Carolina Panthers (3-8-1, 6-6 ATS) @ New Orleans Saints (5-7, 5-7 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: New Orleans -10 (49.5)
Significant Injuries
Carolina: TE Greg Olsen (questionable– knee), G Amini Silatolu (out– knee), RB DeAngelo Williams (out– hand)
New Orleans: None
Recent Trends
Carolina is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games in New Orleans
Carolina is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. NFC South opponents
Carolina is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games
New Orleans is 25-10 ATS in their last 35 home games
The road team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 5-0 in Carolina’s last 5 road games
The UNDER is 8-0 in Carolina’s last 8 games vs. NFC South opponents
The OVER is 4-1 in New Orleans’ last 5 home games
The OVER is 5-1 in New Orleans’ last 6 games vs. NFC opponents
Three reasons to back Carolina
1. The Saints have been overvalued at home all season and that continues this week, as they’re an incomprehensible 10-point favorite over division rival Carolina. Why is the 10-point number so troubling here? Because the Saints have lost 3 straight home games, that’s why. The Superdome mystique is long gone, but it was never there for Carolina, anyway: the Panthers have covered in 11 of their last 13 trips to the Big Easy.
2. The Panthers are just the type of team that traditionally gives New Orleans problems: a tough, physical team with a run-first offense that can both batter the vulnerable Saints defense and keep Drew Brees on the sidelines, where he’s harmless. Carolina could easily win this game outright, making the chance to back them as a 10-point underdog a no-brainer for sharp bettors.
3. New Orleans has an awful defense that ranks 31st in yards allowed and has surrendered 27 points or more in 4 consecutive games. That defense is the primary reason why they’ve lost 3 consecutive home games and 3 of 4 overall, and it’s the primary reason why they should not be trusted as a double-digit favorite this week.
Three reasons to back New Orleans
1. The Saints are better than the Panthers in every measurable way: they have a better record, they score more points, they allow fewer points, they have a far superior point differential… the list goes on if you want to get into so-called “advanced” stats, but what’s the point? These teams met a month ago in Carolina and the Saints cruised to an easy 18-point victory. There’s no reason to expect anything different this time around.
2. New Orleans ranks 2nd in total offense, 3rd in pass yards per game, and 7th in points scored (26.9 ppg). In other words, they have one of the NFL’s best offenses once again. The Panthers rank 29th in points allowed and have surrendered a staggering 158 combined points in their last 4 road games, so they seemingly have little chance of success in this matchup.
3. We know that New Orleans averages roughly 27 points per game and Carolina surrenders roughly 27 points per game, so anyone with an ounce of common sense can deduce that the Saints are going to be able to put up some points this week. That means the Carolina offense will have to be productive as well if the Panthers are to remain competitive, and based on what we’ve seen out of the Carolina offense lately “productivity” seems unlikely. The Panthers average just 19 points per game and have scored 21 points or fewer in 6 consecutive games. They simply won’t be able to keep up with the high-flying Saints.
Prediction
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