WAIT FOR IT: KATIE TO LAND NAP: The Sandown Tingle Creek meeting opens today with some tough novice races and Daqman prefers to wait for a raid by Katie Walsh for his nap in the amateur-riders’ race.
9.0 HIDDEN HORSE FOR STARTERS: But he starts with a 9.0 bet on a Jonjo O’Neill runner, which he reckons a Hidden Horse, better than the bare form.
TOMORROW: Don’t miss Daqman’s guide to the big meeting, with his record over Pricewise standing at 8-2 and his lays on 18 out of 20.
HIDDEN HORSE FOR SOME FESTIVE CASH
1.30 Sandown Phil Bull, founder of Timeform, used to have contacts in the weather stations around the country, so that he got ‘inside information’ – including the wind velocity – before he had a bet.
I could do with a mediumistic call to Mr Bull right now, with the Racing Post on-line racecards topped with a weather forecast ‘Rain’; but the trade-paper itself hedging ‘Generally sunny despite afternoon clouds.’
And the going? Between ‘good to soft, good in places’ and ‘soft, good to soft in places.’ Help!
The conditions are particularly important to strongly-run Sandown two-milers, with the uphill finish; ‘fast and furious’ is the Post’s Spotlight verdict.
Assuming no further rain, I wouldn’t want to be on horses which have normally lost their edge of pace by 10 or 11 years old (three of them are a few weeks short of that).
And with Artifice Sivola, Cloudy Joker, De Faoithesdream, Festive Affair and Malibu Sun all potential front-runners, fast it will be (and furious me, as ever, if I can’t find the winner!
There could be a hidden horse here. Festive Affair has raced in top company at the Aintree and Cheltenham festivals and is better than the bare form.
A big, strong sort, he needed his first run back and is worth a win and place at 9.0 in the BETDAQ win orange this morning.
1.40 Exeter There was a plunge horse in this marathon this morning, when As De Fer (6.6 offers) steamed to the front of the BETDAQ market. This is the first of two bets today, in which I’ve followed the money.
LUNCH COULD BE A FEAST OVER FENCES
2.05 Sandown This is a tough one for punters, since only two or three of them have been tried over fences.
From the top yards, Bilbrook Blaze ran well on his reappearance after a breathing op, but Cloudy Beach could also improve, recovered from a tendon injury.
Colin Tizzard (Dusky Lark) is in top form and Victor Dartnall (Dancing Shadow) turned the corner yesterday with Exmoor Mist.
On breeding, Long Lunch, Dancing Shadow, Bilbrook Blaze and Cloudy Beach are the ones bred for chasing, and the BETDAQ market was 9.0 bar the four.
I put a pencil line through Cloudy Beach as a bit old to start out over fences and so lightly raced I fancy he has more than one problem, while Dancing Shadow has always been a bridesmaid over hurdles, eight times placed out of 10 without winning.
So I ended up taking 6.2 about each of Long Lunch (interesting jockey booking of Harry Skelton) and Bilbrook Blaze (the only runner recently placed).
PUNTERS READ ‘WINNER’ ON THE LABEL!
2.40 Sandown The going is important here, with the sequence horses Roadi Joe (four in a row) and Francis Of Assissi (three consecutive before the last day) both winners on good ground.
On the other hand, Captain Chaos and Clondaw Cian have each scored twice in soft conditions.
They didn’t want Roadi Joe this morning (out to 7.8) but Francis Of Assissi is harder to dismiss because his last run was against top-class opposition in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton and he won on heavy ground on the Flat in Ireland.
Captain Chaos is still a baby, with only two runs on his CV, while Clondaw Cian is out a bit quickly after a Fontwell double in November.
While I was assessing these four, something had already overtaken them by the time I checked out the betting.
New market leader on BETDAQ was Label Des Obeaux (3.6 offers with good liquidity) for the Alan King yard which has won the race twice (2009 and 2011). Backing ‘new favourites’ is the best way to deal with novice races.
KATIE CAN TAOI WITH THEM ON MY NAP
3.10 Sandown The burgeoning Conas Taoi is four in a row over fences, still standing, and is napped off a featherweight for Katie Walsh.
Last year’s winner, Firm Order, has been laid out for the race again and Silvergrove would be a factor if reproducing his second in the Grassroots Final at Haydock.
Conas Taio means ‘how are you?’ and his answer is: ‘I’m getting more than a stone from all bar that pair and I’m progressive. Katie won’t need a claim to beat these guys.’
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.5pts win and place FESTIVE AFFAIR (1.30 Sandown)
BET 3.5pts win AS DE FER (1.40 Exeter)
BET 4pts each of two BILBROOK BLAZE and LONG LUNCH (2.05 Sandown)
BET 7.6pts win LABEL DES OBEAUX (2.40 Sandown)
BET 10pts win (nap) CONAS TAOI (3.10 Sandown)
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