SERIE A SATURDAY: The Ultra previews ATALANTA v JUVENTUS with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ATALANTA V JUVENTUS
7.45pm We have a cracker from Europe on Saturday on Betdaq Betting Exchange with the focus on Serie A as Atalanta host Juventus! This is a huge game for both sides who should really both be higher in the table – the result could have big implications for European football next season. Both sides were in action on Easter Monday — Juventus picked up an impressive 2-0 win over Genoa, while Atalanta were equally convincing, hammering Lecce 3-0. Those results left Juventus sitting in fifth, obviously outside the top four for Champions League spots, and Atalanta sitting down in seventh – outside the European spots altogether. Juventus are only one point off the top four, and Atalanta one point off sixth, so obviously every game is massive now.
Looking at the xG figures, both sides should be comfortably in the top four. Juventus’s average xG created of 1.93 is the second best attacking figure in Serie A – only Inter Milan top them going forward. Their average xG conceded of 1.11 is the third best defensive figure too. On paper, those are genuinely title contender performance levels and the frustrating truth for Juventus supporters is they have struggled to take their chances this season. I suppose they have struggled to create good quality chances for a number of seasons; at least they have fixed that this season, they just need to convert them now!
Atalanta’s figures are solid but clearly a step below. Their average xG created of 1.65 is the third best attacking figure in Serie A – genuinely impressive and a sign that they aren’t lacking in quality going forward. Like Juventus, they have massively struggled to convert their chances – they’ve actually had worse problems up front compared to Juventus! And on top of that, heir average xG conceded of 1.32 is only mid-table standard in Serie A – however, they have been getting away with things at the back. The positive with Atalanta is that they have been getting results recently – they had a very tough first half of the season, so perhaps their results are now coming more in line with their performance levels.
It’s no surprise that we have a reasonably open betting heat here. Juventus come into the game as the favourites at 2.38 with Atalanta 3.2 and the draw is 3.55 at the time of writing. With both sides struggling to get over the line in games this season, it’s quite easy to poke holes in both of them. It’s hard to argue with the odds – Juventus have been playing the better football and are rightfully favourites. Atalanta’s defence has been there to be exploited this season, and as I said above so far they have got away with things at the back. I wouldn’t be laying the 2.38 on Juventus here to be honest. However, I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market because I feel we’ll see goals here. I think this match-up sets up perfectly for goals, and Over 2.5 goals looks good value at 1.86 in what you could call a must win game for both sides.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.86 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SAAtJu
