CHELTENHAM GOLD-CUP-DAY FILE: Here’s Daqman’s final dossier of facts and stats for next week’s Cheltenham meeting, which throws up long sequences of losing favourites, hence Friday is Festival Lays Day.
23.0 OUTSIDER! Daqman’s nap for today was better than 6-1 with BETDAQ layers at Exeter this morning and he has a 23.0 outsider at the same meeting.
FESTIVAL ‘LAYS DAY’ FRIDAY
LAYS LOGIC! Cheltenham next Friday is lays day; nice work if you have a BETDAQ account and some short prices. Here is your starter: favourites have drawn a blank in the 3.20 (for 11 consecutive years) and the 5.20 (12 years). All four favourites for the new Mares Chase (2.40) have been beaten by other short-priced runners. Now read on:
⭕ 1.20 Cheltenham, Friday March 15 (Triumph Hurdle) Four-year-olds only. Favourites five out of 10, but outsiders at 9-1, 12-1 and 20-1 in the last seven years
Winners ratings: 155, 142, 155, 140, 141 notional, 120 notional, 147, 146, 142, 139. Trainers: Willie Mullins is on a four-timer; currently four out of five. Nicky Henderson next best (3).
⭕ 2.00 Cheltenham (County Hurdle) Favourites: only two out of 10
Age: 5 and 6 (11/15). Weight: no more than 11st 1lb (11/14). Ratings: 138, 138, 158, 139, 146, 137, 129, 141, 134, 138. Trainers: Dan Skelton (4/9) includes 33-1 twice; Willie Mullins (5/10), two of them favourite but includes 20-1 and 25-1.
⭕ 2.40 Cheltenham (Mares’ Chase) Established 2021, has produced Willie Mullins’ strange feat of two winners but four beaten favourites four years running. Ratings 150, 155, 151, 147.
LAYS LOGIC: None of the four winners has been bigger than 3-1 SP but none has been favourite; all beaten at 2-1, 6-5, 13-8 and 15-8 and all trained Willie Mullins! The 2021 beaten favourite won the race the following year.
⭕ 3.20 Cheltenham (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle) No winning favourite in 11 years, with 10 winners double-figure SPs of 11-1, 14-1 (twice), 16-1 (twice), 18-1 (twice), 33-1 (three times) and 50-1.
Age 6 and 7 (13 out of 15). Some 12 out of 17 had won at around 3m.
LAYS LOGIC: Favourites finished: 7-2 fav pulled up (2016), 9-4 fav 5th, 11-4 fav 4th; 4-1 fav 2nd; 4-1 fav 4th; 7-2 fav 4th; 9-4 fav pulled up; 9-4 fav ran out and 2-1 fav pulled up (2024)
⭕ 4.00 Cheltenham (Gold Cup) Favourites currently three in a row; five have won in the last nine years and 11/13 have been 9-1 or shorter at SP.
Nine of the last 10 winners had won two of their last three races, still standing. Age, 7, 8 and 9 (14/15).
Ratings: 152, 166, 175, 167, 166, 164, 175, 164, 174, 173, 179.
Trainers in the decade: Willie Mullins (4), Henry de Bromhead (2), Nicky Henderson (2), Gordon Elliott (1), Jessica Harrington (1)
The last 18 winners had already won Graded races (Grade-1 in 14 years); 18 out of 18 had raced at Cheltenham before; 16 out of 17 had won at 3m or further, and 18 out of 18 had won at least two chases.
⭕ 4.40 Cheltenham (Challenge Cup open hunters’ chase) Three favourites have won in the last nine seasons but others include 66-1 (twice) and 25-1. Nine winners aged 10 or 11 until an 8yo last year.
Winning trainers: Paul Nicholls (2), Enda Bolger (2). Won over at least 3m (12/14).
⭕ 5.20 Cheltenham (Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle) Favourites: all beaten in the last 12 years. Ages: 5 and 6 (13 out of 15). Weight: 11st 3lb and above (11/12)
Ratings: 135, 139, 138, 144, 145, 145, 142, 137, 138, 140. Trainers: W Mullins (5), Gordon Elliott (3), P. Nicholls (2), Joseph O’Brien (2).
LAYS LOGIC: Favourites in last nine seasons since 2016 finished: 9-4 fav 7th (2016), 9-2 fav 8th; 13-2 fav 12th; 7-2 fav 2nd; 4-1 fav 12th; 4-1 fav 10th; 7-2 fav brought down; 5-1 jt favs 5th and 15th; 2nd 100-30.
RIGHT! IMAGINARIUM’S TURN
⭕ 3.10 Exeter today He won for Ger Lyons; he won for Lucinda Russell; but, even so, it’s his most recent winning trainer, Olly Murphy, who claims to have found the answer to Imaginarium: he must go right-handed.
Murphy’s law is certainly borne out by the six-year-old’s four runs since May, 2024: WON RH; lost LH; lost LH; WON RH. BETDAQ 7.3 was value this morning.
Though I can’t see Aintree suiting yesterday’s 6-1 on winner, Regent’s Stroll, Paul Nicholls cleaned up on the day at Wincanton and he could have another double step at Exeter today, with Paso Doble, back at his winning trip but he was too easy to back at 12.0 offers on Betdaq Betting Exchange.
King Of The Lake is running because his conditional-jockeys’ race win a week ago means that he is saddled with only an 11lb portion of his 22lb rise for back-to-back wins, but the trip and lack of a break are question-marks over a hat-trick mission in a big hurry.
His double was over at least half a mile more and he hasn’t raced at the minimum since his novice days of two years ago. Drying ground doesn’t help a stayer.
T0 BE OR NOT TO BE AT 23.0
⭕ 4.20 Exeter Chad Bament, who rides King Of The Lake, is certainly in demand for his 7lb claim; another favourite, Bampton Star, relies on him in this 3m chase.
Jeremy Scott’s Kayf Tara gelding is a star at Exeter but his double here a year ago, which included this race, was on soft and heavy. Beaten a total of 29 lengths in two January efforts and we don’t know he can act on today’s good ground.
Evan Williams is in fine form, with four winners and four seconds in seven days at the races, and To Be Sure is no hopeless outsider, though 23.0 BETDAQ offers this morning (5.1 a place).
Exeter scorer over hurdles and chase winner at Ffos Las, both on good ground, To Be Sure is now so far down the handicap that Shot Boii, who once beat him three lengths or so, is now 36lb worse off.
⭕ 5.22 Exeter All Inn Hand is a Bowen family affair, a stayer in waiting finally being given her chance over a trip at around 8-1.
DAQMAN’S BETS on Betdaq Betting Exchange
★ 3.10 Exeter (win 30, nap)
BET 5pts win IMAGINARIUM
4.20 Exeter (win 22, place win 4)
BET 1pt win and place TO BE SURE
5.22 Exeter (win 20)
BET 2.5pts win ALL INN HAND
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