DAQMAN TAKES KEMPTON HONOURS AGAIN WITH 9-4 NAP: Daqman yesterday landed his seventh win at Kempton in recent days: an omen for the King George? His nap, Guest Of Honour (WON 9-4), scored easily.
41 POINTS PROFIT ON THE DAY: He had already had success with his second runner of the day, also at Kempton, St Paul De Vence (WON 4-1). His overall profit at BETDAQ morning offers was 41.02 points.
12.45 Ascot Sparse fields all day on the heavy ground. Alan King won the penultimate renewal and Letsby Avenue would nearly have scored at Plumpton but for a last-flight error. Let’s be having another look at that one.
Can Fiddlers Bid repeat his all-the-way Ascot bumper romp, with hurdles in the way? I usually wait and see unless the horse in question is with a top yard.
The BETDAQ orange has Lookout Mountain high on the list but he was a first-time horse last year, so what was he doing, only fifth on his return, well fancied at Lingfield last month? Too many questions.
1.20 Ascot They wanted Jumps Road over Mentalist early doors, with Be Definite on the slide. If Thomas Garner can claim his full 7lb, there’s 33lb between top and bottom weight, with every pound a pull of gravity to anchor these novices as they tire in the mud.
Garner’s mount, Rouge Et Blanc, handled the ground in his bumper days but his sole hurdles win was on a sound surface.
Eastlake is slipping down the handicap but has never won one. Jumps Road has run up against some better horses but it’s what he beat in those races that matters.
If you take out Ffos Las, he hasn’t had much success (200F0P) and, even there, he’s beaten nothing: the next pair home last time were 33-1 and 40-1 ‘rags’, and most of those behind him in the race won by Merry King there in February were maidens; and still are.
The strong and quite massive horse, Mentalist, was ultra-consistent over hurdles without the pace to score and was glad to see the big fences at Ludlow.
1.55 Ascot Meganisi had to be dropped from Graded level to score, so Puffin Billy, a bumper winner at Ascot, and impressive at Newbury first time over hurdles, deserves this chance to step up.
2.30 Ascot Simonsig’s return. The fences have to be jumped by the impressive Cheltenham Festival winner (Neptune) but nearest in the market, Act of Kalanisi, is a nearly horse, whose Graded efforts have produced form figures of 04304 over hurdles and fences.
He was behind another top Nicky Henderson novice, Captain Conan, at Sandown last time, and Simonsig was rated 11lb and 18lb higher over hurdles than Henderson’s top novice-chase pair, Sprinter Sacre and Finian’s Rainbow.
Bob Buckler has a tactical chance, with two runners in the field, but is highly unlikely to foil Simonsig, unless he doesn’t take to fences on a racecourse. He’s jumped them well at home.
3.05 Ascot The stats ‘twist your blood’: they say five-year-olds invariably win this (really; no other age group), but they also say that the bottom half of the handicap, where the five-year-olds this year reside, has zero returns, even when it’s soft.
Maybe it all adds up to Spanish Arch being let off by the 7lb penalty for a cruising 10-lengths win at Warwick. Duaiseoir will also have his rating revised, following success at Taunton when blinkered first time (will they work again, so soon?)
Farmer Matt stays really well but his position in the scheme of things has already been revised: a knock-on-the-head 12lb for scoring at Exeter. Scope for improvement but seemingly quite a bit more needed quickly if he is to cope with Spanish Arch in the circumstances.
A poor day’s racing for the punter. All I can do today is treble up my nap with the hot-pots to try and lever up his odds.
DAQMAN’S BETS
DAQ VALUE: BET 6.6pts win (nap) MENTALIST (1.20 Ascot)
DAQ VALUE: BET 9pts win SPANISH ARCH and 2.5pts win (stakes saver) DUAISEOIR (3.05 Ascot)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3pts win treble Mentalist (1.20 Ascot) with Puffin Billy (1.55 Ascot) and Simonsig (2.30 Ascot)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by the stake). Daq Multiples are as stated. Daq Value today indicates two races in which the total probability added up to 104 and 107%. Last year’s SP total on the same races was 115% and a massive 130% respectively
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