HEAVENS! IT’S ALL GOING GOSDEN’S WAY: John Gosden’s Arc replacement for Nathaniel, Great Heavens, already the subject of good money because of forecast soft going at Longchamp, today bagged a vital low draw for Sunday’s line-up.
DAQMAN ASCOT NAP AT 7.2: Daqman’s tried a place nap just once in his five years as Britain’s top tipster on BETDAQ, and the horse won at 15-2. Today’s place nap was a 7.2 trade on the Daq this morning.
Great news of the Arc draw. John Gosden and Aidan O’Brien, battling for the trainers’ title in England, have vital single-figure stalls for Irish Oaks winner Great Heavens (7) and Guineas and Derby hero Camelot (5) in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp on Sunday.
With her penchant for the forecast soft ground, the draw is a double bonus for Great Heavens, and also welcomed by connections of the French Derby winner, Soanois (in 2).
But the big gamble of the week, the 2011 Japanese Guineas and Derby winner, Orfevre, may have been blown out of the water by a crushing 18 stall. Sea Moon is also caught out in the bois in 16.
2.20 Ascot Despite climbing 26lb in less than six weeks, with three wins out of four, Idler just missed the cut for tomorrow’s Challenge Cup.
His alternative, this class-3 handicap, is a drop in grade and the horse that made all and finished more than four lengths clear on the Rowley Mile last week is a winner from good-to-firm to soft.
Muarrab has been beaten a total of more than 32 lengths in two runs on the soft; front or van runner Dream Tune could be disappointed by the runaway favourite.
Tartiflette has a chance at the weights on Sandown form; lightly-raced Genius Step’s breeding suggests that he might improve for an easy surface; so could Oblitereight (out of a Barathea mare).
Poisson d’Or and Silverheels are dropped in class, without suggesting that a race like this might be a formality. It’s Idler and Genius Step for me at 5.1 and 8.6 respectively on BETDAQ this morning.
2.55 Ascot I’ve burnt my fingers, taking the ratings as a guide to claimers and classified races this week, and for sure you need a big price in this one, since eight runners are within a pound of each other, officially on 89 or 90.
In my pricing up, if I were to use ratings alone, I’d need at least 7-1 the field, yet four horses are shorter than that. I fancy a pound on Gifted Girl (9.8 on BETDAQ), a rare stable booking for Frankie Dettori, and a filly likely to appreciate some cut, as the daughter of a Selkirk mare.
3.30 Ascot Voodoo Prince is a stone better off than in future handicaps after his good run in a Listed at Goodwood but he was not an easy ride for Kieren Fallon that day – third of four (a fifth runner was tailed off) – nor for Graham Lee (switched, hanging) at Ripon.
Silver Lime – 5.4 on BETDAQ – was a fine third over today’s CD a month ago, after showing a dislike for York. Martin Chuzzlewit loved it, but only because he was visored for the first time and forgot what he was being asked to do.
Fattsota is also a CD winner and will appreciate the easy surface but has a lump of weight to carry; that got him beat last time out.
Party Line looks exposed and Henry Clay and Hanoverian Baron seem pegged in class 4. So the danger to Silver Lime may be Mulaqen (trading 8.2), of whom big things were expected on his early-season performance.
The stable fell out of form but is going great guns right now, and Mulaqen does particularly well when fresh (has won after 192 days off).
4.05 Ascot (Noel Murless Stakes) Cavaleiro is another Tregoning returning from the doldrums, ninth in Camelot’s Derby: a sound win and place bet at 7.2 on BETDAQ in a trappy race.
Five-wins-out-of-seven Sir Graham Wade deserves this crack at a Listed. He’s another who didn’t like York, when Biographer finished in front of him.
Lightly-raced Signed Up is an improver, and Ribblesdale fourth Salford Art is top rated and gets the fillies’ allowance. Signed Up would like more rain. Salford Art wants it to dry up.
4.40 Ascot (Gordon Carter Stakes) It’s a poor year when anything over the age of five wins this; younger horses are 9 out of 10.
Though Ardlui has obvious place claims, and Itlaaq could get a form boost from Sir Graham Wade, three-year-olds have won two of the last three renewals.
So I’m choosing between Flashman (9.4 on BETDAQ as I write) and the likely favourite, Red Orator (5.0 right now). Red Orator has already flopped once when tried at 2m, and the rain is forecast for Flashman.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4.8pts win IDLER and 2.6pts win GENIUS STEP (2.20 Ascot)
BET 2.2pts win and place GIFTED GIRL (2.55 Ascot)
BET 4.5pts win SILVER LIME and 2.7pts win MULAQEN (3.30 Ascot)
BET 3.2pts win and place CAVALEIRO (place nap, 4.05 Ascot)
BET 2.3pts win and place FLASHMAN (4.40 Ascot)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you can work out the offers taken (20 divided by stake).
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
