At least we know now what’s running in this afternoon’s Tattersalls Irish 200 Guineas. Exit Loch Garman, exit Cristoforo Colombo, enter Trading Leather, enter Magician.
Of course, there is a precedent for an O’Brien dropping a high-class three-year-old colt down in distance, altering the trajectory of his distance curve so that he turns into a Guineas horse when it appeared for all the world that he had been on an inexorable march towards middle distances.
Many Classics have been run since the Vincent O’Brien-trained Sadler’s Wells won the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial over 10 furlongs before dropping back down in trip to a mile for the Irish 2000 Guineas. He won that too, beating the favourite Secreto, trained by Vincent’s son David, and his own stable companion Capture Him, whom Pat Eddery had chosen to ride in front of the horse who would go on to become the most prolific progenitor of his generation.
That was in 1984, 29 years ago today (feeling old?), on the day when Aidan O’Brien tries a similar strategy with the appropriately-named Magician. The Galileo colt was impressive in landing the Dee Stakes (pictured). He showed a fine turn of foot that day for Ryan Moore to come clear of some useful rivals, and he immediately went into some well-respected notebooks as a lively one for the Derby.
But such is the strength and depth of the Ballydoyle Derby battalions that a divide-and-deploy strategy was always likely. The Prix du Jockey Club, over 10 and a half furlongs, was the most likely alternative for Magician – who was always so weak in the Epsom Derby market that you never felt that he was really a likely runner – so it was at least mildly surprising when he was left in the Irish Guineas at declaration stage on Thursday.
It is a fascinating project. Magician’s dam, by the sprinter Mozart, won three races in her racing career, all of them, including a listed race, over six furlongs. Also, Magician himself showed plenty of pace in the Dee Stakes to come clear. But that was over 10 furlongs. Pace in a five-runner Group 3 race run over 10 furlongs is very different to the pace that will be required to win an Irish Guineas over a mile today. Also, Magician’s sire is obviously an influence for stamina, and he certainly wasn’t stopping at the end of 10 furlongs at Chester. You wouldn’t have concluded from the visual impression of that race that he was unlikely to get a mile and a half.
Of course, he could have Guineas pace, and the fact that Aidan O’Brien is running him in the race, and that Joseph is riding him in preference to his three stable companions, suggests that he is showing all of that pace at home. But he is short at around 3.5. It is easy to be against him at that.
Van Der Neer and George Vancouver represent the Newmarket Guineas form. The Richard Hannon horse will appreciate the stiff mile at The Curragh, and George Vancouver, a son of Henrythenavigator, will appreciate the fast ground, but there is a chance that, Dawn Approach apart, the French Guineas had a greater strength in-depth to it than the Newmarket race this year.
Toronado didn’t run his race at Newmarket, and a 150/1 shot, who had been beaten in seven of his eight previous races, finished second. Also, all the best French three-year-old colts stayed at home to contest their own Guineas this year and, although you could have thrown a one-length long horse blanket over the first five home at Longchamp, they all recorded a Racing Post Rating of greater than 110, as did sixth-placed Morandi. At Newmarket, only Dawn Approach and Glory Awaits did.
Havana Gold finished fifth at Longchamp, but there are reasons for believing that he can do better this afternoon. Firstly, although he was only fifth, he was only a total of three parts of a length behind the winner. Secondly, he didn’t get the run of the race.
Settled well out the back in the early stages from a fairly wide draw in a race in which it was probably an advantage to be handy, he travelled supremely well into the home straight, and he picked up impressively when a magical gap opened on the far side. Even though he was checked in his run, he still hit the front deep inside the final furlong, racing towards the inside on what was probably the worst of the ground, and he looked the most likely winner of the race, before his surge just flattened out.
Nevertheless, the turn of foot that took him to the front in a Classic was the turn of foot of a highly-talented individual. That was only two weeks ago, but he proved last year when he ran Ghurair to a head just nine days after winning the Group 3 Somerville Tattersall Stakes at Newmarket that he can put in big back-to-back runs, and trainer Richard Hannon reports him in really good form. And don’t be put off by the fact that Richard Hughes rides Van Der Neer; Havana Gold is owned by Qatar Racing, so he is Jamie Spencer’s ride.
There are many fascinating aspects to the race. Trading Leather is a really interesting horse. Like Magician, you would have thought that he was destined for middle distances, but Jim Bolger had many options for this race, and it is significant that Trading Leather is his number one. He should come on plenty for his return in the Dante, and he will love the fast ground.
Fort Knox is the other fascinating contender. The Dubawi colt is having his first run for Sheikh Mohammed as an owner and his first for newly-licensed trainer Johnny Murtagh, but not much will have changed for the horse, bar a new set of silks on his rider (and trainer). He is less experienced than ideal for a Guineas, but he shaped mighty impressively in winning the Guineas Trial at Leopardstown last month.
All that into the mix, however, and Havana Gold looks the most over-priced horse in the race at 9.0 or 9.2. He could go a lot closer than those odds suggest.
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