9-1 WINNER FOLLOWS 10-1 TWICE: ‘First-Class’ tipping as Daqman followed up his two 10-1 winners on Monday and Tuesday with a 9-1 scorer yesterday (First Class Favour), though it wasn’t the race he highlighted. ‘I sunk the black but not in the pocket I nominated,’ says Daqman, who had an unusual blank night at Kempton Park. His sequence of tasty winners is:
WON 10-1 Orthopaedic Remedy (Ripon Rowels, Monday)
WON 10-1 Maven (City Of Ripon Handicap, Tuesday)
WON 9-1 First Class Favour (Carlisle yesterday)
SOME SECRETS OF DAQMAN’S LAYS SEQUENCES: Today Daqman starts a series of articles on what to look for when laying horses. Look out for more lays this weekend and more in the series at a future date. Here’s his current run of lays:
WON: Simenon (Aug 23) 2nd 15-8 favourite
WON: Pavlosk (Aug 23) 2nd 6-4 favourite
WON: Parbold (Aug 24) 3rd 11-4 favourite
WON: Cirrus Des Aigles (Aug 25) unplaced 2-1 favourite
WON: Astonishing (Aug 25) 2nd 9-4 favourite
WON: Breaking The Bank (Aug 26) unplaced 4-1
Imagine having only 20 or 30 bets a year. Then imagine 18 of them win. Do I do that? No, but I know a man who does. Personally, I have small bets all the time because of the great value on BETDAQ, though my bigger bets are much less frequent.
That man I know who has just a couple of win bets a month still studies form most days, and his rules for finding winners generates lays all the time but not often ‘cert’ winners (I’m talking 18 out of 20, which is as near certainty as you can get).
I’ve adopted his list of Golden Rules – and added some of my own – which is one reason why, not for the first time, I’ve managed to land six lays in a row, five of them favourites. My longest sequence is 16.
Rule 1 is always the same: examine the favourite for flaws. If he is seriously flawed, you have to decide whether to lay him or bet against him. Or both (what I call my Double Whammy).
The hyped horse Punters will follow horses into the knackers’ yard, often throwing away their ‘hard-earned’ on promises or on what used to be.
Case in point? Well, that’s gotta be Cirrus Des Aigles, the ‘cloud of eagles’, who once swooped on Frankel and ‘nearly’ gave him a serious race. Nearly. And he’s been living off that ever since.
Maybe Frankel ‘destroyed him’. He’s never been the same horse since that day at Ascot last October when he tried to complete the Champion Stakes double and failed, and has lost four times in its wake, even when dropped to Group 2 and Group 3
Excuses, excuses, there have been many. He was short of work. Short of peak fitness. Not yet come to himself. Really an autumn horse, you know (even though he had six wins from January to June on his CV).
The truth is he is seven, unlikely to hold the form of his youth and even more unlikely to improve. Yet, in his last four races, against young bloods like Novellist and Tres Blue, he has started evens, 6-4, 10-9 on, and 2-1, favourite every time.
You can’t always lay a horse simply because he’s bad value, not even because he’s short for no reason (could be a coup!), but you most certainly lay a horse who is consistently disappointing yet invariably favourite.
The false favourite You’ll find favourites to oppose among those running over the wrong distance, on the wrong ground, from a bad draw, from stables out of form, or when the market leader is surrounded by winners in the race or by animals with potential that could at any time overtake his form.
I’ve found races this year with ALL those factors to field against the favourite. Sometimes those favourites were not even placed.
But my favourite measure of a favourite’s worth is ‘class.’ Just the other day, there was a hot market leader in a class-3 handicap raised in weight after winning a class-5.
Class-5 and class-6 winners hardly ever win again immediately, even when remaining in their own class, never mind take the leap of class required by their ratings rise. Unless they are young improvers (they certainly go in again very rarely if seven-year-olds!)
The staking plan If we go back to the beginning of this column: I know a man who has 20 or 30 lays a week. And another who has several in each race on which he concentrates.
It’s all down to staking to the percentages, and I’ll discuss making things like a ‘back and lay book’ and a ‘reverse book’ in this column one of these days.
My column, inevitably, has to work on BETDAQ offers at the time I write. I could give you ‘ifs and buts’ about what to back later in the day, what to back and lay, and so on. But I have just so much space, and I would have a host of instant detractors if I started making claims based on my projections for the market.
I restrict my published lays to level stakes, seeking out false favourites alone, when I can, which has two added benefits:
Firstly, I know I can make a profit with favourites. I set myself a 72% strike rate, and I often better that (like now at six in a row)
But trying to knock out the favourite has a second, more important reason for any backers but, in particular, BETDAQ bettors.
I have been listing in this column SP take-outs by the bookies of up to 37% which means it’s very hard for the punter to make a profit. The same races have been 110% ‘books’ (lists in the orange added up to total percentage probability) or often considerably less on BETDAQ in the morning.
If the favourite is 2-1 (which is 33%) and you think he can’t win, then, theoretically, hopefully, your 110% orange is now 77% on BETDAQ (77 points required to stake to win 100), where backers with the bookies will still be struggling for a level playing-field.
In theory, hopefully, you can now find a winner at value-plus (the amazing value of the BETDAQ market, less your knocking out the favourite).
I keep saying ‘in theory’ and ‘hopefully’ but that is only when I’m dealing with an individual race. Your job (if you want to win money), and mine, is to bet in the longer term, securing enough ‘results’ from the races in which we oppose the favourites to make an overall profit.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6pts win ULIS DE VASSY and 5pts win GREY SOLDIER (3.20 Stratford)
BET 3pts win ANOTHER FOR JOE (3.40 Hamilton)
BET 10pts win (nap) JOSEF GOYA (5.10 Lingfield)
BET 4pts win WEDDING SPEECH (7.40 Lingfield)
BE T 6.6pts win LEVI DRAPER (9.20 Kempton)
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