THE BIG ROYAL ASCOT COUNTDOWN: Daqman is determined to have you well prepared for Royal Ascot. Look back, look forward to a feast of winner-finding methods in this column:
FORTUNE COOKIES: Top Ten published last Thursday with ratings and form. Update and entries next week.
DAQMAN STRIKES: Sunday he revealed his winningmost races at the royal meeting where one BETDAQ offer was more than double SP at 44.0.
LAYS LOGIC: Daqman’s bid to beat the favourites includes logging quirky and difficult rides which still have Press support. See below: The Unforgiven.
STATS RACE BY RACE: Starting tomorrow for the rest of the week, Royal Ascot stats and facts race by race a week in advance.
ASCOT WEEK: Put it all together.. the value offers, the lays and the Fortune Cookies.
LAYS LOGIC: THEY’RE THE UNFORGIVEN
LAYS LOGIC will return for Royal Ascot. Not that it ever really went away: Daqman has always been looking for favourites to beat, like Live In The Dream at Haydock on Saturday, whose main rival, Believing, was nominated in his column before the race as ‘a good outsider for the Jubilee.’
🏇 LIVE IN THE DREAM had recorded one win from seven starts since last May, which didn’t read like a short-priced favourite; his Group form figures last season were 23422, and he was twice beaten favourite.
In the event, Believing won impressively and could run in the King Charles on the opening day at Ascot and follow up in the Jubilee on the Saturday! Live In The Dream was beaten 10 lengths, fifth, at 5-4 favourite.
As part of Daqman’s personal prepping for big meetings, he notes horses that have let themselves down, shown a quirky nature, or failed regularly to run to their supposed ability. Here’s his list from the Epsom Derby meeting:
🏇 DEIRA MILE Trainer Owen Burrows says he’s ‘the perfect horse for the St Leger’, and you have to give the trainer credit for taking over a Charlie Johnston cast-off and finishing fourth in the Derby.
But the dam, Fastnet Mist, has had only one winner, Deira Mile himself, breaking his maiden in his fifth race, a class-5 novice at Windsor.
At Epsom, Deira Mile ‘dwelt start,’ ‘hung left a furlong out,’ ‘edged right and bumped rival,’ according to Raceform.
It was a slow, old Derby and, in my view, only the first two, City of Troy and Ambiente Friendly can stay in your notebook for horses to follow or Fortune Cookies.
🏇 LOS ANGELES the Derby third, was ‘sweating, fractious at the post, reluctant to load’, well backed but beaten six lengths, leading three out but losing two places in the next furlong.
Yet he’s a short price for Royal Ascot, Irish Derby or Eclipse (you name it), aided and abetted by generous headlines in the Press. Such headlines alone make him shorter than he should be (i.e. not value).
🏇 DANCE SEQUENCE ‘should have won’/’lost her position’/’gave way final furlong’. That’s three races in a row with a sequence of defeats you don’t want to hear.
She seemed not to like the Dip in the Nell Gwyn, wandered off a line and was pipped a neck by Pretty Crystal, who turned out not to be Classic-winning standard, 10th in the 1,000 Guineas.
In that 1,000, Dance Sequence again fluffed her lines in the closing stages; hung right from one out, weakened.
‘She’s just a bit green sand needs further’ was the word to the wise. But William Buick went for daylight down the rail when Dance Sequence hung left in the Oaks, wandered right, and was ‘soon no extra’.
Raceform rather kindly declared her ‘slightly hampered’ at the finish but, through my ‘bins’, she was her own worst enemy. Again, again!
TIGER ROLLS A TEN
⭕ 8.00 Pontefract I’m a big fan of the staying handicaps at Pontefract, mainly on the grounds that you can usually rule a few out straight away on the grounds of stamina.
Not only is 2m 1f a pretty extreme trip on the flat, Pontefract is also quite a quirky circuit with a stiff uphill finish so in reality you are looking at a horse that can handle the trip and then some.
Tigerten fits the bill tonight. His drop in the weights has co-incided with a return to form and there was plenty to like about his latest effort at Chester when runner-up to Animato.
He could easily have been considered the moral winner that day as he found considerable trouble in running – so are we looking at the proverbial ‘winner without a penalty’ here given he is racing off the same mark?
He also goes well for tonight’s pilot Rossa Ryan who has a 2-5 strike-rate when riding.
Main Betdaq Betting Exchange rival Easy Equation attempts to bring his consistent all-weather form back to the turf and sets a fair standard, although the current form of Charlie Fellowes (0-18) would have to be a concern.
A bigger danger may come from Sugarpiehoneybunch who deserves a win for her recent consistency.
NAS THE NAP
⭕ 8.40 Windsor Naasma is ultra consistent and just runs her race and in this finale at Windsor might be all that’s needed.
She won over course and distance in April and followed that up with arguably a better effort, in form terms, when runner-up at Newbury last time out.
She handles the quick ground well and off a mark just one pound higher is napped on a day when a single winner will give me a profit on the day on my staking plan.
D Day Arvalenreeva is an obvious danger after going so close at Leicester last time out.
ARISE KING OF PONTY
⭕ 9.00 Pontefract Low drawn horses have a tendency go off too quickly over the six furlong course at Pontefract leaving them vulnerable to a closer usually from those drawn higher.
With this in mind, I like the chances of King Of Tonga here who is out wide in seven and leaves his run late – as he did at Catterick just last Saturday when failing to catch Resilience by a short head. It proved his current well being and it’s also interesting that connections have decided to strike again quickly.
The horse also has a fantastic strike-rate here at Ponty with form figures of 11223 (the latest 3rd being the only run over 6f – the remainder were over 5f).
Travis (drawn 1) is hard to figure out. On the plus side he represents George Boughey’s stable who are flying but on just his third handicap start the switch back in trip and first time headgear doesn’t really inspire confidence and he was a soundly beaten runner-up on heavy ground at Leicester last time out.
DAQMAN’S BETS
8.00 Pontefract (win 10)
BET 6.25pts win TIGERTEN
8.40 Windsor (win 10, nap)
BET 3.2pts win NAASMA
9.00 Pontefract (win 10)
BET 2.5pts win KING OF TONGA
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
