DAQMAN SPOTS THE OUTSIDERS With only 34 runners now (officially reduced from 40), there may be fewer chances of fallers and shocks but the forecast soft-heavy ground restores the inevitable jumping errors and exhaustion in the mud. Daqman spots some outside chances.
🆕 LATEST DECS: The top 34 entries confirmed at the five-day stage on Monday.
The top 34 in entry order
Conflated
Noble Yeats
Nassalam
Coko Beach
Capodanno
I Am Maximus
Minella Indo
Corach Rambler
Janidil
Stattler
Mahler Mission
Delta Work
Foxy Jacks
Galvin
Farouk D’Alene
Eldorado Allen
Ain’t That A Shame
Vanillier
Mr Incredible
Run Wild Fred
Latenightpass
Minella Crooner
Adamantly Chosen
Mac Tottie
Chemical Energy
Limerick Lace
Meetingofthewaters
The Goffer
Roi Mage
Glengouly
Galia Des Liteaux
Panda Boy
Eklat De Rire
Chambard
TODAY: Three bets from Daqman on Monday’s cards where he keeps the stakes low. The nap runs at Wincanton.
SKELTON’S NATIONAL TITLE..
🏇 HIDDEN HORSES: Part 2: ’Hidden horses’ describes runners you’ve hardly heard of, those you’ve forgotten or those the trainer hopes we’ve all forgotten!
In the good, old bad old days, there would be someone holding a ticket to a fortune for the Spring double: the 33-1 winner of the Lincoln, Mr Professor, at Doncaster last month, and.. well, something at a price in the Grand National on Saturday.
We’ve had National winners in the decade at 25-1 (twice), 33-1, 50-1 and 66-1, and others placed at 20-1, 25-1 (three times), 40-1 (twice), 66-1 and 100-1 (twice)
Quality horses (Many Clouds) and those with proven stamina (Rule The World), or class and stamina inbred (Noble Yeats), accounted for three of the four recent big-odds winners.
Horses carrying 10st 13lb or less who ran earlier in the year and are aged eight or nine are the best hunting ground:
Chemical Energy (8-10-8) for Gordon Elliottt. Though he’s done best on drying ground, he was a good second on soft, running on, in the NH Challenge Cup (3m 6f) at Cheltenham 2023.
Galia Des Liteaux (8-10-6), runner-up in the Warwick Classic (3m 5f) is trained by Dan Skelton, close contender for top trainer. If he wins the National, he wins the title.
Malina Girl (7-10-5) for Gavin Cromwell. Winner of the Ulster National when only six and won the 3m 3f Cheltenham handicap in November. Stamina no problem; jumping excellent.
Stattler (9-11-4) NH Challenge Cup (3m 6f) winner at Cheltenham in 2022, runner-up in the Irish Gold Cup 2023, prepped for this by Willie Mullins on the Banks course at Punchestown. Needs the ground to dry out.
MORE FROM MER
â• 3.38 Wincanton today The two consecutive class 3 events both appeal at the Somerset venue this afternoon. In this two mile chase Royal Mer is taken to complete a hat-trick for trainer David Pipe.
The grey is relishing the soft ground which he gets again today and might still be ahead of the handicapper despite another 9lb hike. He only had to be shaken up in the closing stages to win at Wetherby last time out having previously won by a similar margin at Leicester.
Gustavian was heading then morning Betdaq Betting Exchange market. He will find this a lot easier than his last two starts when he has finished 3rd and 4th to Heltenham (both times) at Newbury but this is also a significant drop down in distance for him. That would just put me off as sometimes speed can be blunted for horses dropping back quite so significantly in distance.
Force De Frap has been running consistently at a slightly lower level and ran well to finish second to the Dan Skelton improver Doyouknowwhatimean at Stratford last time out but this does looks hotter.
IT’S A COIN TOSS
â• 4.08 Wincanton We switch back to the hurdles for this class 3 over two and a half miles and it could be a toss of the coin (literally) between the local raider Toss Of A Coin (Paul Nicholls) and Home Free (Dan Skelton).
Both six-year-olds arrive in winning form on their handicap debuts.
Toss Of A Coin fell in his first two point starts but is 2-2 in novice company and coped well with class three company when beating Ballybentragh at Newbury (pair 47 lengths clear). He did hang markedly right in the closing stages that day.
I prefer Home Free who also starts handicapping company today but from a starting mark of a full stone lighter than Toss Of The Coin and that could prove significant.
Home Free made all to win at Lingfield last time in a week three runner affair but has plenty of potential.
PEARL’S A WINNER
â• 5.00 Lingfield Ciara Pearl starts handicap life with a mark of 66 which looks pretty kind given the promise she showed as a three-year-old.
She went 212 at Bath, Lingfield and Newcastle with the win coming here at Lingfield over a mile. She should be suited by the extra two furlongs now and Jim Crowley rides for the first time.
Belleplaine ran well well on stable debut for Joseph Parr at Southwell last time out and is another likely to be suited by the step up in trip. The stable are going well and she rates the danger.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.38 Wincanton (win 10, nap)
BET 3.5pts win ROYAL MER
4.08 Wincanton (win 10)
BET 2.2pts win HOME FREE
5.00 Lingfield (both win 10)
BET 3.3pts win CIARA PEARL
BET 3.3pts win BELLEPLAINE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
