11 WINNING BETS IN FOUR DAYS: Daqman racked up the winners count to 11 yesterday with Argaki (WON 4-1) and Intello (WON 2-7) but just missed a fourth winning day on the trot when Sagredo (2nd 8-1) and On The Feather (2nd 4-1) were both run out of it by a length and a half over the notorious Market Rasen run-in.
SPECIAL BET: DAQMAN LOOKS FOR A LIKELY GAMBLE: Daqman has been looking for dark horses and hidden secrets of the BETDAQ betting market. This research will be the principle behind Special Bet, starting today with an 11.0 offer.
I can usually manage three or four winning days a week. But the frustration is that at least one other day could have been set up for a profit by adjusted bets and different placements, which are out of my hands.
How it works is straightforward: you take my first positions in BETDAQ markets which are so punter-friendly, down to 101 and 102% in competitive races.
Then you have all the time up to the ‘off’ and beyond to revise your liabilities, reappraise your position and try to come out in front on each particular race, as offers fluctuate.
You will find, as I do, that certain betting patterns need to be logged. What I am hoping to do with Special Bet is anticipate some of these situations so that I use this column as the base camp but I’ll adventure forward in the next few weeks within entirely different avenues of the market.
We must be more alive to the odds that are affected by, say, a major stable attacking a big-money prize with more than one horse.
For example, on Saturday, the two-pronged Ballydoyle broadside of Declaration of War and Mars in the Eclipse. Yesterday, the Nicky Henderson duo of First In The Queue and Cape Express in the best race of the day, a classy hurdle at Market Rasen.
We’ve seen that, time and again, the second string of such stables wins the races, yet we cannot overlook the choice of stable jockey on the short-priced one in the market.
I can tell you now that, if you dutched the two stable contenders, you would considerably reduce your odds and, therefore, your chances of overall profit in the long term.
In my two examples, you’d have had four losers but, more importantly, my research shows that you would lose in the long run because of diminished value.
I can tell you now that I have compiled a table of stables that often run more than one in a race (Richard Fahey, Richard Hannon etc) and that I shall be using this table in my special-bet assault on the offers.
I cannot tell you now, or in the future, what are the many other assessments and stats I have compiled and will be using in the Special Bet. My plan will be: I keep my secrets; you keep the winnings.
But, generally, I will continue to be transparent, and reveal my regular research on stats and situations, as in the big race at Ripon tonight, which contains an obvious starter for the Special Bet: a classy horse far too big at the price.
8.20 Ripon (Summer Sprint Trophy) Following the BETDAQ market, after taking your first positions with me, is essential in this race.
In 10 of the last 11 years, the winner has come from the SP parameter 2-1 to 9-1, five of them between 2-1 and 4-1. Four of those winners were gambles (i.e. they arrived late to that front section of the market).
Noticeably, seven of the last eight winners carried between 9st 1lb and 9st 7lb., so it would seem that a touch of class will out.
So the obvious first assessment after taking your position with my bets is to see whether any long-priced offers you took have shortened or no and, of course, what else is being backed to the potential detriment of my selections.
One of the best examples in this race was the Mark Johnston trained Lowdown, who bounced back from easy defeats in class-2 races to land the money in this class 3, backed in from double figures to 5-1
An even bigger dive in grade is taken in the race today by Jadanna, who for more than a year now has competed in Group 1 (once) Group 2 (twice, Group 3 (three times) and Listed level (four).
Her trainer, James Given, has also won this trophy before, but Jadanna was completely overlooked in the race assessment on the Racing Post website last night.
As a result, and because of its late-night position in the day’s programme, I was able to get 11.0 on BETDAQ yesterday at around 6.45 pm., 10.5 at 7.30 this morning.
I shall be revising my betting strategy in the Daqman Library shortly, and updating the results. One change I will nominate today is that the Special Bet and the nap are always doubled in Daq Multiples on the following grounds.
Though I can’t see as far ahead as you, then at least I can hope that the Special Bet does indeed start at reduced odds and I will use a fraction of those odds as leverage for the nap.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 20 points each)
BET 5.5pts win ACE FIGHTER PILOT (2.45 Newton Abbot) with 5pts win ANOTHER HERO (2.15 Newton Abbot) as the stakes saver.
VALUE BET: 8pts win (nap) NORMAL EQUILIBRIUM (5.00 Ayr)
BET 4.2pts win BLANC DE CHINE and 3pts win CRUISE TO THE LIMIT (7.30 Windsor)
SPECIAL BET: 2.1pts win JADANNA (8.20 Ripon)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 1pt win double NORMAL EQUILIBRIUM (5.00 Ayr) and JADANNA (8.20 Ripon)
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