GOING! 21.0 AND 14.5 VALUE BETS: Betdaq has value bets on the two jumps cards today, according to our ace-tipster Daqman, who reckons 21.0 and 14.5 offers are ‘wrong’ in a sequence of Daq-value races (all with a list of offers below 110% this morning).
GOING! FOLKESTONE FINALE: It’s the final day’s racing at Folkestone, the second course to close in three days after Hereford on Sunday.
GONE! BIG BUCK’S OUT FOR THE SEASON: The face of Christmas and Cheltenham racing has been changed by the defection of Big Buck’s and Al Ferof, both out for the season with similar leg injuries.
It’s the end of the World as we know it. The domination of long-distance hurdle races by Big Buck’s is over for the season and maybe for good. Goliath has gone.
Big Buck’s has not been felled by some upstart equine David but by the slings of outrageous fortune that have also claimed rising star Al Ferof with a similar injury.
The winner of four consecutive World Hurdles, Big Buck’s had returned just 18 days ago to record his 18th consecutive success but last night he and Al Ferof were found in their boxes with similar leg injuries.
Al Ferof had made his seasonal reappearance a fortnight earlier to win the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham and looked a formidable opponent in both King George and Gold Cup.
The Paul Nicholls gravy train has hit the buffers, just as the stable had taken a commanding lead and looked to have it all their own way, right down the line to the Festival and all stations beyond.
Many a stable will be cursing their luck that they have already defected from Saturday’s Long Walk but the nearest challenger to Big Buck’s on the ratings seemed remote, Smad Place, on 158 some 16lb behind him.
Now we have to look to such as Smad Place, third in the World Hurdle in March, to improve – as he should at the age of five – and take over the mantle, though Alan King’s charge was a remote third on his reappearance at Wetherby.
Unless you believe he will step up a couple of stone on that, the Long Walk is unlikely to be the king-maker. Maybe we saw the new World champion in Saturday’s Relkeel Hurdle, when Oscar Whisky romped home 18 lengths..
Or maybe it’s the six-wins-in-a-row super-mare Quevega, winner of the Mares Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival three years running who slammed Voler La Vedette in the World Series at Punchestown when last seen in April
Also at the end of the road, two days after the demise of Hereford, is Folkestone racecourse, which has its last meeting today.
And the Moore family’s hold on the tracks prizemoney should continue right to the end, since they are doubly represented in the feature chase (2.00), with Lajidaal and Sawago.
So I did a double-take this morning when I saw Quapriland favourite, and well clear in the BETDAQ market, with both Moore runners at 6.0. I had to dive in.
Quapriland, a maiden under Rules, has been beaten a total of 83 lengths in his last three starts and I went up to the diving board again and plunged on a lay.
Western King (1.00), always reckoned more likely to be a chaser, flopped 54 lengths over hurdles in the mud at Ascot last time out.
But he’s been a different horse on a better surface since his debut under Rules, with form figures when the ground is good to soft or better of 313. The 14.5 on BETDAQ this morning is ‘wrong.’
Talkonthestreet also flopped last time out, 21 lengths in arrears at Exeter, but his jumping was fair, and that was also an off day on the soft for a horse needing a sounder surface.
Godsmejudge may have ‘bounced’ at Newbury after a good first run back over fences but can only be watched at this stage. Barlow may also be better than the bare form but can’t be backed at this morning’s offers.
All ‘wrong’ in the market for the amateur-riders’ race (12.40) at Catterick at 21.0 on BETDAQ this morning is Amir Pasha, who comes alive on thwe course. He won this race in 2009 and ran even better (it was arguably a stronger field) when beaten little more than a length by Sambelucky last year.
Sambelucky’s winning stable and rider are back for more with Flora’s Pride, clearly primed for this, and Knight Valiant is a course specialist.
Biggest prize of the day is for winning the handicap chase (1.40), in which it is hard to oppose the consistent Ballyoliver (4.8), with Venetia Williams having scored three quick wins on Thursday and Friday and four of her last six runners having finished in the frame.
Ballyoliver’s recent form has put him up a stone higher than when he finished last season, but Fentara’s jumping is a problem, a complaint which also applies to Brunswick Gold, dropped in class here..
So I reckon the main danger to be back-to-form Dystonia’s Revenge, winner of the race last year off a similar mark and 9.0 in a 105% list of offers. That’s so punter-friendly, I can afford to dutch with Ballyoliver.
Venetia William’s Saroque has eased in the face of a plunge on Tim Easterby’s One For Luck (12.10), which is the nap and the hub of my Christmas-box Daq Multiples.
DAQMAN’S BETS
DAQ VALUE: BET 3.8pts win FLORA’S PRIDE, and 1pt win and place AMIR PASHA (12.40 Catterick)
DAQ VALUE: BET 7pts win TALKONTHESTREET and 1.5pts win and place WESTERN KING (1.00 Folkestone)
DAQ VALUE: BET 5.2pts win BALLYOLIVER and 2.5pts win DYSTONIA’S REVENGE (1.40 Catterick)
LAY 10pts QUAPRILAND and DAQ-VALUE: BET 4pts win on each LAJIDAAL and TAWAGO (2.00 Folkestone)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win ONE FOR LUCK (nap, Daq Value, 12.10 Catterick) and 3 x 3pt win doubles the same one with TALKONTHESTREET (1.00 Folkestone) and BALLYOLIVER (1.40)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by the stake). This does not apply to Daq Multiples. Daq Value races are those today averaging below 110% probability total.
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