FOLLOW BIG-RACE SPECIALIST DAQMAN TO BOXING DAY: In the next three days Daqman looks at Boxing Day big races and future bets, while today he concentrates on small-stakes investments at Musselburgh, Lingfield and Newcastle.
NICHOLLS HOLDS KING GEORGE KEY
🎄 3.00 Kempton, Boxing Day (Ladbrokes King George) Unless they are repeat winners like Kauto Star (last won it aged 11 in 2011), all bar three King George heros have been maximum age of eight this century in 20 runnings.
Big races have been won interminably this autumn-winter in soft-ground slogs but there is every chance – say the weathermen- that Boxing Day will be no worse than good to soft.
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the King George 11 times, since 1997, and his twin attackers, Clan des Obeaux and Cyrname, are now clear of the remainder in the market because both will love it good to soft.
So, too, Lostintranslation, Kemboy and Real Steel. But it’s bad news for Monalee, The Storyteller, Saint Calvados, Melon, Simply The Betts and Black Op, who want soft-heavy. We can also delete Waiting Patiently on age.
Around 78% of the 20 winners since 2000 have been rated 169 or higher, which deletes Real Steel, Allaho and Vinndication.
It all goes to giving Paul Nicholls some 76% in the BETDAQ Sportsbook if he runs all three of his.
2.75 Cyrname = 35% Paul Nicholls
2.75 Clan Des Obeaux = 35% Paul Nicholls
8.00 Lostintranslation = 12.5% Colin Tizzard
15.0 Kemboy = 6.7% Willie Mullins
17.0 Frodon = 5.9% P Nicholls
TOMORROW and TUESDAY: Fortune Cookies update and race dates.
DEFINITE DANGERS FADE AWAY
⭕ 1.15 Musselburgh Definite Wisdom is 2-2 at Musselburgh and, though he’s up 5lb, he’s down a grade, after responding to first-time visor on a class 4 on the last day two weeks back.
Izzy’s Champion is 11lb better off to make up little more than two lengths with Definite Wisdom on their February one-two over CD here, but has to bounce back from poor form since.
Pakie’s Dream was fourth in that February heat and is 3lb better off for four lengths with Definite Wisdom.
He won over hurdles here at this level last month (good ground) but fell at the first when favourite at Market Rasen earlier in the month.
HATS OFF FOR HOLLIE
⭕ 2.05 Lingfield The drop back in trip should help Tin Hat and Georgia Dobie seems to bring out the best in the four-year-old but he remains a maiden on the all-weather and doesn’t look the the most convincing favourite on the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
A safer proposition might be Araifjan who gets the perfect stall 1 and Hollie Doyle in the saddle after her creditable and deserved third place in last night’s BBC Sports Personality of The Year.
Araifjan has been running consistently well at this class 4 level and it would come as no surprise to see Holie bounce out of the stalls and try to make all as the pair did at Wolverhampton two starts ago.
GUNMETAL CAN FIRE HOME
⭕ 4.25 Newcastle Look Out Louis snapped a fairly lengthy losing run when winning over course and distance last month but the handicapper has had his say with a 6lb rise – although he won with such authority that he should again account for runner-up Lucky Lodge who is something of a course specialist.
Preference though is for Gunmetal – a steady faller in the weights from the heady heights of three digits.
He gave his strongest indication yet that a win was close when beaten less than a length when fourth to Astro Jakk over course and distance last time out.
Gloves Lynch is also prominent in the market but comes here on the back of being a beaten favourite at Chelmsford and is not certain to be suited by the drop back in trip.
One stepping up in trip is Be Proud who won over five here last time, it was a good effort as he met trouble in the run but before that only beat two home when tried over tonight’s trip.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 3.2pts win (nap) DEFINITE WISDOM (1.15 Musselburgh)
BET 2.1pts win ARAIFJAN (2.05 Lingfield)
BET 1.9pts win GUNMETAL (4.25 Newcastle)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
