Indianapolis Colts (8-4, 9-3 ATS) @ Cleveland Browns (7-5, 6-4-2 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Indianapolis -3.5 (50)
Significant Injuries
Indianapolis: G Hugh Thornton (questionable– knee), CB Vontae Davis (questionable– concussion), RB Ahmad Bradshaw (out– ankle)
Cleveland: RB Isaiah Crowell (questionable– hip), WR Marlon Moore (questionable– hamstring), TE Jordan Cameron (questionable– concussion), LB Karlos Dansby (questionable– knee), TE Gary Barnidge (doubtful– ribs), S Tashaun Gipson (out– knee)
Recent Trends
Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games
Indianapolis is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games vs. AFC opponents
Cleveland is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss
Cleveland is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record
The road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 10-1 in Indianapolis’ last 11 road games
The OVER is 11-3 in Indianapolis’ last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record
The UNDER is 4-0 in Cleveland’s last 4 home games
The UNDER is 7-1 in Cleveland’s last 8 games overall
Three reasons to back Indianapolis
1. Nobody but New England has beaten the Colts since October, and the Browns certainly aren’t as good as the Patriots. Indy has been great on the road this season, covering in 4 of their 5 opportunities, and they’re 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games against AFC teams. They should be backed enthusiastically against a Cleveland team that has been struggling in recent weeks, losing to Houston and Buffalo and squeaking by Atlanta in their last 3 games.
2. Without question, the Colts have the NFL’s best offense. They lead the league in total yards per game (438.2), pass yards per game (326.2), and points per game (31.8). They won’t have any trouble lighting up the scoreboard on a Cleveland defense that ranks 18th in yards allowed and a dreadful 28th against the run.
3. The Browns have a pedestrian offense that ranks 22nd in points scored and has produced 26 points or fewer in 7 consecutive games. And they seem to be regressing, as two of their three lowest outputs this season have come in the last 3 weeks (7 pts vs HOU in Wk 11, 10 pts vs BUF in Wk 13). How can they possibly keep up with the high-flying Colts, a team that’s scored 20 points or more in every game this season?
Three reasons to back Cleveland
1. The Browns have been undervalued all season and it continues this week, as they’re a 3.5-point home ‘dog despite their documented success when facing good teams at home. They’ve now covered in 4 consecutive home games against teams with winning records, blowing out Pittsburgh 31-10 the last time they faced such a team. The Colts lost to that same Steelers team by 18 points a few weeks ago.
2. The Colts have a porous defense that ranks 22nd in yards allowed and has surrendered 29.4 points per game over their past 5 contests. The Cleveland offense, meanwhile, is better than its been all season now that Pro Bowl receiver Josh Gordon, the Browns’ best offensive player, is back in the lineup.
3. The Cleveland defense has steadily improved and now ranks 9th in points allowed, having surrendered 26 points or fewer in 8 consecutive games. Their strength is in the secondary, where they’re surrendering just 228.3 pass yards per game, and that should work out nicely against the pass-first Indianapolis offense. The Colts have struggled to run the ball all season and their best tailback, Ahmad Bradshaw, is out indefinitely with an ankle injury.
Prediction
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