CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FINAL: The Ultra previews PSG v ARSENAL with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
PSG v ARSENAL
5pm The Champions League Final arrives on Saturday, and we have a blockbuster on Betdaq Betting Exchange! PSG face Arsenal in Budapest’s Puskss Arena; this fixture means so much for both sides and we should have a cracker. This is Arsenal’s first European Cup final in 20 years, a chance to complete a famous double after landing the Premier League last week. For PSG, it’s a chance to land back-to-back titles – the first side to retain the Champions League since Real Madrid’s three-in-a-row between 2016 and 2018. This is the final the neutral wanted; hopefully it lives up to the hype now!
Given we have two of the best sides from Europe this season here, it’s no surprise that we have a reasonably open betting heat. PSG are the favourites at 2.46 with Arsenal 3.3 and the draw is 3.4 at the time of writing. These two sides have recent history too – PSG knocked Arsenal out of the Champions League at the Semi-Final stage last season, winning 3-1 on aggregate. You have to say that Arsenal come into this Final in a great place though. The pressure of the title race that haunted them for the last few years is gone. The league trophy is in the cabinet. Arsenal can now play with a freedom that was rarely on show in the big moments of the domestic campaign. One wonders will Arteta change his style; probably not – he goes into every big game very cagey.
The story of PSG this season – and last – is the remarkable transformation since Kylian Mbappe’s departure to Real Madrid. For years, PSG were a collection of extraordinary individuals that never added up to a cohesive team. Mbappe, Neymar, Messi – the front three that had the whole world salivating, yet consistently came up short in Europe when it mattered most. They was nothing behind them. Luis Enrique always demanded more defensive commitment and pressing intensity from his forward line; with Mbappe gone, he finally has a squad that buys into that collective identity completely. Ousmane Dembele has been the standout; such a talented striker yet works so hard off the ball. A classic Luis Enrique style; this is a side playing for each other, pressing as a unit and possibly very importantly here have had some rest towards the end of the season.
PSG had Ligue 1 won a few weeks ago; Arsenal only got to enjoy the final day with no pressure. Both sides have fantastic under-lining numbers this season. Arsenal’s average xG created of 1.70 is the fourth best in the Premier League, but it’s been their performance at the back that’s set them apart. Their average xG conceded of just 0.96 in the Premier League is exceptionally impressive – the best defensive figure in Europe when you consider how competitive the Premier League is. PSG’s average xG created of 2.14 in Ligue 1 is comfortably the best attacking figure in France, while their average xG conceded of 0.93 is the best defensive figure in Ligue 1 too. No surprises there.
So how does this game play out tactically? Arteta’s default setting – particularly in the biggest matches – has always been defensive solidity first. The biggest question here is; does he go for it after finally getting a major trophy? Confidence must be sky high; perhaps now is the time. However, I just don’t see him doing it – it’s not his style. I feel it will be up to PSG to make the running here, and PSG will not sit deep – it is simply not in their DNA under Luis Enrique anyway. The Semi-Final against Bayern Munich was absolutely crazy, but PSG can also play a cagey game when they want – they kept the second leg quite tight when needed. I would edge towards PSG at 2.46 in the match odds market, but I do feel this Final screams Under 2.5 goals at 1.93. I can see Arteta setting Arsenal up quite negatively and while the game might open up later, PSG aren’t exactly going to open the door for counter-attacks either. We have so much attacking talent on the pitch, but this looks like it could be a very tactical affair.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.93 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CLPgAs
