HOKE, FOLKS! FOUR WINNING NAPS OUT OF FIVE: That’s what it’s all about! Daqman shook the layers when his hokey-cokey nap danced in at Ludlow yesterday, his fourth success from five best bets since Sunday.
WON 10-11 VERDANA BLUE (supernap Sunday)
WON 8-13 MANUELA DE VEGA(supernap Monday)
2ND 11-10 BEAU DE BRIZAIS (supernap Tuesday)
WON 4-6 RAINBOW HEART (supernap Wednesday)
WON 7-4 HOKE COLBURN (nap, Thursday)
DAQMAN FINDS GAMBLE AMONG FOUR MEETINGS: We will know more in the morning at Moonee Valley about 28-wins-in-a-row mare Winx. What is her place in the world? Meanwhile, Daqman has his first assignment at Cheltenham, a nap at Doncaster and a gamble at Newbury.
WINX ‘BATL’ FOR WORLD STATUS
HOT CASH FOR COMMISSIONER
ALI COULD BE KNOCKOUT AT 20.0
WINDS SET FOR REVENGE BLOW
WINX ‘BATL’ FOR WORLD STATUS
Wonder mare? I wonder. Yes, she’s run 28 races unbeaten and bids for a record fourth straight Ladbrokes Cox Plate at Moonee Valley tomorrow morning. But that’s in Australia against Australian horses.
She’s swerved Royal Ascot and all other opportunities to confirm world status and, though I often join in the delight of seeing an extraordinary animal, I am always wary of the weakness before I invest the mortgage.
It was before he was retired, not afterwards, that i complained we had not seen Frankel race beyond 10-or-so furlongs, when we in England and Ireland have always seen the Derby mile-and-a-half as the true crown for a king.
Frankel also had the Winx factor in that he raced against the same old, same old horses, consecutively outrunning – in one sequence of five starts – Excelebration, Excelebration, Excelebration, Farrh and Farrh, in that order!
Similarly, Hartnell (four times; I won’t repeat them all), Happy Clapper (three) and Le Romain (two) all have seconditis behind Winx.
Much as I love a champion, I am reminded of two rules given to me by my mentors, pro punter Murray Dwyer, who is Australian, and equine scientist Richard L Wadey, who said:
1: A horse will win all the time, if he has nothing else to beat, though still a great horse on merit within that limitation. If he’s only a good horse, not a great one, he’ll beat himself one day, lacking sparkle, being off colour or jaded; or simply unable to cope with different conditions. So we are really praising constitution in the sequence horse.
2: Australian sprinters will always beat yours. But you will come here and win at middle distance, and take our Melbourne Cup, because that’s your kind of horse.
Tomorrow morning, at long last, we – both England and Ireland – take on Winx, not with our best but with, we hope, enough clout to bring some perspective to the Winx mythology.
Benbatl (Saeed Bin Suroor) has won at Royal Ascot, Meydan and Munich and, in his prep for the big time Down Under, has already captured the Group-1 Ladbrokes Stakes at Caulfield. The third horse, Humidor, had been fourth to Winx in April, and the fifth, D’Argento, had been third to Winx in August.
Rostropovich (Aidan O’Brien) Futurity winner as a two-year-old and second in both the Ascot Derby (the King Edward V11 Stakes at the royal meeting) and in the Irish Derby, when the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas winner was third.
Benbatl is officially 122 rated but has to give 7lb to the three-year-old Rostropovich (rated 113). We’ll rate Winx after the race (which is where I came in).
HOT CASH FOR COMMISSIONER
1.10 Newbury Stalls 1 to 5 won this seven seasons running until a bit of a mudbath last year. The forecast morning showers are unlikely to make it that bad (are they?)
The low draw was also dominant in the September race over this course and distance on similar good to soft, when Phosphor was second.
The result by stall was 2-11-1-3, with Phosphor the one on the wrong side in gate 11. Today he is in stall 3 and has Frankie Dettori’s help, with most of his nearest market rivals drawn high: 3.55 taken in the BETDAQ orange.
1.40 Newbury Paul Cole won a Listed at Deauville on Wednesday with Duke Of Hazzard, whose work companion, High Commissioner, looks just as useful at home, according to my man in the long grass, who saw them tested alongsides: I got 8.0 early mouse but have to record 5.3 best BETDAQ offers at the time of writing.
ALI COULD BE KNOCKOUT AT 20.0
2.50 Newbury It’s 12 days (and only one other runner) since Tom Tate sprang a surprise in a local York handicap with a 12-1 shot, which he is wont to do at this time of year.
Now here’s Tom travelling down to Newbury with the well-drawn Empress Ali, who is within a couple of pounds of previous wins at this level or higher at Nottingham and Pontefract on today’s ground: 20.0 BETDAQ offers.
Until Chester on the last day (a bad run there from a high draw can always be forgiven), she has been running well enough in her three races earlier this year, all higher class than today’s, yet has dropped down the weights.
3.10 Cheltenham Just one winner over the age of six, and only two in the decade carrying more than 10st 13lb.
Within those parameters we have two who ‘could be anything’: First Assignment ((9.8 BETDAQ) and Christmas In April (18.5), while Water Sprite (54.0) – just outside – seems not to be fancied and the favourite Court Minstrel looks vulnerable as an 11-year-old.
WINDS SET FOR REVENGE BLOW
4.10 Doncaster Eight out of 10 to three-year-olds, which suggests that we should concentrate on the front two in the market.
John Gosden, twice the winning trainer in the last six seasons, saddles Frankel’s son Surya, who holds a Haydock verdict over Winds Of Fire.
However, Winds Of Fire is 7lb better off for a length and a half, and Surya fell in a heap at York (irregular heartbeat), so that this is a look-see mission regarding his health.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.10 Newbury (win 20)
BET 7.75pts win PHOSPHOR
1.40 Newbury (win 30)
BET 7pts win HIGH COMMISSIONER
2.50 Newbury (win 30)
BET 1.5pts win and place EMPRESS ALI
3.10 Cheltenham (win 30)
BET 3.5pts win FIRST ASSIGNMENT
BET 1.75pts win and place CHRISTMAS IN APRIL
4.10 Doncaster (win 20)
BET 10pts win (nap) WINDS OF FIRE
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