9-2 WINNER IN 32-1 DAQMAN TREBLE: Amaze (WON 9-2) was his best scorer (and the obvious accolade for his tipping) in yet another Daqman winners spree yesterday, which netted a treble of just under 32-1.
50 POINTS PROFIT ON THE DAY: Bennys Mist (WON 85-40) and Ferjaan (WON 10-11) completed the trio, with the fourth horse in his accumulator finishing second. It gave him just under 50 points profit on the day.
When York is heavy, back only heavy-ground York winners. That racing adage, penned by the old-time pro punter Alex Bird, is particularly poignant today. Because there aren’t any. In fact, looking down the depleted card, I cannot even see a solitary soft-ground York winner.
Past Knavesmire success for horses running today has been on good to firm (4), good (3) and good to soft (3). Something tells me we are in for some right old turn-ups!
Yet one of those good-to-firm York winners, Burning Blaze, is among the favourites for the opening nursery (2.00), even though his sire has had only two winners from 29 runners on soft-heavy.
Bachotheque and Bond Club are the only heavy-ground winners on any course lining up in this and Bachotheque has form against Group horses, which gives him a chance with Smoothtalkinrascal, who took part in both the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot and the July Stakes.
Rascal’s first-time visors could be the making of him or they could fill up with mud! And he has to give weight all round. But it’s 10.0 bar three, among them Burning Blaze.
In the eight years of the mile handicap (3.05), six winners have come from stalls 3, 4 (twice), 6, 7 and 8, and saving ground on the rail will be useful today.
I fancy the 2010 Cambridgeshire winner, Credit Swap – stall 2 and 11.5 on BETDAQ this morning – to bounce back on the soft ground he loves. Watch out for a Wigham gamble which would confirm my suspicions.
Bath is also a mudbath, a right baden baden, and I wouldn’t touch those class 5 and 6 races with my loofah. The quality of the 1m 2f handicap (1.30) might give us a bet.
The eye is immediately drawn to the horses sired by soft-ground stallions, Selkirk (Splendid Light) and Pivotal (Commend), both with trainers of the highest class, though Splendid Light is hard to fancy, with his high head carriage.
Little Rocky’s ‘dad’, Cadeaux Genereux, gets both extremes, firm and heavy winners, and he was all the rage this morning, after the defection of Jawhar. That’s a bit extreme.
After riding Commend, Ryan Moore goes on to partner another Stoute Pivotal, Enrol (7.15), on the easy surface of the Wolverhampton Polytrack. I’m going to bet that at least one of the Stoute give-in-the-ground horses will win.
Brian Ellison’s yard is in top form, and everything has ‘walked’ in the BETDAQ market this morning, faced with the lightly-penalised recent winner, Tiradato (9.15).
With the Flat cards flat and boggy, best go to practitioners of the NH sport for a nap: they are used to the mud, and have a star in the making by all accounts, called Blackwater King (5.30 Carlisle).
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4pts win SMOOTHTALKINRASCAL and 1.2pts win (stakes saver) BACHOTHEQUE (2.00 York)
BET 1.9pts win CREDIT SWAP (3.05 York)
BET 5.8pts win COMMEND (1.30 Bath), if lose BET 10pts win ENROL (7.15 Wolverhampton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win on each and 5pts win double BLACKWATER KING (nap, 5.30 Carlisle) and TIRADATO (9.15 Wolverhampton), plus 1pt win treble with CREDIT SWAP (3.05 York).
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