19.0 AND 14.0 BETDAQ OUTSIDERS AND FOLLOW-UP SUPERNAP With Rakhine State (WON 5-4) getting Daqman’s nap back to form yesterday, he follows up with some big-odds outsiders – and a supernap – on a fascinating Flat card in the sunshine of Sandown and the richest day’s jumping at Perth, where the ground is easing after showers. Headlines:
🔹 REGGAE’S A PROGRESSIVE RUNNER
🔹 TEN UP IN STOUTE’S CRYSTAL BALL
🔹 TRAVEL THE BETDAQ VALUE AT 7.0
🔹 FIRM-GROUND MONEY IN THE BANK
🔹 NOW NICKY DRIVES 14.0 TEE SHOT
🔹 19.0 FAIR PUNT FOR MILLION MAN
REGGAE’S A PROGRESSIVE RUNNER
1.50 Sandown (Esher Cup) If three-year-old conditions races are hard enough, though you have the ratings on your side, think how much more difficult when the official weights compiler has ‘equalised’ them. I give you the three-year-old handicap.
Where can we find an edge? We could side with Silvestre De Sousa, who has ridden this mile race so well that he’s won the Cup three times in seven seasons. That’s a vote for Fox Leicester.
Trainers in form? Several doing reasonably well, while there are negatives for David Menuisier (Migration), William Jarvis (Lestrade) and Ed Walker (Starfighter). The 9st 7lb of Masaru and 9st 6lb of Ours Puissant have not been successful since the 1980s.
Stalls black marks on the round course? Lestrade (in 8), Loch Ness Monster (10) and Migration (11) have outside draws, but in among them is Fox Leicester in 9. Going? Red Bravo and Reeves have shown their best form on soft(ish) ground.
House Of Kings and Starfighter are making their reappearance. So, too, Red Bravo, except that he won first time last season. Who’s been placed at this level already? Answer: Ours Puissant, Reggae Runner, Reeves.
Having put my stats slide-rule on the field, and come up with the progressive Reggae Runner (5.4 best on BETDAQ this morning), I fear only a ‘hidden horse’ among them to confound all analysis!
TEN UP IN STOUTE’S CRYSTAL BALL
2.25 Sandown (Gordon Richards Stakes) Sir Michael Stoute usually gets one ready for this. His form figures for the race in the decade are: 1102311. He’s won it nine times since 1981, including with Ulysses (2017) who would go on to win the Eclipse and the York International.
Stoute today saddles Crystal Ocean for back-to-back wins, having officially improved the horse 7lb since he was successful last year, narrowly, from Fabricate.
Three times a winner last year, Thundering Blues is now a 31lb better animal since scoring over today’s CD in September, 2017. Has been placed three times after a break but never won, and his stable is currently quiet.
Winner of a Group 3, Trais Fluors is a rare Andre Fabre raider. Stable in form but this entire hasn’t scored on turf beyond a mile and his last grass victory was 22 months back.
His AW wins have been opportunist: he beat ‘nothing’ at Deauville and his Chantilly success came at the expense of a stayer dropped in trip, who was closing him down in the final furlong.
Knight To Behold is a Group-2 scorer in France who won the Lingfield Derby Trial first time out last season but he would be a one-off in his stable’s current form, with Harry Dunlop 0-16 (just two placed) on AW and turf in the last fortnight and, in fact, hasn’t had a winner in 203 days – more than six months – which was 56 runners ago.
TRAVEL THE BETDAQ VALUE AT 7.0
3.00 Sandown (Classic Trial) John Gosden goes for a hat-trick here and his fifth winner since 2010, but spoils it for punters by running two.
Travel On couldn’t get a clear run when behind Bangkok (fourth) at Newmarket in September, but he won very easily in March and has Frankie Dettori up in preference to Alfaatik, very green when winning his maiden in December.
Kuwait Currency was given tough tasks behind Magna Grecia and Too Darn Hot in Group-1 tests, and has had a run back, but the market disowned him this morning (early 26.0 on BETDAQ).
I booked passage through this tricky contest with 7.0 Travel On but Bangkok looked a strong favourite at the time, his Doncaster maiden win having worked out well. Watch the later trading.
FIRM-GROUND MONEY IN THE BANK
3.35 Sandown (Mile) Team Hannon has had half of the winners of this in the decade, and have chosen Oh This Is Us to target the six. He ran a week ago, but has won before when turned out in such a short space of time.
He’s a nearly horse (placed in three Group races without winning) compared with Hannon stars who won this: Toormore (rated 114), Trumpet Major (114), Dick Turpin (124) and Paco Boy (124), albeit rated close to the first two of those.
He is behind Addeybb (117), Beat The Bank (116 ) and Sudeois (115) today, with last year’s winner, Addeybb, a good bet again if it rained but my man says that the long grass is dry on a ‘gorgeous morning with clear blue skies.’
Rain would also help Balmoral winner, Sharja Bridge. I couldn’t see why that one was around 2-1 favourite, with 040 form on a surface with ‘firm’ in the description, though Roger Vartan was ‘not concerned.’
Beat The Bank, a son of Paco Boy, has won three Group-2 events, including the Summer Mile at Ascot on good to firm, and has scored twice after a break. His stable has been in decent form.
Regal Regality has won first time out in the past and is highly regarded by Sir Michael Stoute, who runs Crystal Ocean earlier, and starts the meeting on a four-timer after a hat-trick in the last three days.
I took 3.75 Beat The Bank and 11.5 Regal Reality but thought that a bit too big to be busy! It’s a bit early in the season to start laying horses, with not much recent form to go on, but I was tempted by 3.05 Sharja Bridge in the green.
NOW NICKY DRIVES 14.0 TEE SHOT
4.15 Perth (Highland National) Nicky Richards has had a fine season. Modest and clearly emotional after his recent success in the Scottish Grand National, as Taking Risks’ triumph brought back memories of his father’s victories in the race.
When Gordon W Richards won it with Playlord, ridden under a 12st welter burden by the tough guy jockey of his day, Ron Barry, the reception was bigger than the Hampden Roar and Playlord was spoken of with reverence like a Red Rum.
That was 50 years ago, so what a time to memorialise it with another win for the Richards family.
Nicky runs 14.0 BETDAQ offer Teddy Tee here, second on the National track at Ayr twice in his few attempts at a long distance. Finds it difficult to jump out of mud but needs some cut, so the hope is for good to soft .
Rain this morning went against Blue Kascade but was welcome for Weststreet (four times a winner on soft-heavy) and the one he short-headed in March, Misfits, who now has a weight pull.
Gold Opera has too much weight on the stats. Capard King hasn’t won for three years. Achill Road Boy’s consistency has him high in the weights.
19.0 FAIR PUNT FOR MILLION MAN
3.15 Perth (Fair Maid Of Perth Mares’ Chase) Fond memories, too, but more recent ones for Gordon Elliott, whose early days were paid for by many winning visits to Perth. He passed £1million in Perth earnings on Wednesday.
Now he tries for the biggest prize of this richest day’s racing at the track with Mrs Lovett, a 19.0 BETDAQ outsider this morning in an eight-runner field.
Henry Daly is looking to 3.55 favourite Atlanta Ablaze, who might have won the NH Chase at Cheltenham but for falling two out.
DAQMAN’S TIPS
1.50 Sandown (win 20)
BET 5pts win REGGAE RUNNER
2.25 Sandown (supernap)
BET 20pts win CRYSTAL OCEAN
3.00 Sandown (win 20, win 10)
BET 3.25pts win TRAVEL ON
BET 7pts win BANGKOK
3.15 Perth (win 30, win 10)
BET 1.5pts win and place MRS LOVETT
BET 4pts win ATLANTA ABLAZE
3.35 Sandown (win 20)
BET 7.25pts win BEAT THE BANK
BET 2pts win and place REGAL REALITY
4.15 Perth (win 30)
BET 2.25pts win and place TEDDY TEE
EARLY BIRDS
3.35 Sandown
ADDEYBB
5.05 Sandown
NEW KING
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