WINNER IN THREE FOR THE CUP: The Melbourne Cup tomorrow morning continues Daqman’s charge to the wire with his record-breaking 103 feature-race winners this Flat season, 34 in front of any previous season’s score and a mile ahead of his Racing Post rival Pricewise (on 21). Each man has three selections for the Australian race.
TODAY’S NAP IS AT KEMPTON: Today’s nap is in a hurdles race at Kempton Park, which sees the return of Silviniaco Conti as he preps for a big November chase. Daqman naps a sprightly hurdler against him this afternoon.
HE’S ZINGING: I LOVE PARIS IN THE SPRINGTIME
4.00 am Tuesday, Flemington, Australia (Melbourne Cup) Ed Dunlop finally gets his Melbourne Cup! I can see the headline but it’s not about his luckless Red Cadeaux – three times second in the race – but about stablemate Trip To Paris, who is reportedly ‘zinging’ on the gallops, and has it all going for him in this late-Spring adventure in Australia.
The Ascot Gold Cup winner has been so sharpened up by his time Down under that he ran second over just a mile and a half in the key prep race, the Caulfield Cup.
He has a decent draw (seven winners in the last decade have come from stalls 8 to 14), and is a hold-up horse with the right weight (7 out of 10 carried 8st 8lb to 9st).
He loves big-field action requiring a sustained dash to the line, as indicated by success in the Chester Cup (nine of the 10 Melbourne Cup winners in the decade had won an event with 15 runners or more).
I think the race is a mess for Big Orange. He likes to pull himself to the front and gate 23 will use him up.
Max Dynamite travels well, is working well, and seems suited to this race, but, contrary to what you read in the Press, he is not well drawn: stall 2 could be a killer. It’s very hard to win from the extremes of low or high.
Despite his weight, Snow Sky is a big danger: the race has been a long-term plan. He was publically nominated for Flemington by trainer, Sir Michael Stoute after he won the Yorkshire Cup way back in May.
Snow Sky was also prepped in the Caulfield Cup, after a break since the King George. He was only fifth, more than four lengths behind Trip To Paris, but will have needed the race after so long away from the track. Again, the snag is a high gate in 16.
Victoria Derby winner, Preferment, is 2-2 at Flemington and is regarded as a ‘real stayer’ by Chris Waller, who has placed in the race before. The eyecatcher in the Caulfield was the Japanese entire, Fame Game, drawn in the middle of tomorrow’s field.
Caulfield runner-up, Trip To Paris, has someone special on his side; on his back, that is. The name is Tommy Berry and, if you don’t know him now, put him in your notebook for Royal Ascot.
Berry is the jock who will steer the ‘tornado’ Chautauqua to take one – or more? – of the big English sprints next year.
Chatauqua has won eight times at Group level this year, and Berry has scored 10, including for Gai Waterhouse, who has two runners tomorrow but permits him to be poached by Dunlop for the ‘Paris job.’
The ground is vital to two other European raiders: Sky Hunter will be fresher than most but likes it soft, and is not suited to the sunshine-drying ground.
Quest For More has enough weight pull to confirm his Northumberland Plate beating of Max Dynamite and reverse his Goodwood Cup defeat by Big Orange but needs a firm(ish) surface, and the better weather may come too late for him.
Of the Ballydoyle contingent, Bondi Beach is only three (next year?), and Kingfisher (strike rate 3-15) is difficult to win with: he can beat Trip To Paris on Gold Cup form in June but, though he prepped for that with a Listed win over 1m 6f at Leopardstown earlier that month, has flopped twice at that trip since, and needs to bounce back.
BETTING VERDICT: There are not many 2m races of substance in Europe and this near-£2m winner’s purse has our trainers plotting this up months in advance, not least this year by Sir Michael Stoute, and huge odds about Snow Sky (45.0 in the BETDAQ orange as I write) belie his chances, despite his wide draw, with globetrotting Ryan Moore currently surfing the big prizes with powerboat rides.
Ed Dunlop knows all about this race and has booked the jockey of the year in Australia for Trip To Paris (an 8.0 chance), whose style of running seems perfect for this race.
Fame Game, at only 4.7 in the BETDAQ orange, is no value, and does not have the required running style that the Press claim this morning. He is often slowly away, the explanation which the Caulfield Cup Stewards accepted for his late run through the field.
At the other end of the scale, both Big Orange (60.0) and Quest For More (64.0) are so easy to back the implication is that they are not in the least bit fancied.
Of the home hopes, Preferment has long been regarded as a Melbourne Cup winner, a stayer with the speed and class to win a Derby: 9.8 on BETDAQ. He’s my third choice to match the Pricewise trio of bets. I’ll lay the favourite and hope to land a Double Whammy.
BROTHER WHERE ART THOU? STILL HURDLING..
2.30 Kempton What prompts a trainer to change his mind? Usually, an exciting bit of work or improvement in form.
Philip Hobbs was going chasing with Brother Tedd but he won so well over hurdles at Sandown that he is tempted to see if he can defy a penalty for that at the start of his new season.
Low Key was taking a rest after a long season on the Flat, culminating in disappointment in the Cesarewitch. But he’s working well, and David Pipe saw an opportunity off a low weight mark here.
Silviniaco Conti sets out on his sixth season with this prep for a big chase later in the month and may find Brother Tedd too speedy at the weights.
3.05 Kempton Outsider at 12.5 on BETDAQ this morning, King’s Lad could win this by default, with the stable buoyant after Cue Card’s return to form.
The trip is well short for both Fingal Bay and Smad Place, while a clear round will be the order for Easter Day, who has something to prove this season.
DAQMAN BETS (staked 1 to 9 today; to win 30 for tomorrow’s big race)
BET 6pts win CATHERINE’S WELL (1.50 Plumpton)
BET 8pts win (nap) BROTHER TEDD (2.30 Kempton)
BET 4pts win DISCAY (2.40 Ludlow)
BET 3pts win KING’S LAD (3.05 Kempton)
DOUBLE WHAMMY: LAY 5pts FAME GAME, and BET 4pts win TRIP TO PARIS, 3.4pts win PREFERMENT and 0.6pts win SNOW SKY (4 am Flemington)
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