146 POINTS PROFIT FROM EIGHT DAYS OUT OF NINE: Super-consistent Daqman has notched up 146 points profit from eight days out of the last nine – just the one losing day and two breakeven – after landing three more winners yesterday, two of them on the BETDAQ-sponsored card at Kempton Park.
GET ON BETDAQ BEFORE THE GAMBLES START: Daqman’s winners were Rufoof (WON 3-1), Extra Noble (WON 7-4) and Red Galileo (WON 1-5). He could have had 2.32 Red Galileo on BETDAQ in the morning but chose SP for that particular bet and his profits lost out to the course gamble. ‘My mistake, and another example of the value on BETDAQ,’ rues our man.
DAY 4: COUNTDOWN TO THE ARC: He’s done it before. And he’s one of the world’s best. Can Aidan O’Brien improve Ruler Of The World to put a low-on-quality 2013 Derby back on the map? Here Daqman compares Ruler’s chances with those of another cross-Channel raider, Al Kazeem.
COUNTDOWN TO THE ARC: RULER OF THE WORLD 7, AL KAZEEM 5
Ruler could yet go top of the world. Ladbrokes, the only bookmaker to give Leading Light an outstanding chance on Sunday, have Ruler Of The World the same price as his stablemate, shorter than most firms.
In the good old bad old days, Ruler would have been a world-beater as winner of the Epsom Derby, but the planet’s most famous Derby – the original – has dipped in authority in too many recent years, and this season has struggled to show class and strength off the podium.
Just for a moment as he passed the post in front of the Dante winner, Libertarian, Ruler Of The World seemed just that, the eponymous hero. But the placed horses, Libertarian and Galileo Rock, have failed to score since and were behind Leading Light in the St Leger.
Fifth colt, Ocavango, was beaten by Flintshire in the Grand Prix, and was then behind Kizuna in the Niel. Sixth horse, Mars, saw the back of Al Kazeem in the Eclipse, and so on.
Only one horse can be said to have redeemed himself to an extent. That horse is Ruler Of The World, written off by the pundits when he flopped in the Irish Derby on firm ground. But then he ran Japan Derby winner Kizuna to a short head in the Niel on soft (Ocavango and Flintshire behind).
So the secret to him seems to be cut in the ground (it was an easy ‘good’ at Epsom) and, with rain forecast before the Paris showdown Sunday, there is hope for him yet, particularly as he has run only five races in his life.
Meanwhile, Al Kazeem, the Eclipse winner, completing five wins in a row, came unstuck in the International at York after his long season and then in the Irish Champion Stakes behind The Fugue.
He has won over 1m 4f but is unlikely to stay the trip well enough in Arc company. Though he acts on the soft, it will be his undoing over the distance and, as a five-year-old, he is vulnerable to the young improvers of Classic quality.
DAQMAN’S MATCH VERDICT: Ruler Of The World 7, Al Kazeem 5. OFFICIAL RATINGS: Al Kazeem (approx.) 124, Ruler Of The World 120.
TODAY’S RACING: PERCENTAGE BET IS UPPER GROSVENOR
It’s the Warwick wheel of fortune. I want to keep on top of the game and win us more chips but the two big-field finals at Warwick today are not far short of roulette, both numerically – there are 32 horses – and in trying to pick the winner.
Not easy finding some balance to the wheel of fortune on a kinky course, with severe bends. The trick, apparently, on this turning track is to secure a stands-side berth coming down the final straight from which to forge past the leaders at the finish. At least that’s what’s needed over 1m 3f at 4.40.
4.40 Warwick (Jockey Club Grassroots Middle Distance Series Final) Last year’s winner travelled just off the pace. So did Super Say when he scored on the course in the August qualifier, his first run since a wind operation, suggesting there’s more to come.
But Super Say is up 4lb, which puts the third that day, the second-season animal Markttag, on a par with him. In fact, at this time of the year, the normal rule is: look no further than the three-year-olds.
Theodore Gericault may be their benchmark. He meets Willow Beck 10lb better for a near-seven-lengths deficit on the Newmarket July Course.
But, while Theodore looked an ungainly individual that day, and you couldn’t bet on him reversing the placings, you have the problem with Willow Beck that he’s up 11lb since then and hasn’t been able to score again.
It’s a hard race but, drawn to get the rail and be in at the finish, is Lyric Ballad, an improver until she encountered heavy ground last time, and ridden by an in-form Silvestre De Sousa. Tasty 12.0 on BETDAQ this morning. Markttag was 11.0.
5.10 Warwick (Jockey Club Grassroots Sprint Series Final) A shorter race but kinkier than ever. After going straight for three furlongs, these 6f handicappers take a sweeping left-hander and cross the round course, but then move right, over to the stands rail.
The result by stall last year was 6 beat 5, the winner, Midnight Rider, who runs again today off a 5lb higher mark, getting cover and respite on the inner until the bend and then able to cruise down the centre of the course as they moved over to the stands side.
How will he fare from gate 14? He certainly doesn’t look overburdened, massively better off with Hadaj on Newmarket July Course form.
In his favour, and also a plus for Mission Approved, Ambitious Boy and Broughtons Charm, is a light season, not a hard time like some of the others. That often counts for plenty at this late stage of the season.
Mission Approved is on the wide outside but, as a winner twice over 7f, one of them on today’s course, the extra work might be in his favour.
TODAY’S NAP After some quality at Kempton last night, the AW racing today slips back to basics. We might get an edge, adding up the percentages from Roger Varian’s stats: he has a 33% strike rate at Southwell, 28% overall for handicap debutants and 24% for first-time blinkers.
That all applies to Upper Grosvenor (5.00 Southwell), who landed the odds at Kempton, though in fact, he will wear a hood not blinkers. Hoods have been fashionable and an asset this season.
Over jumps, Charlie Longsdon is in top form and I fancy he should get a winner from either Tidal Way (5.0 on BETDAQ for the 3.20) or Hazy Tom (2.95 in the 3.50). I’ll back the first one, if lose I’ll be on Tom.
Paddy Brennan is the man to follow at Bangor but has just the one ride there today, Me And Ben (4.20) – seemingly only Great Oak to fear – but I’d go for little acorns today, if I were you. Squirrel your store for some decent racing Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5pts win TIDAL WAY (3.20 Bangor), if lose 10pts win HAZY TOM (3.50 Bangor), and 1pt win double the two.
BET 7pts win ME AND BEN and 4.5pts win (stakes saver) GREAT OAK (4.20 Bangor)
BET 2pts win MARKTTAG and 1.8pts win LYRIC BALLAD (4.40 Warwick)
BET 10pts win (nap) UPPER GROSVENOR (5.00 Southwell)
BET 4.2pts win MISSION APPROVED and 3.4pts win MIDNIGHT RIDER (5.10 Warwick)
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