QUEEN’S ‘GOLD’ HERO WAS KING-SIZE ON BETDAQ: Daqman joined in the royal celebrations when his Gold Cup bet, Her Majesty’s Estimate (WON 7-2 from 7.0 on BETDAQ), gamely won the big race at Royal Ascot yesterday.
NAY, NEVER ONE SO FAST: Daqman had started the third day of the meeting with No Nay Never (WON 4-1), the American-trained winner of the Norfolk Stakes in faster-than-average time, and showed a profit on the day.
BIG VALUE AGAIN TODAY: It’s same again today with BETDAQ offers in the orange which totted up to between 102 and 109% this morning, including races where the SP Total with bookmakers last year was 125 and 131, taking more than a quarter of your winnings!
DAQMAN MOVES ALL IN FOR BANKER NUMBER SEVEN: Daqman has a maximum-stakes nap today, Battle Of Marengo in the ‘Ascot Derby,’ King Edward V11 Stakes. His bankers are currently six out of seven.
2.30 Royal Ascot (Albany Stakes) A trainer on the up, trying to make the Group-1 breakthroughs, will always hope his best geese are swans. Richard Fahey has had a lot of disappointment with Garswood.
And his two-year-olds Parbold and Eccleston – said to be on a par and close to Sandiva – performed one well and one badly at Royal Ascot this week.
Unlike Parbold, who beat them all in the Coventry barring the freak winner, War Command, with just one run to his name, Sandiva has done her improving on the racetrack.
After winning six lengths on the debut, she took in a Listed sprint at Naas: the daughter of Foiotprintsinnthesand traveled like a dream, beating five winners.
The third that day, Fig Roll, ran fourth to the runaway Rizeena in the Queen Mary on Wednesday so the form is rock solid. The qualifying factor – which is what may have divided the performances of Parbold and Eccleston – is: will she perform on the fast ground?
Midnite Angel ran away with a race at Windsor but looked very keen and, unless she settles, might not last home in the wide open spaces of Ascot.
Rasheeda impressed at Doncaster and, with bags of stamina on the dam’s side, Wedding Ring will relish a strong pace in the high draw. Her form is linked with Kiyoshi who comes from a race of winners.
Wonderfully is a sister to Mars in the obviously popular mating of Galileo with Danehill mares, since it has produced Teofilo, Intello and Frankel, though Mars hasn’t told us much about this particular dam.
Joyeuse is a half-sister to Frankel and Lady Cecil’s squad is in dynamic form with figures in the last week of 11023421311220021.
VERDICT: Pure guesswork picking from these young fillies. My job is to try to find the ‘wrong’ price in the orange, and offers of around 14.0 Kiyoshi and Wedding Ring – both high drawn – are big. I’ll take low-drawn Joyeuse as saver on the other side.
3.05 Royal Ascot (King Edward V11 Stakes) It’s the Ascot Derby, a 1m 4f consolation for Epsom, with its best modern winner, Nathaniel (2011), who went on to capture the King George and the following season’s Eclipse.
VERDICT: Battle Of Marengo was fourth at Epsom, beaten less than two lengths overall, and this theoretical drop in class (the King Edward is Group 2) should see him home despite a penalty for winning the Leopardstown Derby Trial.
3.45 Royal Ascot (Coronation Stakes) This is the Newmarket Guineas play all over again but with extras. The one-two Sky Lantern and Just The Judge are joined on stage by Pavlosk, Siyenica and Viztoria. I’ve left out Maureen and Big Break for the following reasons.
Like Toronado in the 2,000, Richard Hannon thought his stablemate Maureen didn’t run her race when sixth in the English 1,000, but she was beaten even further by Just the Judge in the Irish 1,000, in which Rehn’s Nest was second and Big Break was fourth first time back.
But Big Break, Rehn’s Nest, Kenhope, Viztoria and Agent Allison all seem to need rain. Purr Along could improve for better ground but looks exposed, and is making her seasonal reappearance.
That leaves me thinking that Pavlosk and Siyenca are the potential improvers, if Sky Lantern and Just The Judge trip up.
Siyenica wouldn’t have been suited y soft in the Saint-Alary in my opinon. Her sire gets good ground horses and her dam, a daughter of Danehill, has had only three foals, two high-class.. both preferring a sound surface.
The same applies to supplementary-entry Pavlosk, whom we saw winning well on the soft at York. Her sire, Arch, got a massive dollar-earner on very fast ground in America, while the dam’s best has won Group races on good.
VERDICT: Could it be that we still haven’t seen the best filly miler? There’s not much between Sky Lantern, Just The Judge and Rehn’s Nest, who all have massively high draws and will be shuffled back.
Step forward Pavlosk (9.0) and Siyenica (11.5), both having had just two runs and open to any amount of improvement. Saver Just The Judge.
4.25 Royal Ascot (Wolferton handicap) Four-year-olds dominate this (9 out of 10) but the leading stables in the race – those of John Gosden and Sir Michael Stoute – both run five-year-olds.
In fact, four-year-olds are thin on the ground this year and the best of them may be Albasharah, another Arch filly (see Pavlosk).
VERDICT She is a very big beast. It didn’t stop her negotiating bends at Kempton and Doncaster and the long, long Ascot straight should see her galloping into history. A Group horse in a handicap.
5.00 Royal Ascot (Queen’s Vase) Remember my list of so-called ‘dead certs’ (see Archive, Monday) – the good things that may or may not happen this week at Royal Ascot.
Well, we’re just about breaking even, thanks to Dawn Approach, but Battle Of Marengo (see 3.05) and Leading Light in this Queens Vase could put the short-shots in front.
Leading Light gives away three lengths in penalties but that won’t count for a great deal over 2m, and otherwise he’s 8lb clear of this field on official ratings and Ballydoyle has won it twice in six years.
Yesterday’s Gold Cup winner, Estimate, took the race last year, after two runs for Sir Michael Stoute, same as his candidate this time, Baihas.
Mark Johnston has won it five times in 10 years with an entirely different approach: all had at least four runs.
Mark’s figures for the race are 141101. Royal Skies leads his three-pronged attack in the market, followed by Mister Impatience – both with four or more runs – whereas Johnny Murtagh’s mount, Federal Blue, has had only two.
Royal Skies missed a 12-furlong race yesterday. I will take it to mean that was his intended mission but the ground was too firm. Unless it rains, he’s in the same boat here, so I’ll take him out of the equation.
John Gosden has at last struck big-race form (a truly R emote winner in top grade for him this season) and Nichols Canyon has all the makings of a stayer.
VERDICT: We simply don’t know which three-year-olds will show the required stamina. I don’t even know the ground over my cornflakes (it might rain). But I do know that Leading Light has won on firm and on heavy.
Disclaimer (5.6) has got the tee-shirt. Nichols Canyon (11.0) has the looks on breeding and on form. So my model finish is 1 Leading Light 2 Disclaimer 3 Nichols Canyon
DAQMAN’S BETS (all to win 30 points except the banker)
BET 2.3pts win on each KIYOSHI and WEDDING RING with 1.7pts win (stakes saver) JOYEUSE (2.30 Royal Ascot)
BANKER BET 20pts win (nap) BATTLE OF MARENGO (3.05 Royal Ascot)
BET 3.75pts win PAVLOSK and 2.8pts win SIYENACA plus 2pts win (stakes saver) JUST THE JUDGE (3.45 Royal Ascot)
BET 7pts win ALBASHARAH (4.25 Royal Ascot)
BET 6.5pts win DISCLAIMER and 3pts win NICHOLS CANYON plus 4.4pts win (stakes saver) LEADING LIGHT (5.00 Royal Ascot)
BET 4pts win EMILIO LARGO and 1.6pts win CAMPANOLOGY (5.35 Royal Ascot)
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