Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-10, 5-7 ATS) @ Detroit Lions (8-4, 6-6 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Detroit -10 (41.5)
Significant Injuries
Tampa Bay: OT Anthony Collins (questionable– elbow), TE Brandon Myers (questionable– calf), RB Bobby Rainey (questionable– calf), TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (questionable– back), LB Lavonte David (questionable– hamstring), LB Mason Foster (questionable– Achilles)
Detroit: DT Nick Fairley (out– knee)
Recent Trends
Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games
Tampa Bay is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. NFC opponents
Detroit is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these 2 teams
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win
Detroit is 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 14 points
The UNDER is 5-0 in Tampa Bay’s last 6 games following a loss
The UNDER is 6-0 in Tampa Bay’s last 6 games overall
The OVER is 7-1 in Detroit’s last 8 games following a win of more than 14 points
The UNDER is 9-2 in Detroit’s last 11 games overall
Three reasons to back Tampa Bay
1. The Bucs have played very well on the road lately, covering in 4 of their last 5 opportunities. They’ve only been an underdog of more than 7.5 points once all season, and in that game they took New Orleans to overtime before losing by six. They simply have no business being a double-digit ‘dog here, especially when you consider that the Lions have lost 2 of their past 3 games.
2. The re-insertion of veteran quarterback Josh McCown into the starting lineup has given the Tampa offense a much-needed boost, as McCown has passed for 288 yards or more in 3 of his past 4 games. The Detroit defense is excellent up front but vulnerable in the secondary, so McCown will have an opportunity to make some plays downfield. Bucs receivers Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans are both oversize athletic freaks who can physically dominate opposing defensive backs.
3. The Tampa defense has improved tremendously since the beginning of the season and has surrendered 22 points or fewer in 5 of the team’s past 6 games. The Detroit offense, meanwhile, has struggled all season and is averaging just 19.2 points per game. The Lions won’t be able to score enough in this game to cover the 10-point number.
Three reasons to back Detroit
1. The Lions are an 8-4 team with Super Bowl aspirations, while Tampa Bay has won just twice all season. The Bucs have lost 7 of their past 8 games, so it’s not like they’re improving, and seven of their losses have come by 6 points or more. Detroit is 5-1 at home this year and badly needs a win to maintain position in the crowded NFC playoff race, so this one could get ugly. Take some good advice: back the better team.
2. Detroit leads the NFL in both points allowed (17.2 ppg) and rushing defense (65.9 ypg allowed), and the Tampa offense is a bumbling unit that averages just 18.3 points per game and has only produced more than 17 points once since Week 5 (we are now in Week 14…). Tampa quarterback Josh McCown has been unable to protect the ball, throwing more interceptions than touchdown passes, so the Detroit defense may not just stop the Bucs, they may outscore them.
3. The Detroit offense finally came alive last week, as Matt Stafford threw for 390 yards and the team rolled up 34 points in a blowout win over Chicago. They should be able to build on that success this week against a Tampa defense that ranks 21st against the pass and is surrendering 26.2 points per game.
Prediction
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