it and win – a draw is no good given Barcelona lead by a decent margin already. I like goals here and Both Teams To Score at 1.64 looks like a really appealing option.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 1.64 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LLRmAt
