PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews ARSENAL v BOURNEMOUTH and LIVERPOOL v FULHAM both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ARSENAL V BOURNEMOUTH
12.30pm It’s felt like a long time since we had a Premier League Saturday on Betdaq Betting Exchange! We had the International Break, then the FA Cup Quarter-Finals, but we’re back with a bang. We kick things off with the early kick off as Arsenal host Bournemouth at the Emirates looking to extend their lead at the top of the table. A win here would see them go twelve points clear at the top of the table before Manchester City have to travel to Chelsea on Super Sunday. I think Arsenal have two hands on the trophy already, never mind one, but they still have to deal with the pressure of a title run-in now. After getting beaten in the Carabao Cup Final by City and then exiting the FA Cup last weekend, Arsenal bounced back with a hard fought 1-0 win away to Sporting Lisbon in the first leg of their Champions League Quarter-Final midweek. It’s was an exceptionally boring game; Arteta definitely set them up to defend and get back to London. Before the stoppage-time winner, they racked up just 0.16 xG. You could say classic Arsenal; very boring but they got what they came for. A one-goal advantage now heads back to the Emirates next Wednesday. They’ll be expected to follow that up with another win here, and it’s no surprise to see Arsenal come into the game as the red-hot favourites.
The home win is trading 1.46 with Bournemouth 8.2 and the draw is 5.0 at the time of writing. There’s no getting away from the fact that Arsenal have been the best side in the Premier League this season; I suppose most fans have just said they have done it the boring way rather than Manchester City and Liverpool when they were at their peak. Arsenal’s under-lining numbers are still impressive though; their average xG created of 1.72 is the fourth best in the Premier League, and their average xG conceded of just 0.92 is comfortably the best defensive figure. The performance at the back is what has set them apart when everyone else has been dropping points this season. Bournemouth might be coming into the weekend sitting down in 13th, but they have been entertaining to watch. Their average xG created of 1.58 is actually the sixth best attacking figure in the league – not bad at all – yet their average xG conceded of 1.49 reveals where the problems lie defensively. They are far too sloppy at the back, and basically you just can’t come into an Arsenal game with those defensive figures. They can deal with the attack, and you just know Arsenal will take their chances. I know Arsenal are the hot favourites here, but I’d have them shorter than 1.46 – I’m happy with a confident bet on the home win.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Arsenal to beat Bournemouth at 1.46 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLArBo
LIVERPOOL V FULHAM
5.30pm We finish Saturday at Anfield as Liverpool host Fulham. This game feels big for Arne Slot and Liverpool – a loss before the International Break leaves them starting the weekend five points behind Aston Villa in the Top Four race. They exited the FA Cup last weekend, and they are on their way to exiting the Champions League too after a demoralising 2-0 defeat away to PSG in the first leg. The only positive perhaps the second leg is here, but Wednesday night in Paris was an utterly miserable experience for Liverpool – they failed to register a single shot on target, were dominated from start to finish. Obviously there’s an extra place for the Premier League this season with Champions League spots, but that looks very competitive too; they are only one point ahead of Chelsea. It’s feel like Arne Slot is under immense pressure – the first season seemed so easy; they were partying for weeks after winning the title, now this season seems full of drama. He decided to bench Mo Salah at the weekend – another major talking point but Slot has been dealing with a lot of injuries this season. Isak made a substitute appearance in Paris to mark his comeback from four months out – his return is obviously hugely welcome. But this season has been a difficult one, and the question marks around Slot’s future at the club continue to grow – it’s hard to know what to make of that.
As you would expect, Liverpool come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.69 with Fulham 5.2 and the draw is 4.5 at the time of writing. That 1.69 feels a little big on Liverpool, but it is a sign of the times this season – they just haven’t got over the line in enough games and the market doesn’t fully trust them. Liverpool’s average xG created of 1.75 is the second best attacking figure in the league, but they haven’t been converting those chances. Their average xG conceded of 1.28 is the joint-third best defensive figure too; they should be comfortably in the Top Four really – I wouldn’t be hitting the panic button on Slot personally. Fulham are your classic mid-table side; they sit in ninth, their average xG created of 1.38 is a solid mid-table figure, and their average xG conceded of 1.37 is perfectly respectable too. They are the type of side that are solid, but the big sides should be dealing with. I couldn’t put anyone off Liverpool at 1.69 here to be honest, but we did have a very entertaining 2-2 clash when the sides met earlier in the season and I feel we’ll see goals here again. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.58 and I feel that offers more value than the Liverpool win is what should be an entertaining end-to-end game. Liverpool’s defensive vulnerability is well-documented, and Fulham have the quality to punish them on the break. This is exactly the kind of game where a tired, emotionally drained Liverpool side can leak chances at the back, but they’ve a tonne of firepower in attack too.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.58 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLLiFu
