NOW IT’S NINE WINS IN TWO DAYS: Daqman has landed nine wins in two days, following his five out of five on Wednesday with four more yesterday, including a 7-1 winner and 25-1 third. There was no score in the challenge with Pricewise. Daqman leads 8-2, with clashes between them in the 2.50, 4.05 and 4.40 Aintree today.
7-1 HIT SO PROFITS TOP 60 POINTS: Aintree Day One started badly with Daqman’s bankers down but he hit four winning bets to end the day 26.75 in profit, the 34 points on Wednesday taking him over the 60 mark in two days. Returns yesterday came from:
WON 7-4 SILVINIACO CONTI
WON 3-1 JEZKI
WON 7-1 TAGLIETELLE
3RD 25-1 MASTER MALT
39.0 BETDAQ VALUE IN THE TOPHAM: Daqman finds Aintree value at 12.0 and 13.0 in the opener; 11.0 and a huge 39.0 in the Topham; and 15.5 in the Sefton Novices Hurdle. All on BETDAQ of course.
GLINGERBURN AND DARIUS IN DOUBLE WHAMMY
1.40 Aintree All bar one winner in the decade has been a double-figure SP, from 10-1 to 50-1. Just to make it harder for you: of the last three winners, one won at the Cheltenham Festival, one was down the field there and the other one swerved the meeting altogether! Thanks for that.
Six-year-olds are seven out of 10, and very-lightly-raced Some Buckle was a good sixth in the Imperial Cup – a race of winners – thanks to a tongue-tie, which stays on here. He was narrowly beaten earlier by Glingerburn, who is one of my big hopes today.
Nexius was hit a stone by the handicapper for a smooth success at Haydock but cannot be discounted, with Paul Townend booked, as that was his first real try at being upwardly mobile after suffering from stomach ulcers. Enchanted Garden and Theinval have also been thumped with a severe penalty.
A fast-run race should help Daneking gain some prizemoney for Mullins-Walsh after the shocking fall of their only runner at the meeting so far, Arctic Fire yesterday.
Eye-catchers at Cheltenham were Vulcanite – first run after seven months’ absence – and 320,000-guineas-buy The Saint James, another with a big handicap in him, while his very first handicap today could be the making of Knight’s Parade.
There are others with chances but the dark horses at the trip who are down the handicap and with trainers in form are Some Buckle (12.0 in the BETDAQ orange) and Knight’s Parade (13.0).
2.15 Aintree Nicky Henderson goes for a four-timer after three winning favourites in a row in this, the last one Josses Hill. Let’s hope he can find the problem with that horse, who jumped to the right all the way round yesterday.
One of my ‘finds’ of the season has been Glingerburn and, just as I begged Gordon Elliott to swerve the National with Cause Of Causes (he hasn’t), I expressed the hope that Nicky Richards would bypass Cheltenham with Glingerburn and wait for this race today (he has).
We’re not talking overfaced youngster this time; we’re talking about a seven-year-old hurdler who has needed step by step steering to the top after injury and, sure enough he’s up 16lb this year off an impressive learning curve.
Rated 10lb clear of this field, he is a fast and accurate hurdler, only a year and 6lb behind My Tent Or Yours when that one took this in 2013, so there is still time for his climb to fame to represent a training masterclass by Nicky Richards, who has had a fine season with a limited class of animal.
Of course, N Henderson (Cardinal Walter) and P Nicholls (Vago Collonges, hood left off) are not going to let ‘Glinger’ burn them! But both their runners need considerable improvement here.
And another northern horse may be Glingerburn’s biggest rival: Cyrus Darius is a lovely big sort who has absolutely trotted up the last twice.
Good ground will help the Suffolk horse Commissioned to punch his weight. He was fourth in the Anniversary Hurdle here at last year’s meeting (Clarcam second) and goes well fresh.
I go for Glingerburn, who will probably ease from the morning prices because of the presence of top yards in the race. Cyrus Darius (11.0 offers on BETDAQ this morning) and Vago Collonges (7.4) travel well in their races, which is a big asset at Aintree.
Once again, you could back three or four here and still not have the winner. I’ll stick with the northern pair, and have a place tilt as well as a banker. Double whammy.
CHAMPAGNE FOR RUBY IN THE MELLING CHASE
2.50 Aintree (Mildmay Chase) Always well supported as a top test of the novice, won by Big Buck’s, Silviniaco Conti, Holywell and Dynaste in recent years.
Two of those were trained by Paul Nicholls but his pair in this, Saphir Du Rheu and Irish Saint, are both wobbly on the jumping front, in Saphir’s case even over smaller obstacles (errors probably cost him the World Hurdle).
Their jumping will be put to a severe test here by the front-runner Carraig Mor, who should really enjoy this track, and is 14.0 on BETDAQ as I write.
Believe it or not, he was tearing away, clear of Coneygree, the runaway Gold Cup winner, when he unseated at Kempton over Christmas.
Another unexposed emergent novice is 10.0 offer Ainsi Fideles, and these two at double-figure prices in the orange should give me thrills (maybe spills!)
Irish Cavalier was impressive at the Cheltenham Festival but, on a line through Generous Ransom, did not improve a single pound from a January race on the course.
This is a small field to be doing a place lay Irish Cavalier (at around 3.0 in the green) but there are four in front of him in the ratings plus my Carraig Mor and, as I say, he may have been standing still to win at Cheltenham.
3.25 Aintree (Melling Chase) Another huge contest, won recently by superstars like Monet’s Garden, Voy Por Ustedes, Albertas Run, Master Minded and Sprinter Sacre.
I can’t have the old boys Al Ferof and Wishfull Thinking, the rank outsider Croco Bay and the two-milers Simply Ned and Sire De Grugy or the handicapper Johns Spirit.
That leaves me four horses separated by a mere 4lb in the ratings, with Don Cossack clear of the three others on 166, which would have won him only two of the last seven Mellings.
Lack of stamina beat Champagne Fever in the King George, with the form of that race boosted by Silviniaco Conti yesterday. Cue Card isn’t the horse he was and you can never be sure that Balder Succes can get it together.
I’ll hope for champagne for the Mullins-Walsh team but with no passion, no fever in my selection. It’s too wide open. A great contest. But so, too, the Topham.
FAIRY FLUTTER AT 39.0 FOR WIDE-OPEN TOPHAM
4.05 Aintree (Topham Chase) They come back and win this time and again. Or, at least, Always Waining did! Three times in a row.
But the last two winners are not here. Both went on to better things: Triolo d’Alene (won the Hennessy) and Ma Filleule (Grade 1 placer).
But last year’s second and third, Bennys Mist (needs it soft) and Eastlake (good second at Cheltenham), are back, close together now on the ratings, Eastlake 3lb better for a length.
Their experience of these Grand National fences could be of vital importance, though we saw yesterday the last two winners of the Fox Hunters’ both come down early on!
Eight winners in the decade have come from the bottom half of the handicap in this. And, despite decent ground, 13 of the 29 in the Fox Hunters failed to finish.
On all known form outside Aintree, Standing Ovation, blinkered first time, seems sure to be in the front rank off his featherweight. But he raced in the rear in this a year ago and unseated rider, never in the hunt.
Fairy Rath is a confirmed front-runner and Nick Gifford has always thought that this big, burly beast would like the Grand National fences. He had him in the Grand Sefton last year but he wasn’t quite right coming up to the race. He’s sneaked in a hurdles prep for this one.
Grand Sefton winner, Poole Master, and two-miler Sew On Target should also be seen early – bear in mind for a trade – while Rajdhani Express ran well at Cheltenham and is capable of placing, despite is weight.
Bless The Wings, formerly with Alan King, has had a revival under Gordon Elliott, put up to 3m and further. If he jumps these fences, he’s still well handicapped on his old form but needs a better ride than he got in the Kim Muir. Maybe he was prepping for this!
Ruben Cotter is a glass horse but, if he’s over the leg problems which have meant only five chases by the age of nine, he has one thing over all the others: he jumps brilliantly.
Monetaire was a huge near-miss gamble at Cheltenham, when Darna outran him. There’s not much between them at the weights.
My short-list is Eastlake, Darna, Monetaire, Ruben Cotter, Bless The Wings, Fairy Rath.
Monetaire and Ruben Cotter are around 11.0 on BETDAQ but the big value is the dark horse, Fairy Rath, at a massive 39.0 in the orange this morning
4.40 Aintree (Sefton Novices’ Hurdle) Is there a Grand National hero lurking among past winners of this: Saint Are won it in 2011 and is set to be a popular outsider tomorrow.
Though Cheltenham winners or placed figure strongly among the Sefton results, returns have included 33-1, 25-1, 20-1 and 16-1 since 2007.
The top and the bottom of this race is that, despite a Punchestown second to Douvan, Alpha Des Obeaux is disguised because Mouse Morris has only just struck form and Zeroshadesofgrey has swerved Cheltenham for this.
Vyta Du Roc made a mess of the last in the Neptune at Cheltenham or would have been second and should do better upped in trip, as should Roi Des Frances for Mullins-Walsh.
Minello Rocco has that ‘could be anything’ look, yet to be seriously threatened, and I take him over the exposed Vyta Du Roc and Roi Des Frances at the front of the market.
But, at 15.5, Alpha Des Obeaux could be the big value, as he travels so well and has always been an exciting horse at him. Richard Johnson booked for a Gigginstown goer. So come on Mouse!
5.15 Aintree (Champion Bumper) I usually avoid these races like the plague (example: a plague of politicians spreading porkies before May). Then my man in the long grass ‘told’ me Moon Racer for the Cheltenham Champion Bumper and he landed a monster gamble down to 9-2 favourite.
It’s in the archive, but this one looks like just another muddle, no matter how much brain power I use.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points, except the banker and the bull’s-eye bet)
BET 2.5pts win on each KNIGHT’S PARADE and SOME BUCKLE (1.40 Aintree)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) GLINGERBURN, and 3pts win and place CYRUS DARIUS (2.15 Aintree)
PLACE LAY 5pts IRISH CAVALIER, and BET 3pts win AINSI FIDELES, and 2.3pts win and place CARAIG MOR (2.50 Aintree)
BET 9pts win CHAMPAGNE FEVER (3.25 Aintree)
BET 3pts win on each MONETAIRE and RUBEN COTTER, plus 1pt win and place FAIRY RATH (4.05 Aintree)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 12pts win MINELLA ROCCO and 3.4pts win and place ALPHA DES OBEAUX (4.40 Aintree).
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