BANKER AS BIG AS 3.3 ON BETDAQ: Though it was a losing day yesterday with two bankers pipped into second, Wild Irish Rose (WON 7-4) and Firefright (WON 5-4) added to Daqman’s four winners on Wednesday. He’s hoping for three more today from six races, including a 3.3 banker!
LOOK FOR MORE SATURDAY VALUE: No mercy! Daqman goes back onto the value attack tomorrow against Pricewise, whom he leads 53-9, some 234 points ahead of him to single-unit stakes. There are NINE Saturday meetings in England and Ireland.
START WITH A PUNTER’S FRIEND
1.40 Newbury Dubhe is a white dwarf star in Ursa Major. He is also a bay colt, appropriately named, by Dubawi out of Great Heavens. Connections, having a fine season with their two-year-olds, ‘expect’ this one today.
Godolphins are often easy to back (4.2 in the BETDAQ orange early mouse) because betting is not part of their culture.
1.50 Haydock His career blighted by setbacks, African Friend finally came good on the last day and the forecast rain should ease him into the winner’s enclosure again.
A ‘hidden horse’, much better than the bare form: 3.3 on BETDAQ as I write. Banker material as a standout in this modest field, a couple of grades, maybe more, below his level.
3.50 Newbury (Rose Bowl) Another Batt, Natural, Madeline and Simmy’s Copshop all aimed too high at Royal Ascot.
Another Batt has won either side of his effort in the Windsor Castle (Simmy’s Copshop four places behind), both on softish ground. Madeline improved to make fifth when Natural was only 14th in the Albany. Sixth and seventh have both won Group races since.
The stats are against her – fillies don’t win this race (0-10 in the decade) – and the ground is a worry, so I won’t be bringing the wheelbarrow instead of the wallet to this race, though odds against (2.46) in a 106% overround had the orange glowing this morning. I saved on Another Batt at 7.2.
5.15 Nottingham Malton-based Declan Carroll is one of the top two trainers at Colwick Park, percentage wise. Even more impressive is his £114 profit there to a level stake. It means he gets big-odds winners.
Shearian, a hat-trick scorer on AW in the winter, came back to form on turf, runner-up at Leicester, a fortnight ago and is Declan’s kind of price at 12.0 on BETDAQ.
6.40 Newmarket My man in the long grass rates 6.2 Time’s Arrow a value bet at 6.2 after excellent homework. Cast-iron for a place under Ryan Moore.
HOOF IT HUGE AT BETDAQ 22.0
7.20 Hamilton (Scottish Stewards Cup) Second-season animals won only three out of seven races against older horses yesterday, the day I took up their cause! Typical.
But here I go again, relying on the stats. Though heavy ground in 2012 defined a different result, since then this Stewards Cup has seemingly had a massive stalls bias.
The 1-2-3 results by draw in this race in those four seasons since have been: 11-14-15, 15-12-13, 11-15-13, 14-13-4.
Red Pike (in 10), Flying Pursuit (11), Naggers (12), King Robert (123), Hoof It (14) and Muntadab (15) seem to have the race to themselves, in an advantage seemingly so unfair that the Killarney stewards would propbably void the race if, indeed, double-figure stalls prevail.
Hoof It was second last year in the very same stall 14 but has 5lb more and needs all of Nathan Evans 3lb claim.
But Nathan and Hoof it have been in the frame five times in a row, two of them past the post first, three of them with cut in the ground, and this morning’s 22.0 the win and 6.2 the place looked excellent value.
Muntadab had a good run of seconds in the Spring. A first-time visor failed to get him involved in the Wokingham and this is now swapped for cheekpieces. Frame chance again.
The same swap, cheekpieces for visor, landed Flying Pursuit in the winner’s enclosure on the last day but he needs more in this better class race.
Red Pike, who hasn’t won in nearly two years, has gradually edged down the handicap but doesn’t fill you with confidence. King Robert is best on AW.
Naggers (BETDAQ 3.8) is 13lb higher than when scoring at Thirsk . A cracking second in a big-field sprint at Epsom in June didn’t help his mark but he and Hoof It stand out from Mundatab in third.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each one staked to win 20 points)
BET 6.25pts win DUBHE (1.40 Newbury)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) AFRICAN FRIEND (1.50 Haydock)
BET 13pts win MADELINE and 2pts win (stakes saver) ANOTHER BATT (3.50 Newbury)
BET 1.75pts win and place SHEARIAN (5.15 Nottingham)
BET 3.75pts win and place TIME’S ARROW (6.40 Newmarket)
BET 7pts win NAGGERS, and 1pt win and place HOOF IT (7.20 Hamilton)
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