Tommy Haas last week became this column’s fifth winning selection of the season and at 6/1, the second biggest of the season. A quite remarkable 2013 continued in Munich as Haas secured his 14th ATP World Tour trophy, resulting in a rise to World No. 13 in the process. A final in San Jose, a defeat of Novak Djokovic in Miami and now this success in Germany further highlights the sort of year Haas is enjoying. Elsewhere in Portugal, it wasn’t to be a double success for the column as David Ferrer was comprehensively beaten by Swiss Stanislas Wawrinka in straight sets. Clearly thriving under new coach Magnus Norman, Wawrinka negotiated his way through the Oeiras draw and saw off Ferrer in a final lasting just 64 minutes. I think it’s fair to say Ferrer doesn’t appear to be as dominant a player on these ATP 250 clay events as he was in 2012. Nevertheless, making a final on the ATP World Tour is an achievement in itself and should give Ferrer a welcome confidence boost. After all, he only accepted a late wildcard into the event after an early loss in Barcelona to Dmitry Tursunov.
ATP Madrid
Over the next fortnight, we have two ATP 1000 events in Madrid and Rome, with the Spanish capital being the first of the two to take place. 2012 saw a switch to the controversial blue clay, much to the annoyance of many tour players. Not so for Roger Federer or indeed this column as Federer at 10/1 adapted best to the conditions to secure the title. An unsurprising decision was taken to revert back to the traditional red clay for 2013 where Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic both start at very short prices for the event. Given Djokovic’s defeat of Nadal in the Spaniard’s home away from home of Monte Carlo, Nadal’s price is likely to be odds against when otherwise, it would’ve been odds on and I think for that reason, he’s worth siding with this week. A flawless performance from Djokovic four weeks ago, saw Nadal defeated by the Serbian and it would take another monumental effort from Djokovic to make it a double. He’s probably the only player on tour that can beat Nadal on this surface at these types of events but I just feel Nadal can gain some revenge this week.
Draw-wise, I think Nadal could make the most of what looks to be nice enough draw and with outstanding head-to-head records over compatriots David Ferrer and Nicolas Almagro (both of whom Nadal could face), I’d be happy enough to side with him. Djokovic on the other hand has some potentially tricky-looking encounters against the likes of Grigor Dimitrov, Stanislas Wawrinka, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and either Andy Murray or Tomas Berdych before any talk of a showdown with Rafael Nadal can commence. I wouldn’t put it past the Serbian to make a mockery of the draw he’s been handed but on the face of it, it looks far from straightforward.
It’s anything but a two-man tournament however. Despite defending champions not having a great record at the event (defending champions are 0-11 since inception in 2002), Roger Federer should run his race. Should he make it to the last four, I’d expect Nadal to have the measure of him, particularly on this surface. On the other side of the draw, Tomas Berdych and Andy Murray have every chance of a last four meeting with Djokovic but similar to Nadal, I think both would struggle.
For me, Djokovic and Nadal look a cut above the field at present and form should dictate that Sunday’s final could be a repeat of Monte Carlo and I fancy Nadal to turn the tables on his rival come next weekend.
Selection: Rafael Nadal
Follow Chris on Twitter @cdquinn86
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