US OPEN: Long known as golf’s toughest test, the U.S. Open returns this week to one of the venues that truly lives up to that reputation: Shinnecock Hills on New York’s Long Island. It’s a place with as much history as anywhere in American golf, having hosted the second ever stagings of both the U.S. Open and U.S. Amateur back in 1896. It measured just 4,423 yards at that time, still the shortest course in U.S. Open history, and wouldn’t host the Open again for 90 years, by which time it had been lengthened to 6,912 yards.
That 1986 Open was won by Ray Floyd, whose 1-under par total gave him a 2-shot victory, and across five total U.S. Opens at Shinnecock the lowest winning score we’ve seen is Retief Goosen’s 4-under 276 back in 2004. The course has been lengthened since then, however, and now tips out at 7,445 yards, which is quite beefy for a par-70. We saw the effects of that in 2018, the last time this tournament came to Shinnecock, when Brooks Koepka bombed and gouged his way to victory at 1-over 281 and the top of the leaderboard looked much like the top of the PGA Tour’s driving distance stats, with Dustin Johnson, Tony Finau, and Patrick Reed all finding the top-5. Conditions are expected to be firm and fast this week, and because of that it’s been insinuated that length off the tee won’t be as big a factor this year, but that remains to be seen. Based on available evidence, I would certainly give the longer guys an edge at Shinnecock, and the fairways are wider than your typical U.S. Open venue, though the rough, should you miss them, is incredibly penal.
The green complexes are universally regarded as the most unique and challenging aspect of the course, and in past years some have been so firm as to render the course almost unplayable. To prevent that from happening the USGA has been watering the greens twice daily, both in the mornings and at 2pm, but according to the players that has done little to mitigate the trampoline effect that we see on some holes due to the way the greens are pitched. Shinnecock is not your traditional “target golf”; it’s a place where you really have to think your way around and understand that at certain times you simply have to take your medicine and accept a long putt, a pitch out, or a bad break. It shares a lot of characteristics with links golf, which is what prompted Rory McIlroy to say earlier this week that he wouldn’t be surprised to see “a few players from Europe and the UK in contention on Sunday.”
McIlroy, currently World No. 2, is trading at around 15.0 on the BETDAQ Exchange, trailing only World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (7.8), who hasn’t won since January but is still the clear favorite every time he tees it up. Jon Rahm (19.5), Xander Schauffele (23.0), Matt Fitzpatrick (23.0), and Tommy Fleetwood (23.0) round out the top of the market, and as is always the case with an event of this nature, the middle of the market is teeming with value. With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Tommy Fleetwood (23.0)- Fleetwood seems to be a popular pick this week, and with good reason: not only is he playing some terrific golf at the moment, logging a pair of top-5s and last week’s T11 in Canada across his last four starts, but he has a tremendous record at majors, and at the U.S. Open specifically, where he’s claimed three top-5 finishes over the course of his career. The best one of those, a solo runner-up, came right here at Shinnecock in 2018, so Fleetwood has already shown that the course fits his eye and his game. As Rory McIlroy mentioned in his press conference this week, Shinnecock shares a lot of characteristics with some of the course in the UK and Europe, and if the wind starts blowing, there may be no one in the field better equipped for the tee-to-green challenge than Fleetwood. He’s worth a bet at better than 20/1.
Chris Gotterup (48.0)- It’s been a breakthrough season for the 26-year-old Gotterup, with a pair of victories and ten top-30 finishes across 14 starts. In his past three events he’s finished T14 at the Truist, T10 at the PGA Championship, and T27 at the Memorial, so he’s in good form, and he seems to prove on a weekly basis that he’s up for the task of contending in the biggest tournaments against the best fields. This will be his first time seeing Shinnecock in competition, but he’s 4th on Tour in driving distance and is also quite handy with the flat stick, ranking 29th in putting average, and if you look at the leaderboard from the 2018 Open, the last one held here, you’ll see it chock full of guys who bomb it and can roll the rock. Plus, Gotterup is a northeastern guy, having played collegiately at Rutgers, so he’ll be very well acquainted with this style of golf. He’s one to watch this week and a nice value at a price like 48.0.
Joaquin Niemann (140.0)- I realize it’s a case of out of sight, out of mind with a lot of these LIV players, but Niemann is unquestionably one of the top guys on that Tour and he’s just three weeks removed from a victory at LIV Korea, where he broke par all four rounds to post 12-under on a very demanding track. He’s got to be highly motivated to succeed at these majors given his inability to earn world ranking points on LIV, and though he’s been a bit uneven in majors these last couple of years, he’s a world class player who has experienced success at the very highest levels. His ball-striking ability, particularly his precision iron play, should make him a great fit at a course like Shinnecock where you must put your approach shots in certain places to give yourself a chance to score. Niemann is a dark horse this week, for sure, but he absolutely has the game and temperament to win this tournament, which is something you can’t say about many other guys in his price range. He might be the best value on the board.
