MIXED NEWS: The Monday morning inspection news made for good and bad news. Punchestown goes ahead on heavy, soft to heavy in places, but in Sussex the Plumpton card was called off due to heavy overnight rain.
MONDAY BETS: Daqman looks at three races from Punchestown, Ayr and Wolverhampton.
COO LANDS COUP
⭕ 2.55 Ayr: It looks a shrewd move by trainer Tom Lacey to switch Marlacoo back to this level after he was beaten into second in a Sandown handicap last time out and has been raised 4lb for that defeat!
This looks an infinitely easier project for the Lacey runner who joined the yard after winning at Down Royal on debut and he can continue the good run of the stable (4 winners from last 15 runners).
Main danger is probably Orkney Blue whose placed efforts stack up well in the context of the race.
I SHOULD BE SO LUCKY
⭕ 3.35 Punchestown: I’ll by-pass the first four races which are all maiden hurdles and they can be trappy enough at the best of times.
This 3m 1f handicap hurdle will be a huge test of stamina on the ground (see above) but it looks a really weak race that might not take much winning.
As such, I thought Lucky Viv looked massively overpriced on Betdaq Betting Exchange to follow up on her course win earlier in the month which came over a slightly shorter trip but on heavy ground.
She was still staying on well at the end of the race and 5lb claimer John Shinnick gave her an intelligent ride looking for the best ground all the way round and he’s on top again.
The downside is she is up 7lb but I found ruling plenty of these out quite easy on the basis of current form and/or stamina.
At the front of the market Rokathir had also attracted support before this race was cancelled last week but comes into this on the back of a fall here last time out when still going well two out in a chase race.
BACKER OF 500 MORRIS WINS
⭕ 8.00 Wolverhampton: Assuming he doesn’t win on any of his earlier outsiders, Luke Morris has an outstanding chance of recording his 500th course win here on Backer Bilk.
He’s definitely shown a lot more since switching to handicap company and beat today’s main market rival Manton Road over course and distance when the pair were 2nd and 3rd here at the beginning of the month.
Since then, Backer Bilk had a comfortable win (under Morris) at Lingfield and there could be further improvement to come as he seems to have started handicapping off a generous mark.
DAQMAN’S BETS on Betdaq Betting Exchange
★ 2.55 Ayr (win 10, nap)
BET 10.3pts win MARLACOO
3.35 Punchestown (win 30)
BET 2.3pts win LUCKY VIV
8.00 Wolverhampton (win 10)
BET 2.8pts win BACKER BILK
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