10-POINT NAP AMONG THREE WINNERS: Daqman yesterday landed two 10-point bets, Valdez (nap, WON 4-5) and Elenika (WON 8-13), and Buck Mulligan (WON 11-4) scored a further 20 points for yet another profit on the day. His current naps sequence is 11210131311201021 for a 53% strike rate.
BETDAQ RACING AT KEMPTON: Today Daqman covers the Betdaq-sponsored racing at Kempton this evening but first finds value in BETDAQ offers which, despite the class of race over the sticks, are punter-friendly.
Is there an Arkle running today? Though we are in the age of Kauto Star and Frankel, Arkle still sends shivers down the spine and the Anne Duchess Of Westminster Memorial (2.00) is a reminder of those great days.
The Duchess adored her three times Gold Cup winner but wouldn’t allow him to run in the Grand National so maybe it’s fitting that Arkle is celebrated over the easy obstacles at Bangor.
It’s a class-3 race and qualifies for my Daq-value award as having an overround below 110% as I look at the list of offers. Compare that to the shocking 129% total probability of an SP yesterday.
Cotswold Charmer goes extremely well fresh so the apparent deficit behind Lovely Baron in a small field at Warwick early in the year may not mean very much, though the McCain seven-year-old scored first run back last month.
Monkerty Tunkerty is a false favourite for me, as a hunter-chaser now meeting handicappers. Kauto Relko, on the other hand, is probably underrated after autumn efforts in better company.
Fine Parchment and Buffalo Bob have both won at a higher level but both require 7lb claimers to ease their penalties for past success.
With those percentages on my side in the BETDAQ market, I’ll allow myself a couple of bets, relying on that Warwick form. I’m dutching Cotswold Charmer (4.9) and Lively Baron (6.0).
Though they’ve backed Provo like a certainty for the opener at Exeter (1.40), there is again a 110% overround, and 11.0 bar one is enough to tempt me to a place bet. Every offer bar the favourite in the Place Market is better than the win price about him.
Willoughby Hedge is massive at offers of 19.0, considering good vibes from the Alan King stable tour, and a double-your-money place offer.
Wow! Just 103% for the total probability about offers for the Pertemps qualifier (2.10), which makes the favourite, Captain Sunshine, fabulous value, even at 2.5.
Five Dream hasn’t scored for three years and never beyond 18 furlongs, while Alfie Sherrin was a dog on a raft this morning, drifting out to 8.4 as I write.
4.25 Kempton Park (Win Big With Betdaq Multiples Apprentice Classified Claiming Stakes) Andrew Balding is 50% in races like this at Kempton and Renegotiate should boost the strike rate, having just missed out in a claimer here over a furlong further a month back.
Stables of his three opponents are all without a win in the last fortnight., including Jim Boyle: otherwise Purple ‘N Gold is interesting on the debut for Boyle as a gelding who can win after a break.
Anychanceofabirdiecould be up to par, with only three runs to his name but the form-figures suggest that he’s been going backwards.
4.55 Kempton Park (Back or Lay At betdaq.com handicap) Vhujon and Sherjawy have both won six times on the course, and Brandywell Boy is seven times a distance winner. All are aged, but they still take it in turns to win sprints.
That’s what makes this particular race unique, or rare at least: all three winners since the race began in 2009 have been three years old. Of a trio of second-season contenders today, Green Mountain (7.4 on BETDAQ as I write) is the one most likely to.
The form of once classy performer Crown Dependency – fourth in the 2011 Molecomb – has gone into reverse and College Doll is hard to fancy,
Of the older horses, last year’s runner-up from a wide berth, Brian Sprout, is handily drawn this time but, despite the 10 stall, Duke Of Rainford (offers of 6.6) is my fancy for Michael Herrington and Jamie Spencer, a winningmost combination on the course.
5.25 Kempton Park (Betdaq Mobile Apps Handicap) Notable for a quartet of Northern raiders: Move In Time, Le Toreador, Burning Thread and Whozthecat.
Of these, Burning Thread is over the betting weir at 39.0, as I write, but Whozthecat is a strong order after blinkers returned him to the winners’ enclosure at Wolverhampton.
Move In Time is not the same horse that won a Listed last year but did better at Doncaster recently than former Group horse Moorhouse Lad, who is also a dog on a raft this morning, out to 37.0.
Fifth in the Doncaster race was Ajjaadd, a close third at Goodwood before that and a big price at offers of 10.5 this morning, Ihtifal faded over 6f on today’s course a fortnight ago as if the drop back to the minimum would suit.
5.55 Kempton Park (Betdaq Casino Games/British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes, Division 1): How would you feel if you’d spent 200,000 guineas on Melvin The Grate – brother to a Guineas runner-up – and watched him ‘get beat’ at lowly Folkestone. Answer: you’d be glad of this opportunity to claw back three grand.
But is ‘Melvin’ up to it? Why did he need eight weeks off? What lurks among the unraced (One Pekan) and what will improve the proverbial ton from just one or two tries so far? Tricky one.
6.25 Kempton Park (Betdaq Casino Games/British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes, Division 2): Betdaq has forked out double the money to split this race, which seems to be at the mercy of Horsted Keynes, subject of a Wolver gamble which failed by a nose just a fortnight ago. But, again, se don’t know if there’s an improver lurking.
Marco Botti won the race last year but First Sargeant is hard to fancy after starting his career in blinkers, and Richard Hannon’s Seaside Rock is another lonely dog on a raft as I write, over the betting weir at 21.0.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 1.1pts win and 3pts place WILLOUGHBY HEDGE (1.40 Exeter)
DAQ VALUE BET 5.1pts win COTSWOLD CHARMER and 4pts win LIVELY BARON (2.00 Bangor)
DAQ VALUE BET 13pts win (nap) CAPTAIN SUNSHINE (2.10 Exeter)
BET 3.5pts win DUKE OF RAINFORD (4.55 Kempton)
BET 2.1pts win AJJAADD (5.25 Kempton)
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