GROUND FORCES BIG SPRINT BET ON GARSWOOD: With rain forecast on already-softened ground, Daqman opts for Garswood over firm-surface sprinting lion Lethal Force in the big race at Haydock this afternoon.
DAQMAN PICKS OUTSIDERS ON BETDAQ AT 20.0, 17.0, 16.0 AND 14.5: Daqman is hunting down the value in handicaps at Ascot, Haydock and Kempton Park. Mindful of the worrying weather, he stakes to win only 20 points but makes up for it with huge offers: 20.0, 17.0, 16.0 and 14.5, plus a 5-1 nap!
1.55 Ascot In the frame twice in the Royal Hunt Cup, Don’t Call Me, is claimed off today, offsetting a 9lb higher mark than when he won this race last year, so that the fourth horse then, CD-winner Field Of Dream, has only 2lb with which to make up more than two lengths. But there is a low-draw bias: stalls 2 to 6 have filled four of the six places in the two previous runnings of this race and Field Of Dream was drawn 16 last year to Don’t Call Me’s 2.
The exact same (tautology, be my friend) happened in the Royal Hunt Cup in June when Field Of Dream (14.5 on BETDAQ this morning) was second of the stands’ side group, drawn 19, with Don’t Call me only fourth on the far side from 7, when the first two home came from 6 and 2. They are brought together today by middle stalls, from which the jockeys can choose the favoured side.
Shebibi (in 3), Glen Moss (6) and Galician (9) like to be in the van, pulling Pythagorean (offers of 9.0, stall 2) into contention. He was badly drawn out wide at Goodwood last time, and I rate him the form horse over Ascription (needs cut), on lines through Glen Moss and Democretes.
2.05 Haydock (Be Friendly Handicap) Confessional, who won this in 2010, is back down 12lb lower than last season when he was not disgraced in a Group-3 at Ascot on the soft. His stable has bounced back to a hot seam of form recently and he could do the same with the ground in his favour.
The 17.0 on BETDAQ this morning is well over the top. Some idea of his chance can be gauged from his being 20lb better off with Racy for four lengths on June form, and 10lb better with Judge ‘N Jury, though he finished in front of him at Epsom that month.
The favourite, Above Standard, who’s won his races on firmish ground, has raced only once on soft (6th of 7). Rocky Ground’s sire gets good-to-firm progeny.
Normal Equilibrium seems to prefer a tight, turning track. Harrison George’s run may have come to an end. So it seems set up for an outsider.
2.20 Kempton (September Stakes) Royal Empire’s Group-3 penalty makes this harder, and Main Sequence seldom has his heart in the job, so I’m taking Masterstroke for a return to form, with his stable on a Kempton hat-trick today after a double there last night.
Globetrotting Wigmore Hall could be a danger on this surface, offered at 9.8 as I wrote. The 107% total percentage in the orange means I have enough leeway over the bookies’ prices to back two (the Total SP is likely to be around 117% as last year).
2.40 Haydock (Superior Mile) Gabrial, Montiridge, Nine Realms, Highland Knight and Anna’s Pearl have all front-run, making the shape of the race only guesswork and, with Tawhid, Hay Dude and Top Notch Tonto all winners after heavy rain, the outcome of this is anybody’s guess.
2.55 Kempton (London Mile Final) Four-year-olds had won this every time until a freak result last year when high-drawn horses came by off a very strong pace.
There have also been plenty of shocks at 33-1 (three times), 25-1 and 20-1 since 2006. Yet there is a solid clue to finding the winner: the last five to take this series final had all been in the first three of a qualifier (one won, three second, one third).
Ehtedaam, Loving Spirit, Solar Deity, Seek Again, Loyalty, Maverik and Shavansky all fit the bill, with Shavansky last year’s winner.
Shavansky, 2lb higher but claimed off today, is better off this time around with Loving Spirit (3rd), George Guru (4th), Chapter And Verse (11th) and Maverik (13th), though not with Nazreef (last of 16).
A good run by Ascription (1.55 Ascot) would boost Graphic’s chance on their Haydock one-two, but Graphic suddenly stepped up that day on a two-year-run in the doldrums and the form seems suspect.
I’m going with Seek Again, who came on the scene off a wide draw too late to catch Ehtedaam in a recent qualifier. Ehtedaam had a better draw and first time hood that day. Seek Again has the stall advantage now.
3.15 Haydock (Old Borough Cup) Mark Johnston has won this four times in the last decade – form figures for it of 10101001 – and he could provide the upset here with Scatter Dice (20.0 on BETFDAQ this morning), who has raced most of her life at 1m 4f but the last time she was up in trip, she got within about two lengths of the winner of the Pitman’s Derby (2m, soft).
Second in the race was Johnston stablemate, Oriental Fox (offered 9.8 today), who franked his form when similarly stepped up in trip for the Shergar Cup, beaten in a blanket finish after being ‘murdered’ on the rails (quote unquote the Racing Post analysis).
The favourite today, Pallasator, hiked to a 100 rating after winning over CD on heavy last September, hasn’t been seen since, and the profile smacks of those Sir Mark Prescott’s coups we used to savour in the old days.
Suraj has his ground but I doubt he’s quite good enough, and the improver Poyle Thomas is by a sire, Rail Link, who has had only three soft-ground wins in his stud career so far. Similarly, Teofilio (Clowance Estate) has had very much more success on top of the ground.
3.30 Ascot On form in the Spring – a line through Renew – Café Society is a couple of pounds behind Glenard and unlucky to be beaten since, winning at Salisbury and finishing too late when raised to today’s level at Goodwood.
Glenard, too, has done well. He had Dare To Achieve further behind him than was Dare To Achieve behind the winner of a Group-3. So, all in all, I reckon Glenard’s 16.0 on BETDAQ this morning is too big.
Special Meaning has done typical Mark Johnston front-running acts at a lower level but I wouldn’t count on his getting away with it here, up 22lb since the sequence began in June.
3.50 Haydock Sprint Cup Last year’s runner-up Gordon Lord Byron (Hawkeyethenoo 11th) and the 2011 third, Hoof It, are back for more today, and Garswood drops back in trip with soft ground likely to give this Group-2 7f horse a big chance of winding back the clock to his head defeat in the Cornwallis (5f Ascot soft) last October.
You see, the answer to ‘can anything stop the flying Lethal Force?’ is yes, the ground. Last time he was beaten was on good to soft, albeit only a head at York in May, on his seasonal debut, but he meets the third, Gordon Lord Byron, 5lb worse for just over a length, and Lethal Force has only ever won on good to firm.
It’s very hard to choose between Lethal Force, Gordon Lord Byron and Garswood, separated by less than two points at the front of the BETDAQ market, as I write but, if the rain is falling as your cursor the orange, you have to take anything like the 6.2 Garswood.
5.20 Kempton In the belief that what’s between the lines is more than the bare form of Canon Law, I’m taking this Luca Cumani dark horse for a sporting nap today (at 6.0 on BETDAQ) after an exhausting – for me, I mean – six sequence came unstuck on a dross day of yesterday. Good punting!
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET: 2.5pts win PYTHAGOREAN and 1.4pts win and place FIELD OF DREAM (1.55 Ascot)
BET 1.25pts win and place CONFESSIONAL (2.05 Haydock)
BET 4pts win MASTERSTROKE and 2.2pts win WIGMORE HALL (2.20 Kempton)
BET 4.2pts win SEEK AGAIN (2.55 Kempton)
BET 2.2pts win ORIENTAL FOX, 1pt win and place SCATTER DICE and 1.2pts win (stakes saver) PALLASATOR (3.15 Haydock)
BET 4.8pts win CAFÉ SOCIETY, and 1.3pts win and place GLENARD (3.30 Ascot)
BET 3.8pts win GARSWOOD (3.50 Haydock)
BET 4pts win (nap) CANON LAW (5.20 Kempton)
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