4-1 DAQMAN NAP: IT MUST BE CHAMPIONS DAY: King of the tipsters Daqman hit form for today’s big Champions Day meet at Newmarket with the nap on Sire Collonges (WON 4-1) at Cheltenham yesterday. Just look at his Saturday-Sunday record this autumn!
BIG-RACE BONANZA INCLUDES 16-1 SCORER: In successive weekends, Daqman has had the winners of the Ayr Gold Cup (Captain Ramius, WON 16-1), the Cambridgeshire (Bronze Angel, WON 9-1) and, with Skilful and Voleuse de Coeurs (both WON 6-1), the Ascot Challenge and the Irish Cesarewitch.
Frankel’s famous colours are unlikely to get dirty today. It’s hard to see the ground holding him as his rivals scramble in the kickback behind. I’ve had one crack at him this season: so have 93 horses in 13 races since August, 2010, to no avail. We’ll never see another in our lifetime.
Backers had an early bonus from punter-friendly BETDAQ this morning when offers on five Ascot races in a row each added up to only between 101 and 105% total probability. That means you are betting as near as a few pence on a level playing-field.
The SP of the same races at the equivalent meeting last year reveal that the bookmakers took between 114 and 118%, which is their way of extracting pounds, not pence, from every bet you place.
1.45 Ascot (Long Distance Cup) Two Gold Cup winners and twice runner-up Opinion Poll against last year’s winner of this, Fame And Glory. What a race!
But age may finally have caught up with Fame And Glory, while injury has too often sidelined Rite Of Passage (2010 Gold), and there are ground worries for Colour Vision (2012 Gold); he doesn’t mind soft but doesn’t want heavy.
The market among bookmakers had four horses cramped between 11-4 and 11-2 in several places in contrast to BETDAQ this morning, where it was clear to see that Opinion Poll was well ahead of play but that Aiken was strong in opposition.
A young, comparatively fresh horse, Aiken has looked all over a two-miler in his races this year, loves it soft-heavy and may be able to take advantage of horses jaded by the baggage of a long Cup season.
2.20 Ascot (Champions Sprint) Again I want a young blood. There has been only one winner over the age of four in the decade, and all 33 starters aged six and over have been beaten.
Again I want a relatively fresh horse: no more than seven runs this season, say the stats. And again I need one that goes on soft-heavy ground.
The short-list must therefore, be Restiadargent, Slade Power, Society Rock and Wizz Kid, who has just won Abbaye and has had all his success over the minimum. This is 6f.
However, Wizz Kid ran second over a furlong and a half further to Moonlight Cloud in August, Society Rock having run up to the same filly the year before. Whatever the ground, Restiadargent seems to remain a ‘nearly horse’ and Slade Power is no better than Listed class so far.
Society Rock has to be trained for peaks, has had a well-spaced year and been primed for this so may just hold off the attentions of Wizz Kid, who’s had just a fortnight to recover from the Abbaye.
2.30 Cheltenham No outright favourite has won this for 10 years, but the new market leader as I write will be hard to beat off his featherweight: That’lldoboy will do for many. Maybe too many, in that he will quickly lose value, price wise.
And there is another potential gamble in the race, Mad Moose, though easy to back at 17.0 on BETDAQ as I write. He won his last race here at Cheltenham over a furlong further.
Nigel Twiston-Davies has recently saddled three heavily backed horses on their first run back in this; two of them won: Knowhere (9-2) in 2007 and Billie Magern (11-2) last year.
Gordon Elliott likes to go on the attack at this meeting but Jamsie Hall, though best of the Irish, has never won at this level, and I shall take as my second string the Henderson mare, Nadiya De La Vega, a big price (12.0) because her stamina is not known. A dry day and A P McCoy will help.
2.55 Ascot (Fillies And Mares) Dancing Rain and Sapphire are fresh for this, and may turn over the Lancashire and Irish Oaks winner, Great Heavens, a fine sixth in the Arc but with the worry that today’s race comes too soon.
Dancing Rain was also a dual Oaks winner last year (Epsom Oaks and German) and it will be a great feat of training to bring her back, whereas Sapphire is the filly on the upgrade, 3-3 over today’s trip, and loves the mud.
3.30 Ascot (Queen Elizabeth 11 Stakes) Three-year-olds are six out of 10 in this, and 25 second-season animals have won in 40 years. So I see no reason to change my mind about Elusive Kate: I took 7.8 on Thursday to win 20 points.
I need her to improve on Deauville form as the younger animal and for the soft ground she will like, but Excelebration quickens off heavy so will be hard to beat.
4.05 Ascot (Champion Stakes) A dry night at Ascot has taken the drama out of Frankel’s latest walkover. Well, it’s not quite that but so far he’s been the Rolls Royce to the season’s Reliant Robins and has been getting away from them soon after halfway.
He’s faced the same old same older horses and the three-year-olds haven’t even flickered his flame, though maybe the German Derby winner, Pastorius, who has been within a length of 2011 Arc winner, Danedream, can restore something of their usual wind of change.
A fabulous 7.4 the place on BETDAQ, as I write (58.0 the win in case 2012 really is the end of the world as we know it, which in racing terms is the world according to Frankel).
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.6pts win AIKEN (1.45 Ascot)
BET 6.6pts win (nap) SOCIETY ROCK (2.20 Ascot)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 1.8pts win and place MAD MOOSE, 2.75pts win NADIYA DE LA VEGA, and 1.5pts win (stakes saver) THAT’LLDOBOY (2.30 Cheltenham)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 8.8pts win SAPPHIRE and 5pts win DANCING RAIN, with 3.2pts win (stakes saver) GREAT HEAVENS (2.55 Ascot)
ANTE-POST (last Thursday): BET 2..5pts win ELUSIVE KATE (3.30 Ascot)
BET 0.5pts win and 3.1pts a place PASTORIUS (4.05 Ascot)
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