DAQMAN CLAIMS AN EDGE OVER THE LAYERS TODAY: Horses with big chances ridden by claimers and so getting bags of weight. That’s Daqman’s Plan A for victory at the jumps meetings on heavy ground today. But, as he says, there’s always Plan B: following the offers and amending your position all through the day.
CHRISTMAS-BOX DAQ MULTIPLES: Daqman tries to build a bank for the Christmas betting season with Daq Multiples on the three he’s chosen for outright bets across the cards. But he needs two punts at the staying chase at Ffos Las, the ‘best race of the day.’
Weight will count double in the mud wherever you race over jumps today. So I’m looking to a couple of apprentices to bring their mounts down to a featherweight in the longer heats, where pounds on the back will create even more pressure on tired horses in the closing stages.
The 2m 5f of the 1.30 hurdle will seem like a marathon for young novices at Plumpton but less so for Water Wagtail, trained by super-in-form Emma Lavelle, four winners in a row still standing.
Emma will be keen to get a win out of this son of the stable’s successful race-mare, Kentford Grey Lady, and she has a 10lb claimer to boost his chances.
The 10lb off takes Wagtail’s weight to 17lb below that having to be carried by previous Rules winners in the race, an unfair advantage but fair enough for punters at 4.9 in a 105% orange on BETDAQ this morning.
On a similar day for sloggers and plodders at the corresponding Plumptious meeting last year, five races on the card were won by claiming riders.
The obvious candidate for cash on heavy ground with valuable claiming weight off his back is Guydus (2.05): the going was too quick for this soft-surface winner last time out.
He’s 1lb out of the handicap today but Harry Challoner’s 5lb therefore gives him four lengths over the handicapper’s verdict on his ability in another marathon contest, chasing a prize over 3m 2f.
At Ffos Las, David Pipe produced a decent sort in Gevrey Chambertin in the bumper (3.35) on the corresponding 2011 card and word has it that Vieux Lion Rouge can follow up.
The ‘Old Red Lion’ is, in fact, a young French recruit, related to Listed winners in his home country, and the market says he’s in very little danger this afternoon. Cog of a Christmas-box tilt on Daq Multiples.
They’re claiming off three of the six runners in the best race of the day, the class-3 handicap chase (2.45) at Ffos Las, in which every runner has won one of his last three starts.
It’s a very hard race to bet in, made easier for punters by the 105% total probability of the offers. That’s friendly. But the form ain’t so friendly.
You have to guess whether Volador has his jumping together after a break since failing for lack of fluency when well backed at Worcester. I think his big weight will anchor him.
You have to watch the market concerning Master Neo: the only time there was money for him in the autumn, he won at Uttoxeter on the heavy; otherwise he was unfancied at 150-1 and 20-1.
Was it all planned or just a lucky punt? I’m inclined to decide against any idea of a coup, since the race was run so slowly the ambulance driver could have stopped for a minute for a cup of tea half way round (actually, they ran more than 48 seconds above average).
A P McCoy is busy at Plumpton, so Rebecca Curtis, who landed me a Friday nap at 11-4 (At Fishers Cross), thankyou very much, is claiming off Benheir, who blundered his chance away behind Master Neo at Newbury.
Siberian Tiger seems to want a sound surface, but Incentivise loves the mud and is on a roll.
However, he has Kaybeew breathing down his neck, better off at the weights for a first-run-back third to Incentivise over further a month ago. Should be sharper now but Incentivise has 5lb off for Michael Nolan and Sam Twiston-Davies may wish he still had his claim. That’s where I came in.
But for several weeks now I’ve been pointing up the value of betting in BETDAQ lists of offers in the orange with probability totals of less than 110%.
This one works out at a 105% orange, which allows me the luxury of backing Kaybeew and spending a couple of points saving on Incentivise. Of course, whether or not you get value on your particular this morning, the Daq offers change and the position you took can be redeemed or strengthened right up to the ‘off’ and beyond. Good luck building your Christmas bank.
DAQMAN’S BETS
DAQ VALUE: BET 5.1pts win WATER WAGTAIL (1.30 Plumpton)
DAQ VALUE: BET 9.3pts win (nap) GUYDUS (2.05 Plumpton)
DAQ VALUE: BET 8pts win KAYBEEW and 2.4pts win (stakes saver) ICENTIVISE (2.45 Ffos Las)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 1pt win treble: WATER WAGTAIL (1.30 Plumpton), GUYDUS (2.05 Plumpton) and VIEUX LION ROUGE (3.45 Ffos Las)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by the stake). This does not apply to Daq Multiples. Daq Value races are those today averaging around 105% probability total.
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