BETDAQ RULES WITH STUNNING VALUE: As Daqman plumped for Queensberry Rules as his Cambridgeshire No 1, he noted ‘stunning value’ in the BETDAQ orange for the Newmarket big-race sequence from 2 pm to 3.50 pm, with offers adding up to 101, 102, 99 and 103% (Cambridgeshire). Compare 111, 118, 113 and 135% (Cambridgeshire), the bookies’ Total SP for those races last year.
LOOK OUT FOR DAQMAN’S SATURDAY YANKEES: Daqman has had a glorious year (more about that next week) and will celebrate with Saturday yankees on Cambridgeshire and Cesarewitch day. He will try to pay for 1-point yankees with a 10-point lays.
142-1 AUTUMN DOUBLE: For an even crazier bet, try Daqman’s Cambridgeshire horse, Queensberry Rules at 12-1, with Tac De Boistron from Daqman’s horses-to-follow at 10-1 in a Ladbrokes Autumn Double at 142-1.
2.00 Newmarket (Royal Lodge Stakes) Derby winners Shirley Heights (won this in 1977) and Benny The Dip (1996) before Frankel (2010) were the big Royal Lodge scorers, spaced out over 35 years. But you never know what promise is in store for us today.
Ballydoyle’s winners (five since 1999) have not been great names, though one of Mark Johnston’s three – Mister Baileys (2003) – followed up in the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas.
I’m Somewhat mystified as to why the eponymous Gerald Mosse ride is so close to Berkshire in the BETDAQ market this morning, with eight lengths to make up on him, if Chesham form is to be believed.
When Somewhat won the Washington Singer, he was the eighth winner to come out of that Royal Ascot race, which should make Berkshire odds on for this.
But he isn’t. And he hasn’t run since Ascot. You and I can only guess whether Somewhat has overtaken Berkshire since June. The market will tell you even more later on but, over my cornflakes, I can’t split stakes in the usual Daqman way but I’ll put Berkshire in my Daq Multiples yankee.
2.15 Market Rasen A sequence of double-figure prices was ended with a well-backed local winner last year. Tim Vaughan has three goes at the prize today.
Richard Johnson appears to have picked Falcarragh, well clear of Ittirad in the summer and probably good enough to hold him again despite the revised weights. Vaughan knows the form with Laudatory through Hawkhill.
But Falcarragh was a lonely dog on a raft this morning, well over my betting weir for such a situation, 14.0 on BETDAQ. That’s the big goodbye.
The grey Watered Silk has been laid out for the race after a CD double in the Spring and a recent run back on the Flat to put an edge on him. McCoy’s mount Prompter has not so far shown this level of form, but has to be the stakes saver.
2.35 Newmarket (Cheveley Park Stakes) John Gosden and Brian Meehan have had success in this, but the two 1,000 Guineas winners it has produced in the last decade were both trained in France, like Vorda today.
You must have one that’s done well in the pattern already (Group winners are 7-10), and Vorda split two outstanding two-year-olds when runner-up in the Morny.
But (there’s always a ‘snag’, isn’t there) will this particular French filly act on the sound surface at HQ today? It was good ground (by French standards) when she earlier won the Robert Papin, though the time was slow.
Princess Noor trotted up on the fast Ascot turf in July but that was first-time blinkers, and there’s no guarantee they will work again. Joyeuse has done no wrong but must make the leap from Listed level and was only third in the Albany behind Kiyoshi.
Kiyoshi ran close to Rizeena in the Moyglare, which puts her a length and half behind Vorda. So it has to be Vorda and, if she can win this, you could be talking about a filly of the quality of Ma Biche, Natagora and Special Duty, who followed the same path. It’s a nap vote for class.
2.50 Market Rasen The second of two big Rasen races this afternoon, again with double-figure-priced winners. Not a favourite in sight.
Yet the race has a man to follow here, trainer Peter Bowen, who landed a hat-trick (2007-9, and today runs Al Co (prefers to go left-handed) and Kian’s Delight.
Last year’s winner, The Disengager, is back for more off an 18lb higher mark, with Bobowen 7lb better, needing to make up only a length, and the fifth, Buck Mulligan, having a 23lb pull.
But The Disengager spread-eagled more of today’s field at Newton Abbot in the summer, and again they come back at him, better off at the weights: Rob Conti, Twirling Magnet, Kian’s Delight.
For the second time running at Rasen today, I find myself admiring the placing skills of Lucy Wadham, who has Wiesentraum in here off a featherweight, after he scooted round another turning track at Southwell though, again, just the doubt about going right-handed today.
Bold Chief and Grandads Horse are emerging novices, but I can’t have the favourite, Dover’s Hill, at age 11. He likes to go for broke, and is the class horse on old form, but there are too many young front-runners here on this fast, turning track.
In the end, I decided to go with Philip Hobbs, who has top and bottomweights, The Disengager (13.0 on BETDAQ, as I write) and Rob Conti (18.0).
3.10 Newmarket (Sun Chariot Stakes) You have to go back five years to find a winning three-year-old. If the Classic season can redress the balance today, it would mean Sky Lantern settling the grudge match with Elusive Kate.
But both have been beaten since that day Elusive Kate got the verdict as they veered across the heath. Back there today, ‘Kate’ has a pull in the weights on Sky Lantern, who has already beaten Just the Judge twice.
Elusive Kate (3.8 as I write) has beaten Duntle (has beaten Chigun) and I think she can bounce back, despite learning a lesson from Midnight Cloud last time out and despite the fast ground. After all, it was good to firm at Newmarket the day she brought down Sky.
3.50 Newmarket (Cambridgeshire) My ABCD Guide (see Archive for Thursday) left you to add an ‘E’ for the draw (7 out of 10 from stall 15 or higher), which produces top marks for Bronze Angel, Red Avenger and Strictly Silver, with Ascription and Graphic the plus horses on the ratings but yet to win at the trip.
Another way of assessing a huge field like this is to divide it into groups of seven to nine horses and decide which horse wins each separate ‘race’. Then add them together as a final-decider ‘race’.
Educate You look for three specifics in the Cambridgeshire: a horse laid out long term for the race, one with ability in big fields, and which is the medium of a gamble on the day.
The ‘gamble’ may or may not happen later on, but Educate is one laid out for the race and has no fear in fields that surround him with horses. Johnny Murtagh a bonus. Firmish ground not so good.
Belgian Bill, winner of the Royal Hunt Cup, will also relish the field but wins only after a break and is worse off with Arsaadi. But free-running Arsaadi and 7f-winner Field Of Dream, from this top-of-the-card group, are unlikely to get today’s trip.
Area Fifty One likes a turning track. Ascription needs rain. Prince Of Johanne has been given a chance, 7lb lower than for his last win in July but 10f races were taken off his schedule two years ago.
Danchai The ground is against Chapter Seven. Last year’s winner Bronze Angel has to defy almost a year’s absence with his stable out of form: all bar one of Marcus Tregoning’s last seven runners has drifted to 16-1 and beyond.
As I said earlier in the week, William Haggas has laid his stall out for this race, and has them all of a heap here with Arsaadi, Fury, Danchai and Nine Realms within a pound of each other.
Danchai has to bounce back to his John Smith’s Cup winning form, 6lb higher. But William Buick sticks with him and first-time blinkers could put an edge on this firm-ground lover.
Nine Realms will have trouble holding Jacks Revenge on revised terms if you can believe the Shergar Cup form but both seemingly have the measure of Sam Sharp.
Queensberry Rules, Red Avenger The ground is right for the lowest-weighted Haggas runner, Queensberry Rules, and also for Red Avenger, who have icing-on-the-cake jockey bookings in Ryan Moore and Gerald Mosse. Both are well drawn.
Queensberry Rules was less than a length off the winner in the Britannia at Royal Ascot and didn’t enjoy the sprint finish after slow early sections over a mile at York.
Ryan Moore was up on Red Avenger in two placed runs over 10 furlongs this summer and, if we assume he had some choice in the matter, his riding of Queensberry Rules is a valid marker.
Seek Again, Code Of Honour Top Notch Tonto, a better horse with some cut in the ground, has been punished 17lb for a Group-3 winner earlier in the month.
On revised terms from Kempton, there won’t be much between Graphic and Seek Again – bred to get this trip well and a winner on the firm – while Jack’s Revenge is weighted to close down Nine Realms on Ascot form but that was the Shergar Cup and the action there can be misleading.
Jack’s Revenge, hammered by Ascription at Goodwood, is now 16lb better off, and has Oisin Murphy’s claim to help, but is another who likes some give in the surface. Tres Coronas, too.
Code Of Honour (23.0 on BETDAQ this morning) is very lightly raced and could take a sudden step forward for the laid-back Henry Candy. Don’t let that fool you. He’s one of the elite handicap trainers who know the time of day.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Five of my six against the field have a big advantage in that they are ridden by Johnny Murtagh, Gerald Mosse, Ryan Moore, James Doyle and William Buick.
I’ll try for this order in: 1 Queensberry Rules, 2 Educate, 3 Red Avenger, 4 Seek Again, 5 Code Of Honour, 6 Danchai.
This is the time of year when, hopefully, you are spending the illgotten gains, so I shall have yankees today and on Cesarewitch day. They’re bets that celebrate a great day. Let’s hope we have one.
DAQMAN’S BETS (target raised to 30 points)
BET 4pts win WATERED SILK and 1pt win (stakes saver) PROMPTER (2.15 Market Rasen)
BET 15pts win (nap) VORDA (2.35 Newmarket)
PLACE LAY 10pts DOVER’S HILL and BET 2.5pts win THE DISENGAGER, and 1.7pts win ROB CONTI (2.50 Market Rasen)
BET 10pts win ELUSIVE KATE (3.10 Newmarket)
BET 2.3pts win on each EDUCATE, QUEENSBERRY RULES, 1.5pts win SEEK AGAIN, 1.25pts win on each CODE OF HONOUR and RED AVENGER (3.50 Newmarket)
DAQ MULTIPLES SATURDAY YANKEE: BERKSHIRE (2.00 Newmarket), WATERED SILK (2.15 Market Rasen), VORDA (2.35 Newmarket), ELUSIVE KATE (3.10 Newmarket)
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