COUNTDOWN TO THE LINCOLN: Lincoln Handicap form for Saturday: TODAY stats and facts for Saturday’s big race, with trainers, the trends and draw analysis. TOMORROW: short list based on the ratings.
CONSTITUTION HILL: Will face seven rivals on his second flat start at Kempton on Wednesday. Nicky Henderson’s former champion hurdler will start at prohibitive odds to follow up on his emphatic flat debut success at Southwell. Should all go well, his next intended target is the Group 3 John Porter Stakes at Newbury on April 18.
LINCOLN HANDICAP GUIDE
🐦 EARLY-BIRD TRAINERS Stables in form on AW this year so far (match them with 10-year turf winners for the opening day at Doncaster in Monday’s Daqman):
AW: Tony Carroll 40, Andrew Balding 38, James Owen 36, Ian Williams 25, George Boughey 17, Karl Burke 17, Michael Appleby 16, Richard Hannon 16, Richard Hughes 13, Charlie Johnston 13, Antony Brittain 12, Michael Herrington 12, David Simcock 12, Archie Watson 12, Stuart Williams 11, Scott Dixon 10, Jamie Osborne 10.
*Percentage power (fewer than 33 runners): Charlie Appleby 46%, Ralph Beckett 25%,Team Gosden 25%, Clive Cox 22%, Robert Cowell 21%
⭕ 3.35 Doncaster, Saturday (Lincoln Handicap): WINNER’S AGE (this century): Four 11, five 8, six 5, seven 1. WEIGHT: 9st to 9st 4lb twelve, 8st 8lb to 8st 13lb nine.
TRAINERS: William Haggas 4, Charlie Appleby 2, Team Cole 2, Richard Fahey 2, Team Gosden 2.
HOT TRENDS: SPs: 10 winners out of 14 from 12-1 to 33-1; favourites unplaced 66%; previous winners over a mile 88%.
GOING: forecast soft. DRAW (1-2-3 since 2016): 22-2-18 (soft), 20-2-21 (good to soft), 10-9-11 (soft), 14–22-17 (good), 10-15-1 (good), 4-3-19 (good to soft), 12-17-4 (heavy), 2-14-1 (soft), and last year 3-15-2 (good to soft).
HEAD TO THE HILLS
⭕ 3.30 Southwell Jumps action from Southwell today where the well handicapped Peckforton Hills should take a lot of beating.
Trained by Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero who are in good form, the six-year-old is taking what looks a much needed step up in trip today and should be able to gain reward for his recent consistency and justify favouritism on Betdaq Betting Exchange.
He was staying on to good effect when second to Diamond Koda at Doncaster last time out and the winner has gone on to run with credit in a class 3 event at Newbury – two grades higher than this.
Redeeming Love is a class dropper who is fitted with a tongue-tie for his handicap debut however the mare has shown previous little so far and was beaten 34 lengths at Market Rasen last time out.
A bigger danger may come from Jack The Savage who appreciated the step up in trip and quicker ground to win narrowly at Hereford last time out. The handicapper has given her a chance of following up with just a 2lb hike.
THE SECRET CODE
⭕ 4.30 Southwell Henrietta Knight only has a small string now but has scored with two of her last three runners – both of which were at the front end of the market.
Whether her Moab can add to that is questionable for me. He has only managed one win from 21 career starts and that came on the Flat. He looks in need of help from the handicapper which is not forthcoming given his recent placed efforts.
Both Karton Plein and Codetalker look realistic alternatives. The former stayed on well to finish third in what looked a better contest at Lingfield last time out and should appreciate the extra distance.
Codetalker looks booked for a place at least but the cheekpieces seemed to bring about an improvement last time and it would be no surprise to seem him get his head in front over this longer trip.
THE MORE THE MERLIER
⭕ 8.00 Wolverhampton A long night ahead at Wolverhampton with nine races starting at 4.23pm.
Just three runners head to post for this novice event and I thought there might be some value in taking on Time To Take Off on his first start since winning on debut at Nottingham 173 days go.
Merlier might just strip fitter for this and has the all-weather experience. He won really well at Newcastle 13 days ago – the same course where his stablemate Wareeth made a hugely impressive 14 length winning debut for Archie Watson – one to watch!
DAQMAN’S BETS
on Betdaq Betting Exchange
★ 3.30 Southwell (win 10, nap)
BET 6.7pts win PECKFORTON HILLS
4.30 Southwell (both win 10)
BET 2.0pts win KARTON PLEIN
BET 1.4pts win CODETALKER
8.00 Wolverhampton (win 10)
BET 5.0pts win MERLIER
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