CLASS WILL OUT IN BF HURDLE: Which horses in Saturday’s BF Hurdle at Newbury are in a winning position, weight wise and by age, according to the stats? And which of them have the class to succeed? Daqman answers with a variation of his famous ABC Guide.
TODAY OVER STICKS: Daqman concentrates on today’s jumping action ahead of another big weekend. He looks through the best selections for Kempton and Wetherby.
SATURDAY’S NEWBURY HURDLE: ABC GUIDE
3.35 Newbury (Saturday) BF Hurdle: It’s 12 years since a horse older than six won this race, and only one winner has carried more than 11st 2lb since 1990.
The qualifiers are listed in order of their level of winning performance:
A is for Listed and Graded placed; B class 2; C class 3 and lower.
A Agrapart
Not much scope and well-beaten third in the Tolworth, albeit behind Willie Mullins’ Neptune contender, Yorkhill, and earlier 20-lengths winner at Aintree when allowed to bowl along in front.
A Buiseness Sivola
Down the field in the Fred Winter but second in the Grade-1 Punchestown Champion Four-year-old Hurdle last Spring and had a run back in a quality race at Leopardstown in January. One of five acceptors for Willie Mullins, who also has Blazer among my qualifiers.
A Modus
Second in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham last Spring and third in the Punchestown equivalent. Back-to-back wins in the autumn, including on the soft, but not so good in heavy ground on the last day.
A Starchitect
After placing behind Peace And Co and Hargam, finished fourth in the Fred Winter (Buiseness Sivola and Zarib behind). Now switched from Don McCain to David Pipe.
A Sternrubin
In the first two for seven consecutive races, winning his last three, taking Gerry Feilden and dead-heating for prestigious Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot on the last day. Highly progressive sort.
A Zarib
Fred Winter sixth who filled the same position this season in The Ladbroke behind Sternrubin. A winner twice on soft, and a tough test should play to his strengths.
B Forest Bihan
First six in big-field Ascot handicap in November and gave lumps of weight to the winner when narrowly beaten at Catterick in January. Make a better chaser.
C Affaire D’Honneur
Placed on heavy at Enghien, and gambled on for the start of his career in UK, going down narrowly (too much to do) at Kempton over Christmas, when the going was more on top.
C Blazer
The big market mover and the choice of Barry Geraghty, had been chasing before impressive hurdles win, hardly off the bridle, at Leopardstown last week.
C Flying Angel
Very lightly raced, left for dead by Agrapart at Aintree in December and nine lengths behind Matorico when fifth at Kempton on Boxing Day.
C Mad Jack Mytton
Well behind in the Greatwood but cracking second back at Cheltenham in December, giving a ton to the winner. May not want the ground too heavy.
C Matorico
Down the field in the Triumph and in the Punchestown Champion Four-year-old Hurdle but consistent in lower grade since.
ALSO RUN:
Cheltenian Runner-up last year (12lb higher now) and Scottish Champion Hurdle winner (good ground) in 2015, after running down the field in the County Hurdle.
Dicosimo Behind in the Triumph Hurdle, and fourth to Buiseness Sivola at Fairyhouse afterwards. Won his sole start back by 10 lengths on heavy ground in a Listed.
War Sound Claimed off a weight which is already pegged down by top-weight Cheltenian from the same yard, War Sound stormed clear in the Swinton (Grade 3) at Haydock in May on only his fifth start. Not seen since after minor injury, but this has always been his target.
Kalkir Pulled up Triumph Hurdle but fine round of jumping after 10 months off to run second in Graded hurdle at Leopardstown a month back.
Ivan Grozny Grade-3 placed but down the field in the Fred Winter, and also – along with Waxies Dargle – when hooded in Kalkir’s race at Leopardstown in January.
Waxies Dargle Well behind in the big festival events, County Hurdle at Cheltenham and Ladbroke Ireland Hurdle at Punchestown, but good third in the Greatwood and the mud will suit.
Montbazon One-time fourth in the Supreme Novices, third in the County Hurdle but nine years old now.
Chieftain’s Choice Has run in some fair quality races, with only seven events on his CV, but 80 lengths last of six on the last day.
Champagne At Tara A maiden over hurdles until winning at Catterick in December. Lightly raced and could improve in a lower grade but, as a Kayf Tara, needs further.
Baby King Soft-ground lover and landed a gamble in lower class in November. Lightly raced and could improve but not in time to make an impact here.
JOSSES HILL TO STEP UP IN KEMPTON
Good racing today but tricky racing. Kempton and Wetherby host two nice cards with decent fields.
2.05 Kempton It’s hard to know where to start with this one.
Cappielow Park won last time out, on his Chase debut having had some middling form over hurdles prior to that. He battled home really well that day at Uttoxeter to get the better of Jaunty Flight and he may have more in the locker. The form of that Uttoxeter race was franked with the third home winning after but I get the feeling that Ali Stronge’s charge may be better over further.
Always On The Run put in a nice performance on his Chase debut at Warwick and dropping back in trip may suit him better than the two and a half miles on New Year’s Eve. Exmoor Mist is another with a big chance and is seeking a hat-trick over the larger obstacles. A 9lb rise from his last win could be detrimental though.
I’m going to take a chance with Devil To Pay who slithered on landing last time when still in contention. He had been off for three years prior to that when pulling up on his reappearance last March. His run in December was much improved and he has been given a chance by the handicapper. Running off 111 puts him into contention if he can put in a performance like he did last time.
3.15 Kempton This race sees a good match up between God’s Own and Josses Hill. This really does look like a match between them.
I’m siding with Josses Hill (pictured), not for his jumping ability but for his speed and the fact that God’s Own has to give him 7lbs. His jumping is an issue, but if this becomes a speed test, I think he will win. Although he fell last time out, his jumping is more slow than him actually being a bad jumper and over two and a miles, this is not going to be as much of a test with just the four runners.
God’s Own is a very smart chaser but the conditions of the race are not in his favour. The step back up to two and a half miles will be interesting to see after him having so many runs over two miles. Josses Hill may just shade it though.
3.50 Kempton Just over a stone separates the 13 runners in this 3 mile handicap chase. This looks ultra competitive.
Shuil Royale and Ned Stark head the weights and both should have a big part to play. However, with Ned Stark, he has been a little disappointing as he was highly touted as a Novice.
Silvergrove is an interesting entrant. He won last time out off a career high mark of 124 and now runs off 130. He’s another who can play a big part in this contest.
A Good Skin didn’t have ground conditions to suit last time when fancied in the December Gold Cup. The step back up to 3 miles will be a big help for him but he wouldn’t want any rain to come. Even with that addendum, I think he could take some beating in this. His highly rated but in a compressed handicap like this, it doesn’t make as much of an impact.
MINSTRELS IS THE NAP ON A TRICKY DAY
3.00 Wetherby Small field for this Handicap Hurdle. Just the four go to post and all four look to have some chance.
Minstrels Gallery is very difficult to get away from though. He has been well beaten in his last two runs but they were very good races. Last time in Ascot was a Grade 3, so this will be a completely different test for the son of Refuse to Bend. Ground should be no issue having won on heavy previously when beating Qewy at Doncaster. He should prove to be very difficult to beat.
4.10 Wetherby This is another tricky race. Seven runners over 3 miles in a handicap chase with no real outstanding participant.
Voyage A New York catches my eye at the bottom of the handicap. He put in a much better effort on today’s track, over a shorter trip, when finishing third behind Caraline in mid January. He now runs off a mark of 110 with his last winning mark coming last February at Newcastle off 117 when he stayed on really well to outbattle Wakanda. He stepped up markedly in class following that run and a performance similar to last month’s should see him go close.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Staked 1-9pts on strength, 10pts for a Banker)
BET 2pts win and place DEVIL TO PAY (2.05 Kempton)
BET 8pts win (nap) MINSTRELS GALLERY (3.00 Wetherby)
BET 5pts win JOSSES HILL (3.15 Kempton)
BET 3pts win A GOOD SKIN (3.50 Kempton)
BET 3pts win VOYAGE A NEW YORK (4.10 Wetherby)
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