MAGNANIMITY: THAT’S THE WORD FOR BETDAQ HENNESSY VALUE: Daqman stands by Harry The Viking for today’s Hennessy Gold Cup but finds another offer of 20.0 is magnanimous in the punter-friendly value list in the BETDAQ orange.
‘RED’ FLAGS UP THE NAP AT NEWCASTLE: His nap is Red Rocco at Newcastle early in the afternoon, so get on the Daq now! He also reckons the McCoy mount At Fishers Cross at Newbury.
Can the two Harrys bounce back? Harry Redknapp has already made his mark on the betting markets by having bottom club QPR favourite to win against Villa today. ‘Harry’ the horse has to bounce back from twice pulled up but his trainer says he has a ‘great each-way shout’ in the Hennessy Gold Cup, though out to 29.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
2.00 Newbury From huge odds to skinny. Big Buck’s is back. This would be a winning reappearance for the fourth year running, but I’ve already been ‘buying money’ at this meeting by napping Dynaste at a value 4-9.
To win 8 points from Dynaste, you needed a stake of 18. To win 8 points from Big Buck’s you will probably require an outlay of 80, which, I believe, is not within the remit of selection by a tipster. My profit target is 20 points, so you’d need 200. That’s at 10-1 on; and he could be shorter.
But, if your wallet allows, why not: the lesson is that so-called certainties have to be paid for. But do you have the nerve to watch 200, 2,000 or 20,000 of your money jump 3m round Newbury with him?
To arrive at some judgment of value, you have to ask yourself how many times in 100 races like today’s would Big Buck’s win, barring accident.
‘Pricing up’ (deciding what odds you will accept) is an essential for professional betting. But that word ‘accident’, and another word ‘error’, have to be incorporated in your assessment. ‘Accident’ to, or by, the horse; ‘error’ by you.
Whatever price you reckon for any horse, it is wise to add a point for accident or error, or if you want a computer to produce probability from your alghorithms, ask it to do so at 80% not 100%.
2.20 Newcastle (Fighting Fifth Hurdle) Is Cinders And Ashes in the same betting mould as Dynaste? The bookies went 4-5 and 4-6 this morning. BETDAQ was 92-100 which, in a 100.2% list of offers, represented 12% or so better value.
Don McCain’s Champion Hurdle hope is not top rated; officially he is on 151 to Countryside Flame’s 152. The going poses the biggest question.
Would ‘Cinders’ have beaten Trifolium at Cheltenham when they were first and third in the Supreme Novices, had the ground been soft? The good surface seemed very much against Trifolium who, nevertheless, got within a length and a half of the winner.
The form of the race looks solid: the second horse went on to win the Top Novices Hurdle at Aintree, beating subsequent new novice-chase star, Captain Conan.
The Triumph Hurdle winner, Countrywide Flame is racecourse fit (second in the Cesarewitch); Cinders And Ashes hasn’t been out since March, and Don McCain is not totally happy about the ground, while Trifolium has had a sub-standard run back.
Countrywide Flame likes to set the pace and, as a stayer, he will want to kick on; that makes his fitness a big advantage. At the offers available, he was the better bet this morning at 4.7. If you knew Trifolium was back to his Cheltenham form, 5.6 would be a crazy price but I couldn’t take 1.93 ‘Cinders’.
2.35 Newbury Tony McCoy’s mount, At Fishers Cross looked a good bet, stepped up in trip, at 6.2 on BETDAQ this morning in a punter-friendly 106% list of offers. By Oscar out of a Supreme Leader mare, he’s bred to go round again.
Ardlui has won on the course but disappointed afterwards; maybe the return to soft ground will suit. Salubrious will be much sharper for his run back but won first time last season, which is a bit of a ‘wrinkle.’
Princely Player has to give my selection a stone and I’m not convinced he’s earned that rank in the ratings. Kincora is an unknown quantity – but an ‘error’ potential that must be acknowledged in your ‘pricing up’ – though he’s drifted like a lonely dog on a raft to 24.0, as I write.
3.10 Newbury (Hennessy Gold Cup) ‘Massive task’ and ‘great each-way shout’. That’s Paul Nicholls on Tidal Bay and Harry The Viking, yet ‘Harry’, who is 3-3 under Daryl Jacobs, has eased from the 24.0 I took ante-post to 29.0 on BETDAQ this morning. I had another pound in a magnificent 103% list in the orange.
My ABC Guide on Thursday (see Daqman Archive) also recommended Saint Are and Duke Of Lucca on the grounds that they are the right age in the right weights zone.
The ‘Duke’ has been given a chance to turn round the Ascot form with Roberto Goldback (Alfie Spinner), but many racereaders thought Frisco Depot would have won but for failing three out.
And Sam Waley-Cohen, smarting from those critics who reckon him an amateur not worthy of the Long Run ride, will be out to settle their hash today.
While Frisco Depot is a strong order this morning, Saint Are, better than the bare form-figures if you delete his Cheltenham efforts (he didn’t take to that track), and Duke Of Lucca are easy to back at 20.0 and 26.0 respectively on the Daq, mainly in the face of support for Hold On Julio, in to 10.0, and as short as 6-1 with Ladbrokes.
But he’s another who normally wins first time back and, at age nine, he would have to ‘do a Denman’ (only one other nine-year-old has won in 18 years). If there’s anything of that quality in the field, it’s more likely to be Bobs Worth, who was imposing at Cheltenham, and has already accounted for First Lieutenant and Alfie Spinner.
I’m not sure The Package can put back-to-back wins together but, if it remains as soft as yesterday, a revitalised Magnanimity is ‘running loose’ off his light weight, and 20.0 BETDAQ offers were indeed magnanimous.
DAQMAN’S BETS
DAQ VALUE BET: 7.5pts win (nap) RED ROCCO (12.05 Newcastle)
DAQ VALUE BET: 5.4pts win COUNTRYWIDE FLAME (2.20 Newcastle)
DAQ VALUE BET: 3.8pts win AT FISHERS CROSS (2.35 Newbury)
DAQ VALUE BET: WIN-30 JACKPOT 2.8pts win FRISCO DEPOT and 1.5pts win MAGNANIMITY; already win-30 ante-post (1.3pts) HARRY THE VIKING but double that with 1pt win and place at 29.0. Plus 1.3pts win (all-stakes saver) BOBS WORTH) in the 3.10 Newbury (Hennessy Gold Cup).
HORSES TO FOLLOW Cinders And Ashes (2.20 Newbury), Harry The Viking (3.10 Newbury)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by the stake), though jackpot bets are bigger stakes for a bigger return. Daq Value means the list of offers for the race added up to a total probability of 106% or less this morning.
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