DAQMAN’S DEEP SATURDAY JACKPOT PLUNGE: Daqman raises his game today, punting to win 40 points with jackpot bets at Ffos Las in the Welsh Champion Hurdle and West Wales National, despite a warning from Tony McCoy that it rides the deepest ground he’s ever raced on.
DOUBLE-LAY DARE AT SANDOWN: Daqman also puts his neck on the line, laying a Paul Nicholls’ favourite because of poor stable form, and opposing the hype horse of the day, Captain Conan, both at Sandown.
1.50 Sandown Lightweights have won the last four of these, with five out of six off 11st 2lb or lower. Not one winning favourite in that time.
Kudu Country has not been penalized for being runner-up twice on heavy and Barry Geraghty is now asked to get those few missing ounces out of him.
There are ground worries for Toubab, and Eastlake is without Tony McCoy, so I’m taking the 11.0 Lord Singer this morning. Any other day, I would oppose him for his poor strike-rate but this is mud, inglorious mud.
Lord Singer has been humping big weights, mainly over the wrong trip: this is his first run back at the minimum since he was the ‘moral’, beaten a neck giving 12lb to the winner at Lingfield in November.
2.05 Ffos Las (Welsh Champion Hurdle) The favourite and top weight, Oscara Dara, is up a stone and Tony McCoy warns that the ground at the last Ffos Las meeting was the deepest he’s ever encountered.
Oscara Dara was impressive in the Lanzarote Hurdle but, though that was class-1 (Listed), he beat only class-3 winners, albeit giving a stone to the second and third.
What can stop him today? Peckhamecho was placed in the Gerry Fielden but collateral form has him behind Double Ross, and there’s a line to Double Ross through Black Thunder which suggests that ‘Oscar’ has 7lb in hand on that one at today’s weights.
However, the same benchmark has Medinas with the edge on Oscara Dara. Medinas was not disgraced, fourth, trying to give weight to the winner, the magnificent At Fishers Cross, at Cheltenham in December.
The snag with Medinas is that he is consistent in the best of handicaps without winning and it’s cost him a rise of 15lb since his return this season.
‘Choc’ Thornton seems to have chosen the same stable’s Balder Success. He’s done all his winning at 2m but is unexposed at today’s trip and is one of only five in the race to have won on officially ‘heavy’ ground.
Balder Succes (11.0 on BETDAQ this morning) was a strong contender for the 2012 Triumph Hurdle but fell, going well in third or fourth on the outside of the big field four flights out.
His problem is that he tends to panic with a lot of horses around him, so expect to see Success only if ‘Choc’ can keep him wide of the rest where, fortuitously, he is likely to find the better ground.
With the bottom four out of the handicap, best of the lightweights should be Tanerko Emery, laid out for this for the man behind the building of Ffos Las racecourse, the same owner of Oscar Whisky who won the only modern running of this Welsh Champion Hurdle two years ago.
It’s all déjà vu, since Oscara Dara is by the same sire as Oscar Whisky. He might just be good enough today but Balder Succes is the value and Tanerko Emery is sure to be running for you.
2.25 Sandown (Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase) Seven-year-olds have won this for the last five years but favourites are five out of six, and it’s hard to see Changing Times beating Captain Conan.
Barry Geraghty on Captain Conan, who has had Third Intention in rear of him twice, but at the minimum trip, should get a good sit behind front-runner Changing Times, who will attempt to put his stamina to good use and offset a 12lb difference between them on official ratings.
Tracking them, Houblon Des Obeaux, a very good jumper, is only 4lb off Captain Conan, according to the official handicapper, and is known to stay even further.
It is a tactical race and we found out today whether Captain Conan has been hyped. I certainly can’t back him at odds on: the horse he beat just over three lengths at Sandown, Hinterland, was then 35 lengths off Simonsig; and Third Intention, third, beaten a total of eight lengths, was 15 lengths behind Dynaste at Kempton on Boxing Day.
Yet they are going 7-2 Captain Conan and 5-1 Dynaste in betting for the Jewson. Until Captain Conan does it today – and he certainly LOOKS exciting – he’s a hype horse.
At that difference of 4lb, and 4 points better in the BETDAQ market, I shall punt an upset, Houblon des Obeaux at 5.6 this morning from a stable in magnificent form and known to love trip and ground.
Laying Captain Conan will cost me only around four points if he wins, and the whole exercise, if a failure, will set me back just 8.5 points. I think I have at least that much in hand on ‘overs’ in my big-race bets at BETDAQ value.
2.40 Ffos Las (West Wales National) Every track wants a National these days, and Ffos Las has chosen a fine time to run this one – hock deep in mud – and a couple of horses dropped out this morning.
Carruthers won the Hennessy last season and bounced back here at Ffos Las on heavy over Christmas. Shaking Hands also scored on the track at that ‘McCoy heavy’ meeting recently but the handicapper nailed him 13lb and he is up two grades today.
What a mighty double if David Pipe can land both Champion Hurdle (Tanerko Emery) and the National (Shaking Hands) on the same card! The yard was in form this week with four winners in two days.
The problem for Shaking Hands is that he will have company (Red Rocco) front-running. That is, if both run the race in their usual style. But, stepping up half a mile, they may not do so, or may become disappointed, or both.
Our Island was behind Alfie Spinner at the Cheltenham festival but has been in at the business end of the Devon Marathon and the Welsh National. He loves the mud, as does Cannington Brook.
‘Conditions are dead right’, says the trainer of Cannington Brook. ‘He’s 7lb out of the handicap,’ moans the trainer of Our Island.
The one they all wanted this morning was Red Rocco, who has had only small-time success so far, but is reckoned a ‘natural’ and a future Aintree Grand National horse.
Cannington Brook now finds himself off top weight, giving 8lb to Carruthers and 16lb to Shaking Hands. I can’t see him doing that. The 9.0 a Hennessy winner makes Carruthers the BETDAQ value.
3.35 Sandown There’s a veterans’ race at 3 o’clock but for some reason old-timers have been coming to this one and 13-year-olds have won for the last two years.
Roberto Goldback could land the hat-trick for ‘aged’ horses, as they used to be known in the scratch sheets, and the ground will play to his stamina.
Paul Nicholls hasn’t had a winner over hurdles or fences since Fago 18 days ago, and Michel Le Bon ran an absoluter stinker, pulled up at Wincanton on Thursday.
His runner, Keppols Hill, is a false favourite, a pointer who has won only in class-4 under Rules. He was not fluent that day and blundered badly in both previous starts at Exeter and Ffos Las.
I think Viking Blond a much better animal than the bare form suggests, having been asked big, big questions at Cheltenham , Aintree, and in the Welsh national.
I will take a 10.0 punt on him, and play a long-eared nap (!), plus 8.0 the Grand National horse Roberto Goldback, laying Keppols Hill at 3.25, no more than that.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET (to win 20 points): 6pts win KUDU COUNTRY and 2pts win LORD SINGER (1.50 Sandown)
WIN-40 JACKPOT: BET 11pts win OSCARA DARA, 10pts win TANERKO EMERY and 4pts win BALDER SUCCESS (2.05 Ffos Las)
LAY 10pts CAPTAIN CONAN (2.25 Sandown) and BET (to win 20 points) 4.3pts win HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (2.25 Sandown)
WIN-40 JACKPOT: 8pts win SHAKING HANDS, 5pts win CARRUTHERS and 3.8pts win (stakes saver) RED ROCCO (2.40 Ffos Las)
LAY 10pts KEPPOLS HILL and BET 2.8pts win ROBERTO GOLDBACK and 2.2pts win VIKING BLOND (nap, 3.35 Sandown)
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