DAQMAN NAP LANDS A GAMBLE: Daqman made 15 points profit on his Sunday tips when he landed his best bet, Stroll On By, at Market Rasen. Winner at 6-4 but nearer 6-1 on BETDAQ when the nap was named.
WON 6-4 STROLL ON BY (Daqman nap)
‘I CAN FLY, TOO’ SAYS SOUMILLON: Christophe Soumillon took a leaf out of Ryan Moore’s book, and that flying last-to-first finish on Delacroix in the Eclipse, when he got up on the line in a four-way photo to beat raiders The Lion In Winter (third for Moore) and Shadow Of Light (fourth under William Buick) in the Group-1 Prix Jean Prat at Deauville yesterday. His 121-10 winner, Woodshauna, is trained by Francis-Henri Graffard.
Today and tomorrow a two-part probe on how to spot handicap winners.
PICKING HANDICAP WINNERS
CLASS OF 25: Part 1 Racing is a class structure, like any society where the reward is money, even as the Classic season dwindles and the handicaps take over.
The Classic game is: which O’Brien horses are ready early and which will come on and clean up in the Group races in the good old summertime? The handicaps have three separate levels and are open to a legion of trainers with horses not quite Pattern level.
IMPOSTERS Group horses in disguise. Usually high in the handicap but capable of shrugging off a weight burden.
Often lightly raced so they’re true worth is not yet revealed. Or maybe they are returning from a long absence or have dropped from attempting the Pattern too soon (or as the ultimate disguise).
IMPROVERS Far from ’dropped in class’, their disguise is to emerge slowly and keep climbing the ladder, doing better and better.
Your skill and judgment is to find the trainers capable of producing such animals; they are laughing all the way into the winner’s enclosure.
IMPOSSIBLE The oldest betting law in the book: don’t bet below ‘C’ level, they used to say; now the line is drawn at class 3 (sometimes class 4, if it has potential improvers).
That’s how handicap levels are currently enumerated in graded racing. If the level seems blurred, check on the quality by the ratings of past fields for the race particularly, of course, past winners.
The lower the level you bet in, particularly into class 5 and 6, the more you encounter inadequate horses, lacking speed and/or stamina, short on courage, often ‘quirky’ rides, unwilling, perhaps head held high or swerving away from the pain of pursuit.
* TOMORROW: starting a diary of handicaps, with the accent on trainers.
ODDS-ON IN LATE RETURN
⭕ 2.30 Ayr I used to swerve Ed Dunlop’s runners but have to concede I consequently missed one or two winners more recently.
So I’m giving him a try here, raiding Ayr from Newmarket with Loving Apprentice. She looked primed with a fair effort at Newcastle for a recent sprint at Pontefract, where she is a CD winner at 6f but she lost her action that day.
She’d built up her form, and her reputation, so that she started that Pontefract CD win at odds on, and was beaten only a length in a big field over today’s trip.
THE MIGHT OF JONBON
⭕ 3.45 Worcester Five class-4 handicaps all day but just this outstanding class-2 over hurdles.
Faye Bramley, striking at 25% on the Flat this year from her Lambourn yard, poses the question: Might I win over hurdles?
It’s first run for Faye for Might I, placed in Grade 1 and Grade 2 (behind Jonbon) for Harry Fry.
Handlethekettle won a class 3 here at Worcester 19 days ago. Has never put two wins together before and well worse off with the runner-up, Ukantango.
My Chiquita is another Worcester CD winner but in lower grade, class 4, the same winning level as Collingham.
HANDICAPPER SAYS ‘GO’
⭕ 8.00 Ripon (City Of Ripon Handicap) Class 4 but several in this have competed at a higher level.
Ready Freddie Go, a regular summer winner off marks up to 87 and 90, has not been disgraced this year but is gifted a big chance by the handicapper, down 11lb since March and now off 72.
Zarzyni has run in better company but was getting 2lb when beaten four lengths in victory by ‘Freddie’ at Thirsk in August. Now gives Freddie 6lb.
DAQMAN’S BETS on Betdaq Betting Exchange
★ 2.30 Ayr (win 20 nap)
BET 4pts win LOVING APPRENTICE
3.45 Worcester (win 30)
BET 4pts win MIGHT I
BET 2.5pts to win 10 UKANTANGO
8.00 Ripon (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 4pts win READY FREDDIE GO
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
