FINAL FLING: THE DAY OF RECKONING AT 11.5: Daqman opens his account on the final day of the 2012 Flat season with a bet on a horse called Reckoning, 11.5 on BETDAQ this morning.
PARTY FINISH TO THE FLAT AT 18.5: His November Handicap bets include Party Line at 18.5, and he ends the final day of the season where he began, on a horse that landed a hat-trick for him in the Spring.
2.00 Doncaster It’s the day when all the promises, and all the potential, finally falls flat though, in this particular race, more than half the field have managed a win and two of them have set up sequences.
The important word here is ‘Listed’, a last chance for fillies to get some black type for the paddocks or the sales catalogues. Though a winner fives times out of six, Boonga Roogeta has yet to be placed in the pattern.
It’s also ‘last-chance saloon’ for Dinvar Diva, Guiletta, Reckoning, Strathnaver, Surprise Moment and Wannabee Loved.
Such has been the deficit in this year’s three-year-olds that, even on the final day, we are doubtful whether they can uphold their score in this race: they lead the four-year-olds 5-4 (no older winner)
The stats say it’s no good relying on the favourite, whatever age: only one outright market leader has won, and the last three winners have been returned at 14-1, 25-1 and 7-1. Both stats snub the five-year-old market leader, Sajjhaa.
Like so many of Godolphins, Sajjha did well in the Spring – second in a Group 2 to the Opera runner-up Izzi Top – but waited until the autumn to race again. The market says she’s in most danger from her stablemate, Surprise Moment.
With just one run, one win, a year ago at Doncaster, it’s obvious that Reckoning (11.5 on BETDAQ as I write) has been ‘got up’ for this, while Wannabee Loved (13.5 offers) is the only one that can be said to be on the upgrade, and this daughter of Pivotal will like the easy surface.
2.35 Doncaster (November Handicap) Another race for youngsters (four-year-olds 5, three-year-olds 4 in the decade) and another in which the favourite is a constant let-down; seven of the 10 winners were a double-figure price at SP.
But the standout stat is that six of the last seven had been in the frame at Doncaster before. Kirthill, Darley Sun, Art Scholar, War Poet, Sirvino, Nicholascopernicus, Hillview Boy, Party Line, Hanoverian Baron and Baron Greta fit this bill.
But only Kirthill, Nicholascopernicus and Party Line survive from the list if the age rule is then applied. Additionally, a draw below stall 8 is a negative, and a black mark against Kirthill.
The handicapper says that First Mohican improved 20lb in two October races. Unexposed at today’s trip and Tobouggs are not ground dependent. Art Scholar and Sirvino suggest there’s not much between First Mohican and Party Line.
The handicapper has also brought the Godolphin pair Retrieve and Songcraft, together after their first and third in a Listed at Newmarket but they have big weights for this (carried just twice since 1990). Songcraft has drifted like a dumb dog on a raft this morning: not a single bark for him at 47.0.
Voodoo Prince will appreciate the strong pace and his stablemate, The Tiger, is on the upgrade (improved a stone inside a month). Clayton would win if he could reproduce his Spring form and he he’s had a run back recently.
I’d say that Clayton (9.2 on BETDAQ this morning) and First Mohican are the ones most likely to show further improvement. Party Line is a big price (18.5 offers).
2.50 Wincanton (Elite Hurdle) As one season ends, another begins its championship route to Cheltenham. Here’s the Triumph Hurdle winner, Zarkandar, against the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle fifth, Prospect Wells.
But, heart ruling head, I’d love to see Local Hero win it, though, head ruling heart, he is a Market Rasen local hero at Listed level and must leap into a Graded contest on a title-prelim track, with Zarkander a likely Champion Hurdle contender for Paul Nicholls.
‘Winkers’ is not unlike ‘Rasen’, with its right-hand turns and gradients, but I just wonder if Local Hero will miss the cover of the big fields he so loves to eat his way through. At 9.8 on BETDAQ, worth a tilt, his small stable having won the race before with Royal Shakespeare.
3.25 Wincanton (Badger Ales Chase) Paul Nicholls, who trains only a few miles away, is 1211 in this but he also saddled four beaten favourites before that, and Michel le Bon has been a big disappointment, missing the beat in two big handicaps.
However, like Zarrafakt, he goes exceptional well when fresh. Front-runner Ballyallia Man will make this a tough test, so class will out, and the handicapper has dropped Diamond Harry to a dangerous mark, 16lb down on his rating at the start of the year.
Mic’s Delight is booked for my horses-to-follow list which I reveal on Monday and Tuesday, so I want a good run from him at 12.5 this morning to justify his inclusion.
After winning the first (12.35) on Mr Mole – famous last words – Tony McCoy misses the Badger race to ride Time For Spring (3.35 Sandown), 5.6 on BETDAQ at the time of writing.
3.45 Doncaster Yep, you guessed it. No sign of a winning favourite in the past history of this race; that’s the third time for me this afternoon (in fact, it also applies to the sprint at 3.10).
My last bet of the 2012 Flat season will be just about my first: I had Highland Colori in my opening horses-to-follow list of the season, and he duly landed a hat-trick for me in May.
He was an excellent second over CD in September and missed out by a short-head in the Ayr Silver Cup. One of few in this to appreciate 7f.
Docofthebay is down in the weights but, for me, the main danger is Well Painted, narrowly beaten over a mile on Town Moor in June and denied a clear run at Chester, going for the money back.
Well Painted did not reappear until Ascot last month when he was unlucky again, squeezed out at the start. Worth one last chance at 7.6 on BETDAQ as I sign off for the season.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 1.9pts win RECKONING and 1.6pts win WANNABEE LOVED (2.00 Doncaster)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 4.1pts win CLAYTON and 1.7pts win and place PARTY LINE, plus 1.7pts win (stakes saver) FIRST MOHICAN (2.35 Doncaster)
BET 8pts win ZARKANDER and 2.2pts win LOCAL HERO (2.50 Wincanton)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 3.75pts win DIAMOND HARRY, 2.6pts win MIC’S DELIGHT and 1.5pts win (stakes saver) MICHEL LE BON (3.25 Wincanton)
BET 4.3pts win (nap) TIME FOR SPRING (3.35 Sandown)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 4.5pts win WELL PAINTED and 2.5pts win on each DOCOFTHEBAY and HIGHLAND COLORI (3.45 Doncaster)
* Daqman stakes his bets to win 20 points (unless otherwise stated for jackpot bets). You therefore know the offer he took (divide 20 by the stake).
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
