NATIONAL TRIAL MARKED WITH A CROSS: Daqman reckons Giles Cross will bounce back to form in today’s Haydock Grand National Trial and makes a case for a similar return to the top flight for General Miller in the big betting hurdle at Ascot.
ROCKY ROAD TO CHELTENHAM: Cappa Bleu and Rocky Creek put his column’s Cheltenham and Aintree ante-post money on the line. Daqman’s nap, hoping to pick up the threads of his five in a row earlier in the week, runs at Ascot.
It’s a big day for this column’s ante-post bets. We took BETDAQ offers of 16.0 Rocky Creek for the RSA at Cheltenham and 21.0 Cappa Bleu for the Grand National. You would expect ‘Rocky’ to win his round today, but Cappa Bleu will surely only be shadow boxing: a place would be nice in this warm-up.
2.05 Ascot (Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase) Here’s Rocky Creek, running in the race that has produced two RSA winners (Bobs Worth 2012, second in this; Albertas Run 2008, won this), plus a second (Burton Port), third (Old Vic) and fourth (Carruthers) in the last nine years.
‘Rocky’, who is also in the National Hunt Chase over 4m at Cheltenham, will be a short price to dispose of Houblon Des Obeaux, Real Milan, and Tour Des Champs, who all have that same choice of races at the festival.
Houblon Des Obeaux is the main threat to Rocky Creek, as the ‘moral’ at Lingfield, giving weight to the narrow scorer in a race from which the winner of this has come twice before.
Tour Des Champs, by the same sire as Sir Des Champs and Quevega, was challenging ‘Rocky’ at Warwick when he fell. He is weighted to be a serious danger again but we are now entering the novice stage of ‘no excuses’, as Cheltenham looms.
2.20 Haydock (Rendlesham Hurdle) Monkerhostin (2004) won this on route to his Coral Cup success and Kasbah Bliss in both years before his World Hurdle second and fourth.
Trustan Times, Cross Kennon and Kentford Grey Lady are the World Hurdle hopes in this, while Across The Bay is taking the hurdles route to the Grand National, swerving the Aintree trial 35 minutes later, for fear of having a hard race in the mud.
Cross Kennon won this in 2011 and was second last year but he makes heavy weather of it these days and was 17 lengths and more behind Kentford Grey Lady at Cheltenham three weeks ago.
Trustan Times has won a Graded race – on today’s course in November – but that means he has to give 3lb more than he should to the ‘Grey Lady’ on the ratings.
2.40 Ascot Cappa Bleu was third in this last year on his way to fourth place in the National (see my Archive: Thursday’s column), for which Saint Are, The Rainbow Hunter, Major Malarkey and Tatenen are also entered.
Vino Griego, a winner in heavy ground at Cheltenham on the last day, was runner-up over today’s CD in the Silver Cup in 2011, and The Rainbow Hunter is a CD winner.
Saint Are and Major Malarkey need better ground; this 3m stretches Tatenen and is new territory for Idarah; The Rainbow Hunter hasn’t had the lungs for a deep surface but a wind op may have helped: 8.2 on BETDAQ this morning.
2.55 Haydock (Grand National Trial) I pointed out earlier in the week that recent winners of this made a big impact on the National market but not on the race itself: in fact, three of the last four winners pulled up at Aintree.
It’s among the beaten horses that you are likely to find the Aintree winner: Mon Mome was seventh and Neptune Collonges second on their way to National glory.
Neptune Collonges was beaten in this race last year by Giles Cross, who pulled up behind Monbeg Dude in the Welsh National, but you can always ignore his first run back. He likes to make all the running, a tall order in the Chepstow mud after a long holiday.
Silver By Nature won this two years ago but that was after a run back. He can usually be discounted on his reappearance. That’s today.
Monbeg Dude is raised 10lb for the Chepstow success, with the runner-up, Teaforthree now weighted to reverse the placings. Viking Blond let me down with a poor run.
Well Refreshed is up a total of 29lb for his recent winning spree. The placed horses behind him on the last day aren’t much cop, and he’s 12lb for three lengths worse off with today’s favourite, Rigadin De Beauchene, on their one-two at Lingfield in December.
Cannington Brook loves Haydock but the question today is whether his battles there and at Ffos Las recently have left their mark – they’ve certainly cost him a 21lb rise, all told – and the Tommy Whittle form, when he beat the class-4 winner, Merry King, didn’t impress me.
He finished well behind Giles Cross in the 2011 Welsh National; now he has to give him weight. Giles Cross was 9.8 this morning in a tempting BETDAQ orange of 105%.
I think they will all find it mighty difficult to get to him on this ground. If one does so, he will need to be a sure stayer, and the Cheltenham 4m winner, Teaforthree, fits that bill, but has a bit too much weight and I prefer the family name of Rigadin De Beauchene at this trip.
3.10 Gowran Park (Red Mills Trial Hurdle) This was the Champion Hurdle stepping-stone for Hardy Eustace (2005). Macs Joy, the winner the following year, was runner-up for the Cheltenham title. Solwhit took it in the year of his Aintree Hurdle success.
Zaidpour should continue the tradition of a top-class winner on his way to the World Hurdle but Missunited is three times the offer for a place (at 2.9) than Zaidpour is to win and I think she can stop a Willie Mullins one-two by finishing in front of the disappointing So Young.
3.15 Ascot Bourne won this last year and we were ‘on’ in this column at 14-1. He is expected to run well, despite a 15lb higher mark.
The Bear Trap is up in class and weight (so, too, Queens Grove and Whitby Jack) but General Miller returns, no doubt ‘got up’ for this, 6lb lower than when he was favourite to beat Overturn before a long, enforced holiday.
Tango De Juilley (8.4 on BETDAQ as I write), who also had a year off, ran in a Grade 2 first run back and should be spot on now, raised in trip to a distance more suitable on breeding.
It takes two to tango and Venetia Williams is having one of her best seasons, skillful placing of her horses being one of her great assets. Start the music.
3.35 Wincanton (Kingwell Hurdle) Champion Hurdle winner Katchit (2008) and third Rhinestone Cowboy, plus World Hurdle winner Inglis Drever (2005), all took this on the way to Cheltenham.
CD-winner Zarkandar is a hot favourite in his Champion Hurdle trial, with Raya Star nearest in the ratings, having improved 16lb this season, according to the handicapper.
Zarkandar is up only 5lb on last season and wouldn’t it be an awfully sad tribute to Darlan, who beat Raya Star four lengths and more at Chrtistmas, if Alan King’s ‘Star’ improved past Zarkandar here. At 6.2 Raya Star, I’ll have a punt.
3.50 Ascot Chase Riverside Theatre has won this on the way to back-to-back Ryanair wins but now gives way to his stablemate Finians Rainbow who, along with Cue card, are ahead of Riverside Theatre in this year’s Ryanair betting.
Captain Chris stands in their way. He’s finished in front of every one of these runners before and went down only a neck to Long Run at Kempton yet is 3.55 against this morning. Gotta be a nap!
4.25 Ascot Sprinter Sacre was third in the Supreme Novices Hurdle after winning this and trainer Nicky Henderson now saddles River Maigue, who would press market leaders, My Tent Or Yours and Jezni, for this year’s Supreme if he won this.
Far West, odds-on this morning, is a shorter price for the Triumph than River Maigue for the Supreme, and the four-year-old gets 9lb. A race to watch.
5.00 Ascot Sprinter Sacre made a winning debut in this (2010), as one of four Nicky Henderson winners since 2004, so all eyes will be on Captain Cutter against the Champion Bumper contender, Red Sherlock. Another watching brief on an informative day.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5.7pts win VINO GRIEGO and 2.7pts win THE RAINBOW HUNTER (2.40 Ascot)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 3.3pts win RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE and 2.2pts win GILES CROSS (2.55 Haydock)
PLACE BET: 1pt win MISSUNITED and 5pts place (3.10 Gowran Park)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 6pts win GENERAL MILLER and 4pts win TANGO DE JUILLEY (3.15 Ascot)
BET 3.8pts win RAYA STAR (3.35 Wincanton)
BET 7.8pts win (nap) CAPTAIN CHRIS (3.50 Ascot)
Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (divide 20 by the stake). Jackpot bets are where stakes are raised to win 30 or more points, as stated.
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