JUMPING BACK WITH A NATIONAL: Kempton jumps card and the North Wales National meeting at Bangor survived inspections this morning but wintry conditions at Newbury, starting with rain this afternoon, will prompt a stewards’ check ahead of Saturday’s key card for Cheltenham contenders.
NEEDS FURTHER TRANSPARENTLY: Daqman’s nap at 5-6 on BETDAQ (Transparent WON 4-11) took his time landing the odds, though stepped up in distance, and needs an even longer trip.
STORM WARNING AT BANGOR
⭕ 2.12 Bangor (North Wales National, 3m 5f+) No winning favourites in its seven-year history but no outsiders (bigger than 10-1) either. If the winner falls into that group today, punters will go home happy.
Henry Daly won it with an improver (Bretney 2023) and Rockinastorm fits that bill again; only once out of the frame and a steady rise – now 19lb higher – over 14 months (five times a winner).
Shadowing Rockinastorm in the form-book is Duke Of Deception, 5lb better off for less than two lengths when they met at Wetherby in December.
Second in today’s National a year ago on heavy (Haute Estime third), the Duke was runner-up last Spring to none other than Bretney in the Highland National at Perth.
Though he was a drifter with bookmakers, he was firm in BETDAQ offers this morning, despite strong support for Caeruleum to complete his hat-trick.
The handicapper has doled him out an 18lb ratings rise as punishment for an easy class-5 double at Wincanton and Taunton. This is tougher, a class higher, and it’s further.
Poppa Poutine was a very promising young stayer, fourth in the 2022 Highland National (off 131) and beaten a head over a trip at Haydock.
He has slipped a stone down the handicap, despite winning the Silver Buck at Wincanton in December.
Well Dick is lightly raced for his age. Beat our yardstick Bretney (3m 5f) at Warwick last Spring for Charlie Longsdon and came back to form the last day at Exeter, switched to Emma Lavelle. Form figures of PP1PP1 suggest he is delicate.
Soft-heavy suits the consistent Rouge de L’Quest, third in a marathon at Exeter in December, and now visored first time today.
Visored, too, is The Big Breakaway. He has crashed two stone down the handicap, since second in the 2022 Welsh Grand National but is still 12st topweight (claimed off) today.
Fern Hill showed signs of a return to form upped to 3m 5f the last day, 20lb lower than at this time last year.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 5 Caeruleum, 7.4 Rockinastorm, 9.7 Duke of Deception, 9.9 Well Dick, 10 Rouge De L’Quest, 25 Poppa Poutine. Offers noted at 10.30 a.m
FLEGMATIK LOVES KEMPTON
⭕ 3.25 Kempton Flegmatik, a winner over this CD three years ago as now, beat the Autumn Gold Cup winner, Chianti Classico, again at Kempton, last year at this time.
In between those races have been 18 defeats, though two other Kempton starts last Spring – including a Grade 3 – had decent outcomes.
Crebilly needs it softer and Issar d’Airy, looking useful at Ascot and Cheltenham, has a poor Kempton chase record (0-2).
El Rio shouldn’t be overlooked, back from a serious illness to score twice before third here, all in an autumn spell which took him 12lb up the ladder of fortune.
CRACKING SOUTHWELL BET
⭕ 4.10 Southwell Cracking Gold was not disgraced in the Britannia at Royal Ascot and has been gelded since running prominently on the July Course at Newmarket in August. BETDAQ 4.8 taken.
Nikovo’s fifth place (had to wait for room) at Newcastle in a class 2 three weeks back was probably better form than his class-4 strike on the same track in December, all costing only a 4lb rise. BETDAQ 6.8 taken.
DAQMAN’S BETS on Betdaq Betting Exchange
2.12 Bangor (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 7.75pts win ROCKINASTORM
BET 5pts win ROUGE DE L’QUEST
★ 3.25 Kempton (win 12, nap)
BET 4pts win FLEGMATIK
4.10 Southwell (each to win 15)
BET 4pts win CRACKING GOLD
BET 2.5pts win NIKOVO
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