MOORE MAGIC FOR THE MELBOURNE CUP: Ryan Moore is riding high and Daqman fancies the firm ground will give him yet another international winner when Marco Botti’s Dandino takes on a formidable home defence in the Melbourne Cup, headed by Fiorente.
DAQMAN’S ABC GUIDE: Six horses have complete credentials but Daqman worries about the ground for Brown Panther and Verema, and the trip for Super Cool, finding Royal Empire and Seville short on class. See his 1-2-3-4 Verdict.
A: 11 winners out of 12 came from barrier starts 3 to 13
B: 8 out of 12 have carried between 52 and 55.5kg. None of the last six winners carried more than 54.5 (8st 8lb)
C: Only 2-25 were older than five or younger than four
D: Winner of a Group or Graded race (10 out of 10)
ABCD BROWN PANTHER Team Michael Owen have long targeted this £2.5m goal for their 2011 Doncaster St Leger runner-up to Masked Marvel (Sea Moon third, Seville fourth), who came back to form this Northern Hemisphere summer.
Upped to 2m on good ground for the first time, in only his third stamina test since Doncaster (he was beaten little more than a neck in the Irish Leger), he romped home in the Goodwood Cup (2m). Fast ground might be against him.
ABCD FIORENTE Yet to run a bad race in Australia since sent over from Sir Michael Stoute’s yard for last year’s Melbourne Cup, in which – blinkered first time – he ran second to Green Moon on his debut for Gai Waterhouse, one-time English actress and daughter of legendary Aussie trainer, Tommy Smith.
Fiorente came back to form in September and just missed out on first prizes over a mere 10 furlongs in Group 1s at Flemington and Moonee Valley. His 8st 9lb is just a pound more than the last six Cup winners have carried, and gives him a 6lb pull for a length on Green Moon.
ABCD ROYAL EMPIRE Has never raced beyond the 13f of Newbury’s Geoffrey Freer Stakes, which he won in August, and has never won above Group 3.
However, he is is lightly raced and has been in the first two for 10 of his 13 starts. Nice weight. Borderline draw. Voleuse De Coeurs – by the same sire – has won over today’s distance.
ABCD SEVILLE The Metropolitan Handicap winner for the Williams team (Group 1 Randwick 1m 4f) but that was his first win for three years, and his sole claim to fame in the interim was his second to last year’s Cup winner, Green Moon, in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes at Flemington last October, albeit over only 1m 2f.
The Irish Derby runner-up of 2011 when trained at Ballydoyle, Seville was a 10-lengths third to Sea Moon in the Great Voltigeur before his only try over further, fourth to Masked Marvel in the Doncaster St Leger. Wears blinkers.
ABCD SUPER COOL Australian Cup winner as a three-year-old and Victoria Derby runner-up at Flemington (13f) but has been restricted to 1m 2f and even less since then and is by a sire with a stallion stamina index of only 6.0f.
However, not far behind Fiorente in the Cox Plate and Foreteller at Caulfield, without suggesting that he could take either one over a longer trip. Wears blinkers.
ABCD VEREMA Mikel Delzangles (Dunaden 2011) and Alain De Royer-Dupre (Americain 2010) have won two of the last three Melbourne Cups for France.
The Americain yard now saddles the lightly-raced Verema (12 runs under Rules), by Barathea, a soft-ground sire. She handles firm but the question is: how well in this company?
Back to-back Group 2s from small fields in the summer and defeat of Joshua Tree in the Kergorlay looks smart after that one’s Canadian International win. Wearing of tongue-tie another worry.
ABD DANDINO Ryan Moore was back across the pond to teach some of the yanks a lesson at the weekend. Now he tests the Aussie mettle with the horse that won him the American St Leger (14f) at Arlington for Marco Botti.
Badly drawn when runner-up in the Caulfield Cup, Dandino is now 4lb better with the length-and-a-quarter winner, Fawkner. In the first two 11 out of 12 times that he’s run on firm side of good.
ABD FAWKNER One of six starters that make up Macedon Lodge’s Team Williams, which has already won the Cup four times. Has a cool draw in 8. Wears blinkers.
Winner up to only 7f, and third to Black Caviar over 6f in March, there was a huge question mark over Fawkner’s stamina until he landed Lloyd Williams his first Caulfield Cup last month.
He was receiving 4lb from runner-up Dandino and giving 4lb to the third horse, Dear Demi (Hawkspur, Ethiopia behind) but must now meet Dandino at levels and give Dear Demi 8lb. Has never raced beyond 1m 4f.
AB SIMENON Marathon trips absolutely no problem, certainly not at Ascot, where he’s won the Ascot Stakes and Queen Alexandra Stakes and been runner-up in the Gold Cup.
But his speed for this, and Aussie acclimatisation, were in doubt until he got within less than a length of Sea Moon at Caulfield last month (12f). Never won a Group race. Borderline draw.
ACE SEA MOON Yet another with a big chance for Lloyd Williams but another with plenty of weight. Failed to hack it in Group 1 in the Makybe Diva Stakes but has shown ‘abnormal improvement’ at home recently.
Disqualified when winning a Listed over 1m 4f on today’s course (has never raced over further than that) but won a Group-2 handicap last time at the Caulfield Carnival.
AD GREEN MOON Tries to become the first since champion mare Makybe Diva to land the Cup back-to-back for Macedon Lodge, with blinkers first time in an attempt to nullify his rise in the weights.
He is up to 57.5kg (9st 1lb), a mark which only Makybe has carried to victory in 30 years. None of the first 10 home last year carried more than 55.5. None of the last six winners have carried more than 54.5, which is 8st 8lb.
BCD HAWKSPUR Queensland Derby winner who has run in the major trials for this – Turnbull Stakes and Caulfield Cup – but 18 stall to overcome. Wears blinkers. Tongue-tied.
BCD MASKED MARVEL Another Macedon Lodge hope. The 2011 Doncaster St Leger winner (from Brown Panther) hasn’t won since, and was last but one of 14 in the Cox Plate trial and stone last in the Makybe Diva Stakes.
BCD VOLEUSE DE COEURS Only once out of the frame in 13 starts and regarded by Dermot Weld as a Cup horse for Europe next year but then surprised connections by winning the Irish St leger.
So, switched to Michael Moroney’s charge for Melbourne, but badly drawn today in 21, and Dermot may be made to look right in the first place.
BCD ETHIOPIA Last Year’s Australian Derby winner and a good fifth in the Makybe Diva Stakes in September but subsequently lost his way and not so far revived by the application of visors.
BCD IBICENCO The last two winners of the Geelong Cup to run in this both won. But Ibicenco’s Geelong looked sub-standard. Wears blinkers and not ideally drawn.
BD MOUNT ATHOS Eyecatching fifth (hampered) from stall 8 last year and has not been hard pressed this season, with this in mind, but 22 draw is a heavy blow if not a knockout.
BD MOURAYAN The sixth Lloyd Williams hope, but seven now, and had his chance last year, seventh from stall 3. A 19 draw mugs him this time around.
CD RUSCELLO Ed Walker’s Newmarket challenger gets in by winning on the course three days ago, his first success since a class-4 at Kempton (AW) three years ago. Drawn 24.
BD FORETELLER Blinkered winner up to 1m 2f but has won at Flemington and travels well. Not well drawn and six years old.
CD DEAR DEMI Blinkered Group-3 winning filly at 10f but has run some good trials for this, third in the Caulfield Cup and second in the Mackinnon Stakes. Draw is not helpful.
D TRES BLUE German Derby winner with classy Grand Prix de Deauville success in France and thriving since the move Down Under.
But three-year-olds don’t win this. Stall 20 is bad news. And a third negative is the penchant of French horses for soft ground.
D DUNADEN Winner of this in 2011 but a grand old man of the race now (disappointed last year) with a stopping weight and trappy draw in stall 1.
D RED CADEAUX Ran up to Dunaden in 2011 and eighth last year. Has the benefit of world-class rider, Gerald Mosse. But another past his prime and another drawn in the outback!
DAQMAN’S SUMMING UP: Lloyd Williams six-pack assault in his bid for back-to-back success and Gai Waterhouse’s formidable duo of Fiorente and Tres Blue make the home team look super strong.
I would have been on Brown Panther or Verema had the ground been easier and on Royal Empire could I be sure he’d get the trip and show more class than his Group-3 success so far.
Ryan Moore is riding so well around the world and Dandino (13.0 on BETDAQ) so loves fast ground that, despite his age, I can see him being involved from stall 4.
VERDICT: 1 Dandino, 2 Fiorente, 3 Sea Moon, 4 Brown Panther
DAQMAN’S BETS (All bets are to win 20 points)
BET 3.3pts win MIDNIGHT OSCAR (2.05 Kempton)
BET 4.5pts win THE CRAFTY BUTCHER (2.40 Kempton)
BET 12pts win (nap) FOUNDATION MAN (3.45 Kempton)
BET 3pts win FIORENTE, 1.6pts win DANDINO and 1.5pts win SEA MOON (tomorrow 4 a.m. Flemington, Australia).
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