New York Jets (2-10, 3-8-1 ATS) @ Minnesota Vikings (5-7, 7-5 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Minnesota -5.5 (40)
Significant Injuries
New York: TE Jace Amaro (out– concussion), DE Muhammad Wilkerson (out– toe)
Minnesota: LB Anthony Barr (doubtful– knee), CB Jabari Price (doubtful– hamstring), RB Jerick McKinnon (out– back)
Recent Trends
New York is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams
New York is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record
New York is 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 road games
Minnesota is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 14 points
The UNDER is 5-1 in New York’s last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record
The UNDER is 4-0 in New York’s last 4 games overall
The UNDER is 5-2 in Minnesota’s last 7 games overall
Three reasons to back New York
1. The Jets have had a nightmarish season but they showed in last week’s 3-point loss to Miami that they’re still playing hard for coach Rex Ryan, and this week they’re facing a losing team that’s led by a rookie quarterback. These two teams are very similar statistically (NYJ 29th total offense, 7th total defense; MIN 30th total offense, 10th total defense), so the 5.5-point number here can be attributed to the venue and bettors’ general mistrust of the Jets. While both of those things may be valid, they’re not enough to justify Minnesota being favored by nearly a touchdown, especially side the Vikings have won by more than 6 points just 3 times in their last 14 games.
2. The New York defense is one of the league’s better units and they’re especially good against the run, surrendering just 85.2 rushing yards per game. That should serve them well against a Minnesota offense that ranks 30th in pass yards per game and will be without starting tailback Jerick McKinnon this week. The Vikings offense has been horrible this season when they haven’t been able to run the ball, and they won’t be able to run it on Sunday.
3. Minnesota has an excellent secondary but their defense struggles against the run, surrendering over 123 rush yards per game. They’ll have trouble with a New York rushing attack that features three capable backs and averages 148.1 yards per game, ranking 3rd leaguewide. This is an ideal matchup for the New York offense.
Three reasons to back Minnesota
1. The Vikings are a competitive team that boasts a winning record against the spread and nearly beat the Green Bay Packers two weeks ago. They responded to that near-miss by hammering the Carolina Panthers last week, proving that, indeed, they’re a team on the rise. The Jets, on the other hand, have lost 10 of their last 11 games and are playing for a “lame duck” head coach, as Rex Ryan is sure to be fired at season’s end. Five of their last 7 losses have come by double-digits.
2. The Jets have a miserable offense that averages just 15.8 points per game and is led by a quarterback– Geno Smith– who has turned the ball over more times than any player in the NFL since the beginning of last season. The coaching staff’s trust in Smith has eroded to the point that they only allowed him to throw 13 passes in a loss to Miami last week. Smith and the New York offense have very little chance of success against the stout Minnesota defense, a unit that ranks 10th in yards allowed and has surrendered 21 points or fewer 7 times this season.
3. Rex Ryan talks a big game when it comes to his defense, but the truth is the Jets have allowed nearly 27 points per game this season, which is more than all but 6 teams leaguewide, and they’ve been especially bad away from home, surrendering 24 points or more in all 5 of their road games. The Vikings have steadily improved on offense, averaging 23.5 points per game over their last 4 contests after really struggling early in the season, so those relying on a dominant performance from the New York defense may want to hold on to their money.
Prediction
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