6-1 WINNER AS DAQMAN’S ON THE WAY: Daqman bounced back from a lean spell to show a profit on the day yesterday through his opening bet, Mitchell’s Way (WON 6-1), at Carlisle.
SOLE BET WOULD BE MERRION SQUARE: ‘If I had just one bet today, it would be the seven-year-old Merrion Square, laid out the Grand Military Gold Cup at Sandown,’ says Daqman: ‘Jody Sole won the race two years ago and it’s a veteran’s contest this time around, ripe for plucking by a young horse.’
14.5 BETDAQ OFFER FOR CHELTENHAM TRIUMPH: DAY 4 STATS: Today is the final day of his Tuesday-Friday look at the Cheltenham festival stats and ratings. He is expecting a Pipe bonus tilt and reckons there’ll be a Triumph Hurdle turn-up: he takes 14.5 abut a Willie Mullins’ runner.
CHELTENHAM FRIDAY March 15: Gold Cup As I was saying, the ground may be a big factor in next Friday’s Gold Cup. But come rain (it’s back), come shine (has the sun gone again?), you need a horse that gets up that final hill, if he’s going to beat Long Run.
Captain Chris has form on good going of 1112114 (on soft-heavy it’s 212) – and Richard Johnson was emphatic after his defeat by Cue Card: ‘Captain Chris wants good ground and I’d like to ride him in the Gold Cup.’
But, if it comes up soft, Richard? I can see the hill catching him out. For all we know about Bobs Worth, he also needs it on top.
In the end I decided to have my ante-post bet on a young horse that has been winning on soft – though not heavy – but has an action and build which suggests that good ground would play to his athleticism: Silviniaco Conti. How say the stats?
Only one horse aged 10 has won since Cool Ground (1992) and none over 10 since What A Myth (1969) was trained to do so by god, himself (Ryan Price).
Conversely, Long Run in 2011 was the first six-year-old winner since 1947 (and you can forget almost any result that year: it snowed until June).
Kauto Star (2007 and 2009) set a recent precedent for Long Run to win back the crown, and Long Run is still a year younger than three of the last four winners.
In the last decade, all 10 winners had previously won a Grade 1; all were from the first three in the SP betting; nine had finished in the first three at the festival before.
With the exception of last year’s win by a handicapper, the rating for the winner has been consistent (174-179). But on Friday, the front four are not much better than Synchonised (169), with Long Run and Silviniaco Conti 172, Bobs Worth 171, Captain Chris 169, First Lieutenant 167, Sir Des Champs 166.
Daqman’s ante-post bet: SILVINIACO CONTI at 6.0 on BETDAQ
Albert Bartlett: The rain is welcomed by the connections of At Fishers Cross. Ballycasey has won on most terrain but is considered better on a soundish surface.
Ballycasey’s number-one problem is lack of experience: he’s had only two runs: all eight previous winners had had at least three. Bobs Worth won it last year, giving six-year-olds the edge.
The requsite rating has risen to 155-160 in the last three seasons. We’ve nothing official for Ballycasey but he appears to have run only 139 at best, while At Fishers Cross has 152 already on his CV.
Triumph Hurdle: Eight of the decade’s winners had had a maximum of four runs over hurdles, and you should not look below a rating of 139.
Rolling Star (149), Far West and Our Conor (both 145) lead up Irish Saint (142) but the edge from the stats for this race is to one with a Classic-quality Flat sire.
That amends the result to Diakali (by Sinndar and trained Willie Mullins), followed by John Quinn’s pair, Kashmir Peak (Tiger Hill) and Hidden Justice (by French Derby winner Lawman, but has had only two runs).
This trio were 14.5, 15.0 and 18.0 on BETDAQ, at the time of writing. Quinn won the race last year with Countrywide Flame at 33-1. He regards Kashmir Peak as his one for good ground and Hidden Justice for soft.
But, though Diakali was beaten by Our Conor at leop[ardstown, trainer Mullins thin ks he has every chance of reversing that form off the st rong pace of the Trtoiumph at Cheltenham and with a bit of workon his jumping in the intervening five weeks.
Daqman’s ante-post bet: 2.2pts DIAKALI to win 30 points
County Hurdle: The Irish have made a recent habit of winning the County Hurdle (they are five out of six), with winners coming within a narrow ratings parameter of 131 to 139 for seven years in a row.
Tony Martin, Noel Meade and Willie Mullins have each snook two runners into that band, dependent on Petit Robin taking part off 11st 12lb.
He could switch to the Grand Annual which, in raising the weights, would bring in five more Irish challengers. But note that horses aged five and six have won seven of the last nine County Hurdles, named after another trainer-god, Vincent O’Brien.
Martin Pipe Handicap: The Martin Pipe has been run only four times but is rock solid so far for young horses (five and six) within the narrowest of ratings parameters (133-139), which slashes the 196 entries to around 15.
The Pipes have never won it. Could Kazlian, aged five and racing off 132, be the stats tip of the week for David Pipe. It’s close! There’s just a pound in it though, in fact, Kalzian could be running at the top end of that ratings parameter if he wins Satjurday’s Imperial Cup at Sandown.
It wa sin 2007 that David Pipe smash-and-grabbed a big bonus at Cheltenham with the winner of this race, Gaspara, gamvbled on at Sandown into 7-4 favourite, and subsequently successful at the festival in the Fred W int er.
But I note that one of my horses to follow, Gevrey Chambertin, is also likely to go for the Martin Pipe next Friday. His trainer? David Pipe. It all seems to add up to the Pipes winning the Pipe race for the first time.
STATS PICK OF THE DAY: the Grand Annual The Grand Getting-Out Stakes. Look no further than a horse with 10st 13lb or less, aged seven to nine (10 from 13), with a rating from 129 to 134 (seven in the decade).
Just in case J P McManus needs to ‘get out’ in the lucky last, Jonjo O’Neill has Eastlake lined up in perfect stats position.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 1.2pts win and place FRED WILLETTS (2.10 Ayr)
BET 3.4pts win CHRISTOPHER WREN and 1.3pts win (stakes saver) OLYMPIAN BOY (2.50 Sandown)
BET 12pts win (nap) MERRION SQUARE (3.25 Sandown)
BET 1.1pts win and place GREENLAW (4.00 Sandown)
BET 1.3pts win and place TIMPO (4.45 Leicester)
BET 2.4pts win and place THE TIGER (7.10 Wolverhampton)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points so, if you divide 20 by his stake you will know the BETDAQ offer he took.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
