Atlanta Falcons (2-1, 2-1 ATS) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-2, 1-2 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Atlanta -3 (47)
Significant Injuries
Atlanta: WR Harry Douglas (questionable– foot)
Minnesota: CB Josh Robinson (questionable– hamstring), LB Chad Greenway (out– hand), TE Kyle Rudolph (out– abdomen)
Recent Trends
Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. NFC opponents
Atlanta is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing fewer than 15 points in their previous game
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games
Minnesota is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game
The OVER is 4-1 in Atlanta’s last 5 games vs. NFC opponents
The OVER is 5-1 in Minnesota’s last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record
The UNDER is 4-0 in Minnesota’s last 4 games overall
The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Atlanta
1. The Falcons lead the NFL in both total offense and points scored, averaging 34.7 points per game. The Vikings, meanwhile, have surrendered 50 combined points in their last two games.
2. The Vikings have been terrible on offense this season; they’ve averaged just 16.7 points per game and only Oakland, Jacksonville, and Tampa Bay have gained fewer yards. Plus, they’re now without their best player– running back Adrian Peterson– their starting quarterback, and their most reliable pass-catcher (tight end Kyle Rudolph).
3. Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan is one of the best in the league at his position and his counterpart on Sunday, Minnesota’s Teddy Bridgewater, will be making his first career start. Making matters even more unbalanced, Ryan is surrounded by an elite tandem of wideouts in Julio Jones and Roddy White, while Bridgewater will be throwing the ball to unproven players and backups. This is a mismatch of epic proportions.
Three reasons to back Minnesota
1. The Vikings have played very well on defense this season, totally shutting down a pedestrian St. Louis in Week 1 and limiting the high-powered Saints offense to just 20 points in the Superdome last week. They currently rank 10th in total defense. The last time the Falcons saw a top-10 defense was back in Week 2, when they were dominated by Cincinnati.
2. Rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater looked good in his NFL debut last week and he’ll have one of the NFL’s most exciting playmakers, wideout Cordarrelle Patterson, at his disposal. They’ll be facing an Atlanta defense that has been awful in two of the team’s three games and currently ranks 27th in yards allowed.
3. Minnesota is a great situational play here: they play very well at home, covering in 4 of their last 5 home games; they’re a great bounce-back team, covering in 5 of their last 6 games following a loss, and Atlanta is overvalued after stomping an abysmal Tampa team on Thursday Night Football. If you saw the Falcons play in Week 2 you know that they’re an incomplete team that is weak on both the offensive and defensive lines.
Prediction
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