Baltimore Ravens (7-5, 6-5-1 ATS) @ Miami Dolphins (7-5, 7-5 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Miami -2.5 (45.5)
Significant Injuries
Baltimore: WR Michael Campanaro (questionable– thigh), RB Justin Forsett (questionable– knee), TE Crockett Gilmore (questionable– back), CB Tramain Jacobs (out– thigh)
Miami: TE Charles Clay (questionable– hamstring), OT Nate Garner (doubtful– illness), CB Cortland Finnegan (doubtful– ankle), LB Jonathan Freeney (out– hamstring), CB Jamar Taylor (out– shoulder)
Recent Trends
Baltimore is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams
Baltimore is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning record
Baltimore is 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. AFC opponents
Miami is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. AFC opponents
Miami is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home games
The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 4-0 in Baltimore’s last 4 road games
The OVER is 5-1 in Baltimore’s last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record
The UNDER is 6-1 in Miami’s last 7 games overall
Three reasons to back Baltimore
1. The Ravens are one of the NFL’s better all-around teams– as a matter of fact, they’re the only team in the league that currently ranks in the top-7 in both points scored and points allowed. They’re especially good against quality opposition, covering in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with winning records. The Dolphins have lost twice in their last 4 games and were nearly beaten by the lowly Jets last week, so the wrong team may be favored here.
2. The Baltimore defense has been typically stout this season and they’re particularly good against the run, surrendering fewer than 90 yards per game on the ground. That means they should match up well with the run-first Miami offense, a unit that averages just 220 pass yards per game, ranking 22nd leaguewide. Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill is a “dink and dunk” specialist who does not challenge defenses downfield. This is a great matchup for the Ravens.
3. Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco is having a decent season but it’s been Justin Forsett and the running game that have carried the Baltimore offense. The Ravens rank 5th in the league in rush yards per game and they should find plenty of success this week against a Miami defense that ranks 22nd against the run. The Dolphins surrendered a staggering 277 rushing yards in their 16-13 win over the New York Jets last week.
Three reasons to back Miami
1. The Dolphins have steadily improved over the course of the season and they’re beginning to resemble a Super Bowl contender, as their only losses over the past 7 weeks have come in road games against Denver and Detroit (combined record: 17-7) and those losses came by a combined 7 points. They should be backed enthusiastically as a short home favorite over a Baltimore team that has covered just twice in their last 11 games against AFC opponents.
2. Miami’s Ryan Tannehill has emerged as one of the league’s top young quarterbacks– he’s completing over 65% of his passes in first-year coordinator Bill Lazor’s offense and has a TD/Int ratio of better than 2:1. Tannehill has a dream matchup in this game, as the Ravens have surrendered more passing yards this season than all but one team leaguewide. Expect fireworks from the Miami offense.
3. The Miami defense ranks 6th in points allowed (19.3 ppg) and 2nd against the pass, so the Baltimore offense is going to have a difficult time moving the ball . The Ravens have scored 24 points or fewer in 4 of their 6 road games this season, losing 3 of those 4 games.
Prediction
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